Expert analysis: even if the EU banned meat and bone meal, soybean stocks will still increase

OA show ('918 '); since last week, stimulated by the news that meat and bone meal is banned in mainland Europe, the price of soybean market, especially soybean meal, has risen significantly Soybean meal also set a new contract high because the market believed that exports of soybeans and soybean meal to Europe would increase to replace the demand for meat and bone meal Since the discovery of BSE in France at the beginning of this month, BSE has spread rapidly in the European continent Last week, Germany and Spain announced the discovery of the first case of BSE At present, France, Italy and Germany have announced the ban on meat and bone meal The use of meat and bone meal in cattle feed has been banned in Europe since 1994 and is likely to be fully banned in pig, poultry and fish feed Many countries are already destroying bone meal On December 4, the European Union is expected to vote to announce a ban on bone meal It is believed that the new demand for soybean meal may be as high as 4.5 million tons, but most traders say that plant protein will increase by nearly 3 million tons, usually replacing 2-2.5 million tons of bone meal More traders believe that the demand for bone meal can be reduced by 700000-900000 tons at most, which can cause a new increase of 500000-2 million tons of soybean meal On Thursday, the European Union's agriculture commissioner said it estimated that the EU would need to import 1.5 million tons of protein feed during the half year ban Before March next year, the supply of South American market appears to be tight If meat and bone meal is banned in Europe as a whole, nearly 3 million tons of soybeans will be needed every year to meet the replacement demand It must be noted that the end of the year inventory in the United States is still estimated to increase by 1.7 million tons and that in Brazil by 2 million tons
In the 99 / 00 market year [as of September 30], the export volume of soybean meal from the United States to Europe was only 170000 tons, compared with 412000 tons in the same period of last year, a decrease of 3% However, the export volume of soybean increased rapidly In 1999 / 00, 7.182 million tons of American soybean were purchased by Europe, higher than 6.246 million tons in the previous year The oil extraction industry in Europe grew rapidly and will continue to develop in the future.