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European wheat market: French wheat prices rise, focusing on Black Sea deal prospects

 Last Update: 2022-11-25
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

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Foreign media news on November 13: In the 44th week of 2022, the spot price of wheat in France rose, and the focus of market attention was on the prospects
for negotiations on the Black Sea agreement.

As of Thursday (Nov.
10), the delivery price of first-grade French wheat at the French port of Rouen was $340/mt, up $3 from a week ago
.
The price range over the past 52 weeks has ranged from $308 to $
472 per tonne.

Second-grade wheat prices in Argentina's upper river were $411/mt on Thursday, down $2 from a week ago; U.
S.
No.
2 hard red winter wheat was $421/mt, down $6; U.
S
.
No.
2 soft red winter wheat was down $14 at $361/mt.
On Euronext Paris, the most actively traded December wheat futures closed at 327.
25 euros / mt on Friday, down 3.
6% from a week ago; Chicago wheat futures fell 4.
1%
over the same period.

Rabobank analyst Paul Joles said that outside the Black Sea, one of the main factors affecting wheat prices is the weakening
of the dollar.
As far as the European market is concerned, people are waiting for the outcome of
the negotiations on an agreement on the Black Sea grain export corridor.

European traders are also eyeing the tender for 595,000 mt of wheat in Saudi Arabia, which is expected to face stiff competition from Russian wheat, which is currently quoted very cheaply because of the country's bumper wheat production
this year.
However, the reduction in Argentina's wheat production could reduce competition for EU wheat, including in African markets
.

France's soft wheat exports to outside the EU are expected to be 10 million mt in 2022/23, slightly down from the 10.
1 million mt forecast last month, FranceAgriMer, France's crop office under the French Ministry of Agriculture said Nov.
10.

Total French soft wheat exports in 2022/23 are expected to be 17.
1 million mt, down from 17.
3 million mt forecast last month.

Wheat ending stocks are expected at 2.
56 million mt, up from 2.
13 million mt
forecast last month.

On October 27, the European Commission lowered EU wheat production for 2021/22 by 1 million mt and slightly raised its 2022/23 wheat production forecast, leaving export expectations unchanged
.

EU wheat production in 2021/22 was revised down to 129.
07 million mt, down from 130.
13 million mt forecast last month, and EU soft wheat production in 2022/23 was revised up to 127.
19 million mt, up from 127.
04 million mt
forecast last month, the report showed.

EU soft wheat export expectations for 2022/23 remain unchanged at 36 million mt, up from 29.
25 million mt in 2021/22 (previous month's forecast of 29.
26 million mt).

EU soft wheat ending stocks for 2022/23 were lowered to 13.
72 million mt due to lower opening stocks and an expected increase in feed use, down from 14.
53 million mt forecast last month and down from 15.
61 million mt last year (previous month's forecast of 16.
57 million mt).

On October 20, analyst firm Strategic Grains released its monthly report, once again raising its EU wheat production forecast for 2022/23, while raising its wheat export forecast
.
Strategic Grains expects the EU soft wheat harvest for 2022/23 (July-June) to be 125.
5 million mt, 1.
4 million mt higher than its September forecast but still down from the previous year's 129.
8 million mt
.
A strong pace of exports at the start of the year, coupled with higher production revisions, raised the 2022/23 EU soft wheat export forecast by 2.
3 million mt to 31.
1 million mt this month.

Strategic Grains said the EU is also importing wheat from Ukraine, so EU wheat stocks are expected to remain at
very comfortable levels.

In France, the 2023 harvest of soft wheat is now 63% progressive, up from 58%
in the same period last year.

On October 12, FranceAgriMer, the agricultural office of the French Ministry of Agriculture, raised its 2022/23 export forecast for French soft wheat to outside the EU to 10.
1 million mt, up from 10 million mt forecast last month and up 15%
from the previous year.
French wheat exports benefited from high demand during the summer period as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict disrupted Black Sea exports
.
FranceAgriMer forecasts French wheat exports to EU member states at 7.
07 million mt this year, down from an earlier forecast of 7.
13 million mt and 12%
lower than in 2021/22.
French soft wheat ending stocks at the end of June 2023 are forecast at 2.
13 million mt, down from 2.
36 million mt expected last month, mainly due to lower production revisions
.

FranceAgriMer, part of the French Ministry of Agriculture, said on September 22 that the average protein content of French soft wheat this year was 11.
4%, down from the average of 11.
9%
in the previous five years.
Despite the effects of the dry and hot weather in the spring and summer, the wheat quality was generally very satisfactory
, the report said.
About 59% of the crops are of excellent
quality.

EU27 wheat exports stood at 12.
52 million mt in 2022/23 (July-June) as of November 6, compared with 11.
54 million mt the previous week and 11.
92 million mt
a year earlier, European Commission data showed.
The top buyer was Algeria (1.
68 million mt, 13.
4%)
.
Wheat imports so far this year were 2.
48 million mt, compared with 2.
24 million mt the week before and 960,000 mt
a year earlier.
Ukraine is the number one supplier (1.
51 million tons, 60.
6%)

In 2021/22, the wheat export volume of the EU-27 reached 27.
47 million tons, an increase of 6.
84% year-on-year; The import volume was 2.
46 million tons, an increase of 21.
49%
year-on-year.

Investment funds and financial institutions held a net long 77,320 contracts in the Euronext milling wheat futures and options market as of Nov.
4, down from 71,632 a week earlier
, Euronext holdings data showed.

On Friday, the euro closed at $1.
0362 to the dollar, after a week earlier it was 0.
996 to the dollar
.

Note: 1 euro is equal to 1.
0362 US dollars

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