Eggs are crazy too! After the plunge, a month soared by more than 60%, egg chicken.

Egg prices, which fell all the way to near lying lows in the first half of this year, soared in the past July, and domestic egg and chicken farming changed the previously sustained loss situation and entered a full-scale profit period. Egg prices rose by more than 60% in January "in the first half of 2017, the price of eggs in the production area generally fell below 2 yuan per kilogram, is a historical low in recent years, in addition to the first half of this year, the price of eggs has been a low level in recent years, so the current egg prices rose so rapidly, beyond the industry expectations.
" talked about the trend of domestic egg prices in July, Zhuotron analyst Zhu Zekun said that the average price of eggs in early July is still 2.38 yuan / catty, but has now reached a relative high of 4.1 yuan - 4.2 yuan / catty.
egg prices in a short period of time such a large increase phenomenon, in the past is not very common.
statistics show that as of July 29, the average price of eggs in the main production area rose to 3.99 yuan / catty, up 1.61 yuan / catty from the beginning of the month, the cumulative increase of 67.65 percent, especially in the second half, the rise further increased, some areas of the daily rise of 0.2-0.3 yuan / catty, in addition to the northeast and parts of Hebei, other production areas have risen to more than 4 yuan / catty.
Although the domestic futures market on August 3, the main contract of eggs fell, but the spot market egg prices still maintained the upward trend.
According to agricultural products futures network data, August 3 around the wholesale market fresh egg prices generally rose, Beijing, Shanghai and other large wholesale market egg prices increased by 0.2 yuan - 0.5 yuan / jin from the previous day.
demand peak multi-factor support rise" due to high temperature when the egg-laying rate is relatively low, normal eggs in July began to enter the peak season, prices will rise.
plus in August downstream factories due to the follow-up to the holiday and other factors began to prepare, the market buy up not buy down the mentality is obvious, with the strength of egg prices, dealers hoarding willingness is obvious, but also pushed up the price of eggs.
" For the reasons for the significant upmarket egg prices in the past month, business community Yuejia because of the analysis.
Zhu Zekun also believes that the current round of egg price increases are caused by a combination of factors.
due to high temperatures, the summer egg-laying rate generally fell by about 5%, the market supply has declined.
in addition to the rainy season in the south in July, the quality of eggs is not good, from the production area transport easy deterioration.
but from mid-July the rainy season relief, dealers procurement enthusiasm increased, demand will be correspondingly picked up.
" due to the first half of the egg and chicken breeding continued to be in the loss, breeding units to fill the column less and gradually eliminate the old chicken, especially in May and June more concentrated amount of chicken, resulting in the current 450 days of age or more of the proportion of eggs and chickens, the number of newly opened eggs and chickens is also limited, coupled with high temperature weather egg-laying rate generally declined, egg supply decreased. Liu Mei, an analyst at
" also said that the recent floods in many areas of the south, high prices of fruits and vegetables, egg prices have been boosted.
in addition to the recent pig prices are at a high level, as of the 29th, the national average price of three yuan 37.8 yuan / kg, white-striped pork factory price in 45 yuan / kg or more, pork prices high on egg prices also formed a certain support.
experienced a half-year trough period, all links hope to rise mentality are strong, egg prices rise, some parts of the production link to sell, circulation link procurement volume increased enthusiasm, increased acquisition volume, dealers more active performance, to promote egg prices higher.
farmers generally into the profit period around November 2019, the domestic egg prices once rushed to nearly 6 yuan / catty high, so that egg farmers once earned a pot full.
but since then egg prices continued to dive, and after this year's Spring Festival continued to maintain low prices, aquaculture enterprises are also in a long-term loss-making state.
" at present only feed costs, the cost per kilogram of eggs in about 2.8 yuan.
this year only before and after the Qingming Festival egg prices have ten days in 3 yuan / catty, and July 1 production area average price is still 2.38 yuan / catty, so including Hebei, Northeast and other places in the production area farmers in this year's Spring Festival to the beginning of July are basically in a loss-making state.
but now, the industry's general profitability situation has been formed, and the level of profitability is still considerable.
," Zhu said.
according to ZhuoTron information on the country's main production area 47 key markets inventory statistics, in July, the country's main production area of egg inventory showed a continuous downward trend.
in July newly opened eggs and chickens are mainly in February-March 2020 to fill the column of chicken seedlings, affected by poor market circulation, February breeding units wait-and-see sentiment is stronger, the intention of the supplement column is not high, and in March, although the sales of chicken seedlings have a restorative improvement, but year-on-year are significantly reduced situation, so the new production of new sources of limited, small-code egg supply pressure is not large.
on the other hand, the hot and hot egg-laying rate is low level, the local market eliminated 200-300 days of low egg-laying rate of eggs and chickens, production capacity has been reduced, so most production areas of supply is slightly tight.
demand, in July, the quality of eggs in the southern market improved, and by the impact of the buying mentality, traders to fill the position enthusiasm to increase, the northern domestic market to speed up the goods, circulation link inventory gradually reduced.
a comprehensive view, this month's production, circulation of the inventory decreased month-on-month. In
month, the average production sector had 1.55 days of inventory, down 19.69 percent month-on-month, while the circulation sector had an average of 0.88 days of inventory, a decrease of 17.76 percent month-on-month. will egg prices continue to rise in August
? Recently, egg futures prices down the background, egg prices in the third quarter of the industry peak season still has upward space? Zhu Zekun believes that although egg futures prices guide the spot market price, but the long-term look at the spot price or there is room to rise.
because of the school started in August, september pro-Mid-Autumn Festival involves manufacturers to prepare in advance, the general egg in the third quarter will enter the highest point of demand throughout the year, now the price of the production area is basically 4.1-4.2 yuan / catty, to late August, should be expected to reach 4.5 yuan / catty, but in recent days or there is a risk of a correction.
but Liu Mei also said that although there are many positive boosts, but terminal consumption has not substantially improved, the rise in egg prices in July is obviously driven by the production area, but the market high prices are difficult to sell, egg prices rise weak.
as of July 29, the average price of the sales area 3.98 yuan / catty, lower than the average price of the production area 0.01 yuan / catty, the phenomenon of production and sales upside down, which will to a certain extent curb the rate of egg prices rise.
into August, the demand side will improve, food factories in the Mid-Autumn advance stock procurement volume increased, the end of the year has a good start to boost, demand will gradually be weak.
supply, although in the short term, the enthusiasm of breeding units to buy chickens has not significantly improved, but the high temperature under the egg production rate further decline, the supply of eggs is difficult to significantly increase.
overall, egg prices will continue to show a volatile upward trend in August.
Yuejia in also believe that the price of eggs in August still has room to rise, the late elimination of chicken column volume is the main factor affecting egg production, if the farm end in August and September appear super-naughty, is expected to support the trend of egg prices, if the normal elimination or consumption growth is less than expected, then egg prices will still be suppressed by strong supply.
Nanhua Futures Research Report believes that due to the recent sharp rise in egg prices, the downstream market for the rapid rise in egg prices there is a certain resistance, and high temperature egg storage is not easy, downstream terminal in the replenishment of part of the inventory, the pace of procurement slows down, wait-and-see sentiment increased.
in addition, some egg merchants in the early stage have to do cold storage, recently with the rising prices, one after another out of the warehouse, so today's egg price rise significantly slowed down.
but corn prices continue to rise, farm costs increase, farmers in the absence of inventory pressure in the case of the willingness to raise prices is still strong, later with the arrival of the summer, eggs and chickens into the break, egg production rate or continue to decline, is expected to late egg prices or there is still room for rise.
.