Effect of BSE on feed market (12.9)

OA show ('918'); on November 14th, the French Prime Minister announced that France will temporarily stop using meat and bone meal as animal feed, including poultry, pigs, fish and pets The temporary ban came into force on November 15, and will remain in force forever if it is approved by the French Food Safety Commission (afssa) The ban means that more than 870000 tons of meat and bone meal will be burned or stored On November 16, the European parliament held a meeting in strasburgh, urging European countries to stop the use of animal products on a large scale in the feed market, and requiring EU-15 countries to implement all recommended measures to combat BSE On November 17, the Italian government announced that it would ban the use of bone meal and meat meal in animal feed On November 17, the European Commission now asked EU agriculture ministers on November 20 to confirm whether their countries have fully implemented the provisions aimed at controlling yak disease, or BSE On November 26, Germany also announced that it would prohibit all feeds containing bone meal and meat meal from being used in livestock feed, which will take effect from November 29 On November 28, the Czech Republic and Greece joined in the boycott of French beef imports for fear of mad cow disease For a time, mad cow disease became the focus of feed market, which brought about the fear of using meat and bone meal in feed, which promoted the price of soybean, soybean meal and corn in the international market to go up, especially soybean meal In the short period from November 14 to 24, the corn price in Chicago market increased by 3 cents / bushel, the soybean price increased by 23 cents / bushel, and the soybean meal price increased by 7 dollars / short ton So, what kind of disease is mad cow disease? Why? "Mad cow disease" is a disease of cattle The brain of cattle attacked by the virus becomes spongy, which is literally "a brain paste", so they go mad and die in pain If the disease is confined to cattle, things will be better In fact, people who eat beef with mad cow virus may suffer from a similar disease, namely "new Creutzfeldt Jakob disease" Moreover, in the past, experts thought that the incubation period might be about 15 years, but at the end of October, a 14-year-old boy in Britain died of "new Creutzfeldt Jakob disease", which caused suspicion and increased panic   According to the estimation of the Scientific Steering Committee of the European Commission, "mad cow disease" is unlikely to occur in Europe only in Finland, Austria and Sweden Belgium, Denmark, Germany, France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Spain are likely to have this disease, but the most likely countries are Britain and Portugal The EU imports about 20 million tons of soybean meal every year, which is the largest soybean meal market in the world, accounting for 50% of the world's soybean meal imports Once the EU has formed a unified policy to prohibit the use of meat and bone meal as animal feed, experts estimate that the demand for plant protein will increase by 3-2.5 million tons, thus forming a stable support for the price of plant meal Oil world expects 2.15 million tons of soybean meal to replace the meat and bone meal feed if it is banned in the EU However, soybean meal can not completely replace meat and bone meal, because soybean meal and meat and bone meal are two kinds of different feed varieties The crude protein content of American soybean meal is the highest, generally between 45-48%, and that of South American soybean meal is generally between 42-46% However, meat and bone meal is not It is mainly composed of calcium and trace elements The crude protein is generally between 5% and 18% (depending on the animal quality and usage of meat and bone meal), but the maximum protein content should not exceed 20% Therefore, from the perspective of intuitive data, there is a large difference between the two (about 45% and 15%) in the content of crude eggs, which can not be completely replaced, but can only be partially replaced The complete elimination of the replacement of meat and bone meal with soybean meal involves the direct interests of farmers and feed processors in European countries, and greatly increases the cost of feed, so it will be fully opposed by producers At the same time, the European Union's proposal to abolish the use of soybean meal as a substitute for meat and bone meal is only one paper The 15 countries have not fully agreed to sign it There are still many interests to be weighed in order to reach consensus, and there is still a long way to go It will take time for a real agreement to be fully formed The EU is scheduled to hold a meeting on November 29 to study the import of animal feed, discuss the restrictions on the import of animal feed, and explore whether to establish some relevant laws and regulations In addition, some members of the European Union believe that the measures taken by the agricultural sector to restrict the import of BSE did not fundamentally solve the current problem Therefore, another major topic of this meeting is the intention to formulate more stringent restrictive policies on this issue Demand for meat, especially beef, has declined in France as a result of the recent mad cow disease If this becomes a long-term phenomenon, the demand for animal feed and oil meal in France will also decrease If the BSE event continues to expand, it will be long-term good news for soybean meal and corn in the international market Soybean meal price will rise due to the increase of demand, and corn price will rise driven by soybean meal price However, the current supply and demand pattern cannot be fundamentally changed In particular, the impact of BSE on China's feed market, because China rarely uses imported meat and bone meal in feed, so there is no need to worry about the occurrence of BSE in China On the contrary, the increase of corn price in the international market caused by BSE is beneficial to China's corn export, because China's corn price advantage in the international market will be more obvious; but at the same time, it also increases the import cost of China's soybean and soybean meal, which is not conducive to the domestic oil crushing industry.