Dynamic analysis of soybean market price in China

Introduction: this week's soybean price is basically the same as last week As of the 10th of this month, the price of the third class national standard soybeans in the eastern reclamation area of Heilongjiang Province is 1800 yuan / ton, and the price of the first class soybeans in Huangchuan, Henan Province is 2250 yuan / ton; the above price is consistent with that in late September After nearly three months of decline, soybean prices have finally flattened, and whether the market can reverse this has become the focus For the analysis of soybean price, we should not be the retail investors in the stock market, but only catch up with the rise and fall We should look at the overall situation, clarify our thinking, and examine the current market pattern from multiple perspectives 1 The advantages and disadvantages of GMO China's soybean market is not only the focus of the domestic industry, but also the goal of international attention Although China's accession to the WTO has become a foregone conclusion, the negotiations on the soybean trade in the United States are still continuing The disputes between China and the United States mainly come from the "genetically modified regulations" Since the Chinese government issued the "genetically modified regulations" in June, China's soybean import to the United States has basically come to a standstill Only some coastal crushers continue to import soybeans, but there is little profit margin U.S diplomats say if the trade dispute drags on, U.S President George W Bush may protest against Chinese leaders at the APEC summit in Shanghai from October 20 to 21 The essence of GMOs is nothing more than a kind of trade barrier Its main role is to gradually change the situation of the flood of cheap imported soybeans, to some extent, alleviate the huge pressure on the domestic market caused by imported soybeans, and support the domestic soybean industry This will form a long-term good for the domestic soybean market, and it is also the main pillar for the domestic soybean price to go bull However, we can't overstate the positive effect of the regulation, because if the regulation is very strict on the import of soybeans, the cost of China's soybeans crushing industry will inevitably increase At that time, a large number of cheap foreign oil products will flow into China, thus occupying the domestic market, which is contrary to the Chinese government's consistent policy of advocating deep processing of soybeans; moreover, strict import restrictions also It will lead to international trade disputes, which is not conducive to the overall situation The Sino US soybean trade negotiation is an example Therefore, due to many restrictions, the Chinese government has not promulgated the detailed rules of the GM regulations To sum up, GM regulation is like a double sword It has a limited supporting effect on domestic soybean price We should treat it from both positive and negative aspects, rather than blindly exaggerating 2 The pressure of seasonal harvesting is increasing, and the domestic supply of sufficient domestic soybeans is on the way to market In Jiamusi, the main soybean producing area of Heilongjiang Province, new soybeans will be listed in small batches starting on September 18, two days earlier than last year Although the main soybean producing areas in China suffered from drought during spring ploughing this year, it did not have a great impact on soybean growth, and the output was basically the same as last year And some insiders said that "before the December shipment, China's demand for supply has been fully met." Sufficient domestic soybean supply has laid the foundation for stable soybean price 3 The soybean price in the United States is expected to fall Although the soybean planting area in the United States is dry in the early stage, it can be made up due to timely replanting and good climate in the later stage The output is not affected, and it is still at a historical high level The continuous decline of CBOT soybean price after the festival fully reflects this basic situation And in Friday's USDA report, which included forecasts for the average price of corn and soybeans, USDA lowered its forecast price of soybeans to $3.90-4.70/bushel, down from $4.40-5.40/bushel reported in September, down about 12.2% As the U.S has been adopting high government subsidies for soybean cultivation, regardless of the rise and fall of soybean prices, American farmers have been keen on planting soybeans, resulting in the continuous high soybean production in the United States This caused dissatisfaction from other major soybean producing countries such as Brazil and Argentina Therefore, these countries filed a complaint with the International Trade Organization on this matter Recently, it has been reported that the United States may reduce government subsidies for soybean cultivation If the decision is passed, it will raise the price of soybeans But after 9 / 11, the bill was put on hold indefinitely Another hope that US soybean prices are going to go up has been dashed The U.S is a major importer of Chinese soybeans, so the decline of U.S soybean prices will also affect the decline of Chinese soybean prices 4 The impact of China's accession to WTO has come to a complete end Because China needs to promise to reduce the degree of agricultural trade protection and gradually open the domestic agricultural product market on the basis of complying with the relevant rules of WTO, this means that it will bring risks and challenges to China's agricultural development in the process of participating in the liberalization of world agricultural trade The price of domestic soybean has always been higher than the international level, lacking of market competitiveness, so the impact will be great after China's accession to the WTO, and the passive situation will last for a period of time Combined with the above factors, soybean prices have not reversed, basically can not get rid of the pattern of lower volatility (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: