Due to the impact of spring sowing, soybean yield or increase and corn decrease.

. If there is no major natural disaster in the latter stages, corn production will decrease slightly this year, soybean production will recover, but the overall change is limited, there is no major hidden danger sharply in grain supply.wiYas early as the month before the spring sowing in 2013, concerns or expectations about "the north-east spring sowing can not go smoothly, grain production or be greatly affected" boiling. According to the estimate of the northeast, if there is no major natural disaster in the latter stages, this year's corn production will be slightly reduced, soybean production has recovered, but the overall change is limited, there is no major hidden danger sharply in the food supply.wiYproduction is higher than expectedWiYthe investigation is more complex, the usual planting direction between villages and towns is completely opposite, the seeding progress is seriously different, variety of varieties, not only dry fields to change water fields, but also corn to soybeans, change grains, seeding progress is also very far apart, so this estimate is easy to deviate. In terms of planting structure summarized as the following characteristics:wiYfirst, the structural changes are obvious. In general, dry land changed water field, corn to soybean, and corn soybean to grain situation is more common. Second, the change in area is less than the market expected. It is expected that the area under soybean cultivation in 2013 will increase by about 18% compared with last year, and the area under corn cultivation will decrease by about 7%. If we consider the impact of corn yield due to long-term reduction, assuming that the late weather is normal (no disaster is not too high temperature), then Heilongjiang province's output may only reduce 3 million to 4 million tons, soybean increase does not exceed 1 million tons, all on the domestic supply and demand balance table can not have a qualitative effect. Third, the difference between the main body of planting. Farmers on farms and large-scale parcels tend to grow corn, while small households accept soybeans because of their business practices, costs and planting habits. Farms and large farmers plan to expand their corn, but cannot be planned due to weather conditions. Fourth, planting is generally delayed by 1 to 2 weeks, individual areas need to be completed at the end of the month, reduce the long-term, will affect corn and soybean yield to a certain extent, especially increased the risk of early frost. Fifth, the overall cultivation of corn in the northeastern regions of Arongqi, Moqi and Big Poplar in northeast Inner Mongolia decreased, and the area of grains and soybeans increased. The differentiation of grain planting structure is obvious. Jilin, Liaoning and other high temperature of the main production provinces, as well as North China Huanghuai corn area is basically stable.wiYestimated that in 2013/14, if there is no major disaster in the latter stages, the domestic food supply will be generally abundant, of which the northeast indica is expected to increase significantly, soybean production increased by 10%, and corn or reduced by less than 5%. The overall increase in grain production, individual small varieties significantly reduced production.wiYsoybean planting costs rosewiYthe overall planting cost of this year has not changed much, especially the rental cost after consecutive years of jumping this year's high stability, while fertilizer prices are generally stable, corn and other popular varieties of seed prices fell sharply.corn seed prices fell sharply. Ted ameya Seeds went out of stock last year, and supply has increased significantly this year, with prices falling by 50% to 60%. Other domestic seeds also fell by varying degrees. Farms and large households recognize Tedmeya, while small households favour cheap, domestic seeds (Teda is about 2.5 times the unit price of home-branded seeds). the price of soybean seeds rose sharply in the of wiY. Last year, ordinary soybean seeds concentrated in 2.3 to 2.4 yuan / catty, this year more than 2.8 to 2.9 yuan / catty. Some farm seeds have been out of stock this year as soybean seeds have shrunk in successive sales and the size of their cultivation has declined, and demand has unexpectedly restarted this year. wiY according to the yield (dry grain) crude calculation, soybean price should be 4 times corn has an advantage. Based on the typical cost-benefit calculation above, 3.12 yuan/kg of soybeans was the same as the low-selling yield of corn before the Spring Festival last year. Soybean farming in areas with high land cost is largely unprofitable (white home labor and opportunity costs) and is risky. wiY water field yields remain the highest among field crops, with continued expansion potential for change. The grains have been in a series of soaring varieties, but the labor costs are higher, can only be concentrated in small-scale low- and medium-yielding fields. Potato cultivation is more expensive and labor-intensive. wiY the pace of market circulation change WiY in recent years farmers mainly increased varieties of corn there is a bear market, traders shipped no profit, resulting in the market procurement capacity weakened, coupled with winter high temperature and precipitation and other natural disasters, some areas in a certain stage of the problem of selling grain, thus ending farmers for corn and other related varieties of "only up and down", "the more money", "the more the market to make money" the wiY the pace of food sales may change. Early corn farmers in 2012/13 benefited highly, and grain farmers who sold grain before and after the Spring Festival were hurt and sad. This year's early sales will be either stronger than usual. Seed changes may be conducive to increased food quality. Demeithea seed supply increased, and concentrated in Demea 1, 3 rarely planted, 2 in the low-accumulation temperate substitute. The increase of precocious varieties is conducive to improving the proportion of gum corn cultivation (last autumn and winter season two inspection brought back 3 to 4 temperate belt powder corn sample quality is very poor, low capacity, high moisture, high color variability). The proportion of drying towers is still low and the transport limitations are large. The state reserve is extremely nervous. Poor quality. Production of cooperatives is popular, but is concentrated in grains and soybeans and farmed products, and the top-down implementation of maize remains difficult. wiY domestic corn near strong and weak wiY for corn, 2012/13 is a three-fold year, most traders have suffered losses, even in the case of the country's large reserves still can not relive the bull market that year' grain-hungry. So 2013/14 may be a more difficult time. For the second half of this year and after the new grain market can be judged: wiY old, the new forecast is sufficient. Old good grain difficult to find, forward pricing difficult to find rival plate, more concentrated in the hands of the middle storage, large traders inventory is far lower than usual and high cost, most of the small and medium-sized traders have cut meat to the stock. It is expected that the spread between the old and the new works will continue to open. the pace or change of the of the wiY policy. State storage inventory is too high, the warehouse capacity is too tight, on the one hand need to step up the existing inventory shipments, on the other hand, in the new quarter acquisition or will remain weak in the first half of the water acquisition. wiY the old works have not yet reached the stage of real power. About a month and a cycle. Fundamental-oriented futures are more similar to the butterfly arbitrage logic of empty C1401 and multi-C1309 and C1405, and the optimization strategy of hedging and arbitrage is formed based on this. wiY pace similar to that of 2009 and the second half of 2011, but weak consumption and diversity in supply have led to higher uncertainty than in the previous historical bull market. It is necessary for large-scale enterprises with high cost inventory to maintain a certain proportion of hedging, but must be flexible. wiY if there is no major natural disaster in the latter stages, corn production will be slightly reduced this year, soybean production has recovered, but the overall change is limited, there is no major hidden danger sharply in food supply. wiY as early as the month before the spring sowing in 2013, concerns or expectations about "the north-east spring sowing can not go smoothly, grain production or be greatly affected" boiling. According to the estimate of the northeast, if there is no major natural disaster in the latter stages, this year's corn production will be slightly reduced, soybean production has recovered, but the overall change is limited, there is no major hidden danger sharply in the food supply. wiY production is higher than expected WiY the investigation is more complex, the usual planting direction between villages and towns is completely opposite, the seeding progress is seriously different, variety of varieties, not only dry fields to change water fields, but also corn to soybeans, change grains, seeding progress is also very far apart, so this estimate is easy to deviate. In terms of planting structure summarized as the following characteristics: wiY first, the structural changes are obvious. In general, dry land changed water field, corn to soybean, and corn soybean to grain situation is more common. Second, the change in area is less than the market expected. It is expected that the area under soybean cultivation in 2013 will increase by about 18% compared with last year, and the area under corn cultivation will decrease by about 7%. If we consider the impact of corn yield due to long-term reduction, assuming that the late weather is normal (no disaster is not too high temperature), then Heilongjiang province's output may only reduce 3 million to 4 million tons, soybean increase does not exceed 1 million tons, all on the domestic supply and demand balance table can not have a qualitative effect. Third, the difference between the main body of planting. Farmers on farms and large-scale parcels tend to grow corn, while small households accept soybeans because of their business practices, costs and planting habits. Farms and large farmers plan to expand their corn, but cannot be planned due to weather conditions. Fourth, planting is generally delayed by 1 to 2 weeks, individual areas need to be completed at the end of the month, reduce the long-term, will affect corn and soybean yield to a certain extent, especially increased the risk of early frost. Fifth, the overall cultivation of corn in the northeastern regions of Arongqi, Moqi and Big Poplar in northeast Inner Mongolia decreased, and the area of grains and soybeans increased. The differentiation of grain planting structure is obvious. Jilin, Liaoning and other high temperature of the main production provinces, as well as North China Huanghuai corn area is basically stable. wiY estimated that in 2013/14, if there is no major disaster in the latter stages, the domestic food supply will be generally abundant, of which the northeast indica is expected to increase significantly, soybean production increased by 10%, and corn or reduced by less than 5%. The overall increase in grain production, individual small varieties significantly reduced production. wiY soybean planting costs rose wiY the overall planting cost of this year has not changed much, especially the rental cost after consecutive years of jumping this year's high stability, while fertilizer prices are generally stable, corn and other popular varieties of seed prices fell sharply. corn seed prices fell sharply. Ted ameya Seeds went out of stock last year, and supply has increased significantly this year, with prices falling by 50% to 60%. Other domestic seeds also fell by varying degrees. Farms and large households recognize Tedmeya, while small households favour cheap, domestic seeds (Teda is about 2.5 times the unit price of home-branded seeds). the price of soybean seeds rose sharply in the of wiY. Last year, ordinary soybean seeds concentrated in 2.3 to 2.4 yuan / catty, this year more than 2.8 to 2.9 yuan / catty. Some farm seeds have been out of stock this year as soybean seeds have shrunk in successive sales and the size of their cultivation has declined, and demand has unexpectedly restarted this year. wiY according to the yield (dry grain) crude calculation, soybean price should be 4 times corn has an advantage. Based on the typical cost-benefit calculation above, 3.12 yuan/kg of soybeans was the same as the low-selling yield of corn before the Spring Festival last year. Soybean farming in areas with high land cost is largely unprofitable (white home labor and opportunity costs) and is risky. wiY water field yields remain the highest among field crops, with continued expansion potential for change. The grains have been in a series of soaring varieties, but the labor costs are higher, can only be concentrated in small-scale low- and medium-yielding fields. Potato cultivation is more expensive and labor-intensive. wiY the pace of market circulation change WiY in recent years farmers mainly increased varieties of corn there is a bear market, traders shipped no profit, resulting in the market procurement capacity weakened, coupled with winter high temperature and precipitation and other natural disasters, some areas in a certain stage of the problem of selling grain, thus ending farmers for corn and other related varieties of "only up and down", "the more money", "the more the market to make money" the wiY the pace of food sales may change. Early corn farmers in 2012/13 benefited highly, and grain farmers who sold grain before and after the Spring Festival were hurt and sad. This year's early sales will be either stronger than usual. Seed changes may be conducive to increased food quality. Demeithea seed supply increased, and concentrated in Demea 1, 3 rarely planted, 2 in the low-accumulation temperate substitute. The increase of precocious varieties is conducive to increasing the proportion of gum corn cultivation (