Domestic wheat market will rise steadily

Introduction: it can be said that the overall situation of China's grain market in recent period is good, and the price of corn is stable Although the soybean market is affected by many factors, the price is not expected to be greatly affected, and the recent wheat market can also be said to be calm The author thinks that the price of domestic wheat will rise slowly in the stable transition The reasons are as follows: the demand for wheat increases and the inventory decreases The national grain and Oil Information Center recently predicted that the winter wheat output of this year will be 81.74 million tons, 5.38 million tons less than the previous year, and the total annual output including spring wheat is expected to be only 88 million tons China's wheat production increased from 90.81 million tons in 1989 to 123.3 million tons in 1997, and then declined year by year It was 112.5 million tons in 1998, 115 million tons in 1999, 99.63 million tons in 2000 and 93.92 million tons in 2001 This year's total output is expected to be 88 million tons Wheat production has been declining for five consecutive years, reaching 29% lower than the highest value, which is also the lowest value since 1989 In terms of wheat demand, China's annual consumption of wheat as rations is more than 100 million tons, and other consumption (including seed, processed food, loss, etc.) is generally more than 12 million tons Wheat consumption is relatively rigid, with an average annual growth rate of about 1% - 2% The annual consumption from 1998 to 2000 was 116 million tons, 117.6 million tons and 116.7 million tons respectively In terms of inventory, the U.S Department of agriculture estimated that China's wheat inventory at the beginning of 2002 was 50.48 million tons, and that at the end of 2002 was 30.98 million tons The benchmark of the data calculation is: the annual output is 94 million tons, and the consumption is 135 million tons, which is 6 million tons higher and 3.2 million tons lower than the data predicted by the national grain and oil information center If adjusted to domestic expectations, closing inventory should be 2178 (3098-6-3.2) million tons As a result, the inventory consumption ratio is only 18.6%, which is lower than the international safety factor of 20% The number of old wheat auctions decreased compared with the previous period From the second half of last year to now, the state has sold a large number of aged grain, and the state and local wheat reserves have been sold in turn Some government departments in the main wheat producing areas have issued various policies to encourage inventory reduction and sales promotion In addition, the early handling of "a" and "506" grain, these measures and behaviors have also directly led to a sharp decline in wheat stocks However, since June, the number of domestic old wheat auctions has significantly decreased compared with the previous period, mainly due to the sharp decline in domestic inventory, which also plays a supporting role in the rise of wheat prices The quality of domestic wheat has been improved Since 1999, China's wheat planting structure has been adjusted, and spring wheat and Jiangnan wheat in some areas have withdrawn from the scope of state protected price acquisition Moreover, with the auction and treatment of low-quality or aged wheat by the state, and the consumption of low-quality wheat due to the commencement of projects such as wheat alcohol conversion, there is less and less grain storage of low-quality wheat in China After the rapid implementation of the policy of "high quality and good price", the average quality of domestic wheat has been improved year by year The area of national special wheat for high quality has increased from 1.8 million hectares in 1998 to 6 million hectares in 2001, accounting for 24.1% of the total wheat planting area The average quality of domestic wheat has raised a step, which will intangible enhance the internal value of domestic wheat, so that the price of domestic wheat will increase in the future Imported wheat has little influence on the domestic market Similar to the domestic corn market, imported wheat has little impact on the domestic market According to the customs data, in April 2002, China imported 150000 tons of wheat, which is much higher than that of last month's 10000 tons From January to April, the cumulative import of wheat was 360000 tons, an increase of 104.8% over the same period last year Both the national grain and oil information center and the Foreign Agricultural Service Bureau of the U.S Department of agriculture predict that China's wheat imports will be 1.5 million tons in 2002 Although this import volume has increased significantly compared with last year's 690000 tons, it has not increased much compared with the average import volume of 1.1 million tons in the previous six years, and is even smaller compared with the import volume of 11.59 million tons in 1995 For the domestic wheat consumption demand of more than 113 million tons, the impact of the import volume of about 1.5 million tons on China is very limited Moreover, most of the imported wheat directly enters the processing enterprises, which has little impact on the circulation field, so the impact on the domestic wheat price is very small On the whole, all the factors that affect the domestic wheat price cannot cause resistance to the rise of wheat price Therefore, whether in the near future or in the long term, the domestic wheat price will rise steadily at a certain speed.