Domestic soybean processing enterprises are facing many crises

Introduction: Chicago soybean futures prices have fallen sharply since the beginning of May The speed and extent of their decline far exceed market expectations During this period, due to the limitation of domestic soybean import purchase pricing mode, the import contract price of some purchased discount and determined Chicago period price in the early stage is extremely high Domestic soybean enterprises are facing the embarrassing situation of high raw material cost and rapid decline of downstream product price In order to get rid of the predicament, the atmosphere of canceling the import soybean contract and washing dishes spread in the domestic market, and further caused the fluctuation of Chicago soybean market price In view of the above situation, what measures will China's soybean processing industry take to deal with the difficulties, how the future development of the soybean processing industry, and what new changes will appear in the domestic soybean market have attracted great attention of the industry Here, I will only present my views on this issue from a personal point of view The sharp drop of meal price in southern Jiangsu caused the market to fluctuate violently In the afternoon of May 27, a large processing plant in southern Jiangsu Province reduced the price of 42-43% protein soybean meal by 250 yuan to 2650 yuan / ton, which is another significant reduction of the price of soybean meal after the processing plant lowered the price of soybean meal from 3000 yuan / ton to 2900 yuan / ton on May 21 This move of the processing plant immediately triggered sharp market fluctuations Although the basic factors of soybean and soybean meal market at this stage determine that the soybean meal price is still running in the decline channel, but the speed of adjustment is still faster than the market expectation Considering that the soybean processing industry has been in the overall loss situation since May, the further decline of meal price has triggered a fierce discussion on the future development of the soybean processing industry A few days later, the impact of soybean meal price plummeting in southern Jiangsu quickly spread to the rest of the country First of all, the sharp drop of soybean meal price in southern Jiangsu will immediately lead to the decrease of soybean meal price in the surrounding areas of Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and will gradually promote the adjustment process of soybean meal price which has been in a downward trend in the country in a short time, and some enterprises will probably withdraw from the soybean processing industry Secondly, the sharp drop of soybean meal price may make the soybean processing industry, which has already been struggling, face a reshuffle Third, the sharp drop in soybean meal prices will enable breeding and feed enterprises to rapidly increase soybean meal stocks at lower prices It is reported that the soybean processing plant in southern Jiangsu Province, which took the lead in price reduction, already had a turnover of nearly 10000 tons that afternoon Fourth, the sharp drop in soybean meal prices will further expand the number of imported soybean washing ships or cancelling contracts of soybean processing manufacturers, so as to promote the Chicago soybean futures price to continue to fall, resulting in a vicious circle of domestic and foreign market linkage and mutually negative factors An analysis of the deep reasons for the plummeting of meal prices in southern Jiangsu Reasonably speaking, after the domestic soybean meal market price continued to fall for nearly a month, continuing to significantly reduce soybean meal processing will undoubtedly make itself or even the whole soybean processing industry bear a larger loss, but a careful analysis of the recent operation of the processing plant in the futures and spot market and the current trend of the development of the soybean processing industry can undoubtedly find a reasonable explanation According to the information center of state grain and oil, based on the bearish psychology of soybean meal price in the later period, Sunan processing plant began to sell a large number of empty orders on soybean meal futures in Dalian since late May With the decline of soybean meal futures price, the processing plant has made a huge profit in the futures market, which has also created a basis for the processing to significantly reduce the spot price of soybean meal Foundation From a higher level, taking the lead in significantly reducing the price of soybean meal will make the processing plant in a more favorable position in the current soybean processing industry China's soybean processing capacity has obviously exceeded the actual demand capacity after the rapid expansion in 2002-2003, and the competition among processing enterprises will be very fierce The processing factory chooses to reduce the price by a large margin, which can show its strong capital strength and mature operation mechanism to a certain extent In addition, taking the lead in substantially reducing the price of soybean meal can also correspondingly obtain more market share While reducing the stock of soybean meal in their own enterprises, it can force some of the soybean processing enterprises that are short of funds to suffer more large-scale losses, thus forced to sell market share or even the enterprise itself At present, the foundation of the lowest price limit of soybean meal market is weak After the processing plants in southern Jiangsu have greatly reduced the price of soybean meal, some domestic soybean processing plants set 2900 yuan / ton as the lowest price limit in order to try to stabilize the market price of soybean meal, which caused the fierce demonstration of the price trend of soybean meal in the industry to become a focus of the oil market After nearly 50 days of huge losses of domestic soybean processing enterprises, if the soybean meal market price continues to fall sharply, it will undoubtedly make even worse for the operation of enterprises Some enterprises may withdraw from the industry completely because they cannot bear the pressure from the capital In order to avoid this situation, it can be regarded as a way for the processing enterprises to form a price alliance However, in the current fully competitive market economy, a large number of soybean processing plants can not make a unified decision to increase the price of soybean meal, and even if the processing plants take similar measures, there are also considerable difficulties in the specific implementation The author believes that whether the processing plant adopts the minimum price to stabilize the price of soybean meal, or adopts the price alliance to increase the price of soybean meal, its foundation will be very weak Often similar measures in the implementation process will be because of the withdrawal of one or more enterprises become real From another point of view, the purpose of forming the price alliance is to transfer the huge losses of soybean processing enterprises to the breeding and feed enterprises, which is not conducive to the healthy development of the whole soybean industry Therefore, only when the output of soybean meal is lower than the demand for a period of time, the price of soybean meal may rise again Domestic soybean processing enterprises are faced with many crises In April this year, the domestic soybean meal price and soybean oil price showed a sharp decline trend, while the price of imported soybean in Hong Kong kept at a high level in the same period, and to a certain extent, it was higher than the cost of arriving in Hong Kong in March as a whole, so the domestic soybean primary pressing and processing industry presented a significant loss situation In addition, based on the bearish psychology of soybean meal prices in the future, the enthusiasm of soybean meal procurement is very low, and the reduction of demand from the breeding feed industry makes it more difficult for processing plants to turn around losses After May, the further decline of soybeans in the international market makes the contradiction between the high arrival cost of domestic soybeans manufacturers and the current downturn of oil meal more prominent As the sales volume of soybean meal and soybean oil continues to decrease with the decrease of market price, soybean processing enterprises are facing the increasing stock of soybean and soybean meal, while the pressure from liquidity is increasing rapidly, and the government is implementing tightening policies on bank loans Therefore, with the passage of time, the fracture of the capital chain of domestic soybean enterprises is gradually becoming reality from the theoretical possibility For the whole industry of domestic soybean planting, processing and consumption, the soybean processing industry is in the middle of the whole industrial chain Facing the continuous increase of soybean cost and the sharp decline of sales volume, the soybean processing industry can only rely on its own efforts to eliminate the impact of market changes In this process, for the private enterprises which occupy an important proportion in the soybean processing industry in China, the lack of reserve funds and other congenital deficiencies make these enterprises appear inadequate in the ability to prevent risks, and how their future development situation has become the focus of the current market Analysis on the development trend of soybean processing industry in the future According to the statistics of the national grain and oil information center, China's design capacity of soybeans for the first time has reached 150000 tons by the end of 2002, and the annual processing capacity is close to 45 million tons In 2003, the processing capacity continued to expand At the end of the year, the design capacity of soybeans for the first time has reached 170000-190000 tons, and the annual total processing capacity has reached 510-57 million tons, which is close to 60 million tons at present Since 2004, the number of new soybean processing plants, reconstruction and expansion projects in China has continued to increase There are nearly 90 processing plants with a daily design capacity of more than 1000 tons, and the daily capacity of a single plant is also expanding At present, it has become an indisputable fact that the design capacity of primary soybeans in China far exceeds the actual demand capacity No matter what way processing enterprises adopt in recent years to reduce the impact of excess primary soybeans on the price of oil meal, the future soybean processing industry will face a severe survival test has been placed in front of every soybean processing enterprise Under the situation that China's soybean import policy has been liberalized and most enterprises have the right to import and export trade, the domestic soybean enterprises have been very transparent in the channel of obtaining raw materials In the future, the competition of enterprises will be more concentrated on capital, marketing, personnel management and cost control At the stage of high oil meal price, the contradiction of excess capacity of domestic primary extraction will be covered up, because at that time, the processing enterprises will get rich profits of primary extraction In the low price stage of oil meal, many contradictions faced by enterprises will appear, just as the current difficulties faced by processing enterprises However, the author believes that it is in the difficult stage of the overall operation of the soybean processing industry that the processing enterprises with follow-up strength have the opportunity to expand market share Therefore, under the circumstances that some domestic enterprises actively demand to reduce the quantity of soybean imports, other enterprises continue to import soybeans At present, China's soybean import is facing a complex situation In the face of the current difficult situation faced by the whole soybean processing industry, domestic processing enterprises are trying to rely on their own efforts to get rid of the difficulties Last week, some domestic soybean processing enterprises held a seminar in Beijing to try to reduce the number of soybean imports in the future is a useful attempt, but the author believes that only relying on the unilateral will of soybean processing enterprises can not reverse the current situation Difficulties faced by domestic soybean processing industry The fundamental reason for making this judgment is that at present, there are various investment sources in China's soybean processing industry, and many soybean processing plants cannot make a decision to reduce soybean import globally Even if the processing plants take similar measures, the traders will not stop importing, and the domestic soybean import quantity will be supported by this, which leads to the combination of low price soybean and high price soybean The existing situation This means that some small and medium-sized processing plants can obtain low-cost imported soybeans from traders in a certain period of time in the future, and correspondingly reduce the cost of soybean meal production In this way, the most likely result is that there will be significant differences in the cost of soybean meal in the domestic market, and as a consumer group, the breeding feed enterprises will favor the low price soybean meal raw materials That is to say, as long as there is a channel through which traders can import soybeans, no matter what measures are taken by processing plants, it is impossible to prevent the price of oil meal from falling by reducing the supply of raw materials Only when the demand for soybean meal and the demand for edible oil of domestic feed enterprises substantially increases, can the processing profit be improved China imported more than 900 soybeans in the first half of the year