Domestic soybean oil prices in the later period do not exclude the possibility of a sharp drop

Introduction: after the double festival, the domestic soybean oil price has declined all the way However, in the first ten days of November, the number of imported soybeans arriving in Hong Kong is not large Due to the serious psychology of farmers in Northeast China, the domestic soybean market is not large, and the start-up of domestic oil plants is not too high, and the soybean oil supply is partially tight In addition, the sharp decline of soybean meal makes the squeezing profit shrink, and also makes oil factories have the desire to raise the price of soybean oil Therefore, the domestic market of soybean oil has stabilized and increased In particular, the U.S market rose last week after the U.S Department of Agriculture announced the discovery of soybean rust In the case of continuous increase in soybean oil prices, some domestic oil companies in Northeast, Shandong, Henan and other places raised their soybean oil prices slightly, hoping to stimulate market demand, but the market response was relatively flat, and trading stagnated It can be seen that the soybean oil market is still facing a heavy negative, and the COF is expected to fall further in the future The market does not exclude a sharp decline The reasons are as follows: 1 The new oil products have entered the substantial stage; 1 A large number of northeast soybeans are about to enter the customs As early as the end of September, domestic oil plants began to set up a wide range of sites in the northeast main production area to prepare for acquisition Only because the price of oil meal has been falling since then, the oil plants are relatively short of the market, and the local soybean farmers are more reluctant to sell, so the oil plants have not made the acquisition However, with the increasingly tight supply of domestic soybeans, the awareness of oil factory procurement has been strengthened again, and many of them have entered the market for procurement Recently, in the Northeast market, although people's differences are relatively large, the order is relatively chaotic, and the price raising is cautious, most of them have made significant progress Although the railway transportation is relatively tight, some large oil plants are still actively organizing and coordinating, and it is expected that the Northeast soybean import volume will still be considerable in the end of this month According to the prediction of the national grain and oil information center, the soybean output of China increased by 17% year on year in 2004, reaching 18.05 million tons, the highest record in history Among them, the soybean output in the main production area of Northeast China reached about 10 million tons, and a large number of Northeast soybean entered the customs, which will promote the start-up rate of all oil plants in the customs, and the soybean oil price will decrease with the increase of output 2 A large number of imported soybeans arrived in the first ten days of November, and the arrival volume of imported soybeans in domestic ports rebounded on a month on month basis In the whole first ten days, there were 12 ships of soybeans, and the arrival volume is expected to be 700000 tons November is a peak month for the arrival of imported soybeans in China The arrival of soybeans in the United States alone is likely to reach 2 million tons In addition, as there are about 400000 tons of South American soybeans to arrive in November, it is expected that the arrival of imported soybeans in the whole November will reach 2.3-2.4 million tons With the arrival of a large number of imported soybeans at the end of this month, the oil plants in South America and the coastal areas will start up one after another in order not to lose market share, even if the price of oil meal falls and the market is bad, and the monopoly market is waiting for profits, and the price of soybean oil may fall in response to the increase of production 3 The import of soybean oil will continue to affect the domestic market Before October 1, some domestic businesses may have limited the import of soybean oil in the future due to the new standard of gall bladder They have imported a large amount of soybean oil from South American countries, which once inflated the domestic soybean oil inventory However, after the implementation of the new standard, the implementation of the system is not strict, and crude soybean oil imports are still relatively large Up to now, Tianjin Port has imported over 130000 tons of crude soybean oil, Zhangjiagang about 70000-80000 tons, Guangzhou over 60000 tons, Qinzhou over 10000 tons Recently, China's General Administration of quality supervision, inspection and Quarantine (AQSIQ) has agreed that Brazilian exporters will not be bound by the new regulations on soybean oil import Recently, the import of crude soybean oil has increased According to the tracking, the duty paid price of the newly arrived soybean oil is only about 5500 yuan / ton There is a price difference of more than 300 yuan / ton with the domestic market price The arrival of a large number of imported soybean oil will naturally play a role in the formation of domestic soybean oil price Pressure 4 A large number of imported canola arrived Recently, about 320000 tons of canola have been imported from Canada, including 50000 tons to Shanghai port, 260000 tons to Jiangsu and Zhejiang On November 7, Zhangjiagang took the lead in the import of canola, named "banggatumi", with a quantity of 55000 tons, which was unloaded at the East China Sea wharf A large number of imported rapeseed has also increased the pressure on the soybean oil market 2 The international market continues to be negative 1 American soybean farmers are facing sales pressure Since the harvest of new soybean, American soybean farmers have been hoarding and selling because of the unsatisfactory purchase price However, due to the limited storage capacity, with the increase of new soybean harvest, the storage is obviously tight In addition, the warehouse also needs to make some space for storing corn harvested at the same time, so soybean farmers are facing sales pressure Recently, American soybean farmers have taken advantage of the sharp rise of American futures soybean prices to speed up the pace of sales of new beans According to the latest monthly report issued by the U.S Department of agriculture, the U.S soybean output this year reached an all-time high of 3 billion 150 million bushels, 43 million bushels higher than the predicted value of 3 billion 107 million bushels in October This report not only increased the output, but also reduced the export, which made the soybean end of the period inventory reach a very large level, which will inevitably make American soybean farmers panic Moreover, it is estimated that the soybean output of South America and South America in 2004 / 05 will also break through the historical level, which should eventually exceed 103 million tons, 16 million tons higher than that in 2003 / 04 It can be seen that if U.S soybean farmers continue to be reluctant to sell, they may face greater negative, the new report will urge soybean farmers to continue to speed up soybean sales, the basis will continue to weaken, and CBOT market will also fall 2 The pace of China's procurement will slow down China has always been the largest buyer of us soybeans The change of Chinese demand often determines the rise and fall of us spot and even CBO? Soybean futures Recently, due to the continuous decline of soybean meal and soybean oil prices, the squeezing profit has been greatly reduced, and the power of soybean import of oil plants has been weakened; on the other hand, due to the default in soybean trade in the early stage, foreign exporters have made strict trade terms for Chinese soybean importers, coupled with the domestic macro-control and the increase of bank loan interest rate, the difficulty of domestic oil plants in purchasing imported soybeans has further increased Step up, the later purchase speed will slow down, and soybean prices in the US spot futures market are likely to fall further due to China's delisting 3 The positive effect of Asian rust is limited Recently, after the news of Asian rust in the United States came out, it is expected that the cost of agricultural planting in the United States will increase, and the sensitive soybean market in the U.S market immediately rose sharply However, as the discovery time of the pathogen is the end of soybean harvest, it will not affect the soybean yield this year, and the current low temperature and dry climate are not conducive to the spread of soybean rust, so the extent of the impact of the pathogen can not be determined in the future Therefore, the news has limited support for the short and medium term market of the US, which may be submerged by other negative factors in the near future III weak market demand 1 The ultimate market is basically saturated Originally, during the double festival, due to the active promotion of various oil factories and businesses, shopping malls all over the country were in a rush buying situation, and people's purchase volume was enough for the use in the next one to two months; later, a large-scale promotion was carried out again in the sharp reduction of soybean oil price in late October, and after several rounds of rush buying, the market demand of residents everywhere has basically saturated According to common sense, the drop in the factory price of soybean oil will not affect the small packaging retail market, but at present, under the pressure of sales, the oil companies and businesses have again launched "special price" and "jump price" to reduce the price of small packaging soybean oil This also reflects the seriousness of the domestic soybean oil sales situation The price reduction in the retail market may also cause chain reactions in the wholesale market 2 The overall market is in the off-season of demand, and the stock up is far from starting At present, the domestic soybean oil market is in the off-season of consumption after the double festival, and the spring stock period is far from coming, and the domestic soybean oil price is lack of demand support At present, peanut oil, cotton oil, vegetable oil and other oils are on the market, and soybean oil sales are facing multiple pressures In particular, the current price of cotton oil is only 5200-5300 yuan / ton, which has the advantage of 700-800 yuan / ton compared with soybean oil price In the future, cotton oil will replace palm oil and mix it into soybean oil in a large amount, and seize the soybean oil market at the right time The price of soybean oil will also fall In a word, in the future, the domestic soybean crushing raw materials supply is sufficient, and the soybean oil market is facing the pressure of the arrival of imported soybean oil; in the case of bad international market and sluggish domestic demand, the soybean oil price will fall further in the later period, and due to the greater pressure, the decline may be larger