Domestic soybean market should pay close attention to the change of Fundamentals

Introduction: in recent years, the domestic soybean market is in the same state as Dalian futures market Recently, the domestic soybean market is in the same state as Dalian futures market However, the trend of Dalian futures market is suspected of hyping the concept of GM, while the domestic spot market must really pay attention to the changes in fundamentals For this reason, the author has the following points to remind everyone VB3 first, the international market is strong and weak According to the latest report of the U.S Department of agriculture, in 2002 / 03, the soybean production in South America was still a harvest year The total soybean production in Brazil and Argentina reached 84.5 million tons, an increase of 11 million tons The total soybean production in the world was 191 million tons, and the annual transfer inventory was 30.65 million tons, which was still the high level of global soybean inventory in recent years Although recently, due to the decline of soybean stocks in the United States, the external market is in a strong position, but looking at the changes in the market over a period of time, it is not difficult for insiders to find that, as far as the current situation is concerned, the probability of the external market breaking through 600 points is still within 10%, and the soon to be listed South American soybean can not be ignored as a potential market pressure VB3 second, the domestic soybean import contract situation and the actual domestic demand According to the U.S Department of agriculture's Export Report (it can be concluded that this is a relatively valuable figure after several years of observation), from January 2, 2003 to February 13, 2003, China has shipped 1.92 million tons of soybeans in the United States, in addition to the 1.82 million tons of soybeans that have been purchased for shipment, plus the most recently purchased ships, in 2-4 There will be 4 million tons of American soybeans arriving in China in a period of time in May In addition, there is also a part of South American soybeans shipped in March With the actual available quantity of 1.5 million tons in China, the supply of soybeans in the domestic market is not tight From the middle of April, there will be South American soybeans entering China's ports one after another It is a common fact that the number of contracts signed in China is relatively concentrated Not only in quantity, but also in price At least 40-60 US cents / bushel, about 15-22 US dollars / ton, or 150-220 yuan / ton lower comprehensive cost, is lower than that of American soybean We can also boldly imagine that even if the price of South American soybeans is 540, the import cost is only 2200 yuan / ton, and there is a price difference of 350 yuan / ton in the current port quotation It's not easy to raise the price of related domestic products VB3 fourth, in terms of the domestic planting situation this year, China's oil planting area in autumn shows an increasing trend, with the increase of soybeans, cotton and rapeseed harvest in summer After June, nearly 13 million tons of rapeseed will be listed in China, which is higher than the annual output of 1.5 million tons I don't believe that the tight supply of oil market will not be solved VB3 sixth, China's oil quota has been issued, and palm oil quota is 2.6 million tons, which is large enough At present, the port price of palm oil is about 5000-5100 yuan / ton, which is about 500-700 yuan / ton lower than the price of secondary soybean oil and cottonseed oil After the temperature rises, the consumption will inevitably increase, which is believed to play a significant role in increasing the total oil supply In fact, VB3 is still a problem of quota At present, China's oil reserve rotation has begun to take action, and we can know a little about the import situation The emergence of this situation is bound to be based on the selling of existing reserves, which is naturally not good for the market In the eighth place, the author thinks that the concept of futures market over doing is a little irrational in the current situation of our country I don't agree with some people's opinions, but I don't know that after the imported soybean fell to 2200 yuan / ton in the spot market, the domestic 2600 soybean can still find a market there, so it's not realistic to use it as food In a word, the author thinks that, looking at the international and domestic oil production situation, the characteristics of the top of the oil market are quite obvious, especially for some small and medium-sized oil processing enterprises and traders, we should pay special attention to the rhythm and speed of import and export, and we must not have the illusion of greedy for profits Even in the futures speculation friends, should also see good to close, so as not to deal with the hands of soybeans and headache VB3 -- China grain, oil and food information network