Domestic soybean market price will face greater pressure

Introduction: just after the long Spring Festival holiday, the domestic soybean futures market price showed a strong rebound trend, and in just a few trading days, the price of the period increased nearly 100 As we all know, the futures market is closely related to the spot market Along with the upward trend of the futures price, the domestic soybean spot market price has also stabilized However, due to the global soybean production is expected to record, the soybean market will face major negative factors in the future The main reasons are as follows: GMA 1 It is predicted that the total soybean production of Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay this year is expected to exceed the total soybean production of the United States in 2002 / 2003 for the first time, reaching 74.29 million tons GMA 2 Although the U.S Department of Agriculture recently predicted that the soybean planting area will reach 71.5 million acres in 2003 / 2004, which is much lower than the 73.8 million acres planted last year, the U.S Department of agriculture predicted that the total soybean production in 2003 / 2004 will reach 2.785 billion bushels, which is higher than the 2.73 billion bushels planted last year GMA 3 China's soybean revitalization plan is likely to expand the output of yellow soybean year by year At present, soybean is the only product in short supply in China's bulk agricultural products There is a gap of about 10 million tons per year In addition to the growing consumption demand, it is reasonable to believe that the output of yellow soybean in China will continue to increase Although there are still obstacles of negative factors in the domestic soybean market, looking at the basic environment of the domestic soybean market, the soybean market price is still expected to hover at a high level The specific situation is as follows: GMA first of all, the increase of global soybean production this year is an indisputable fact, but we have ignored one The important factor is that demand is growing more than supply, which directly offsets the negative factors of global production growth and alleviates the market's concerns to some extent The U.S Department of agriculture did not adjust soybean production much in its February report It estimated that this year's global soybean production was 192.88 million tons, an increase of 8.58 million tons over last year's global production However, the adjustment of demand is very large The report estimated demand for this year is 193.86 million tons, an increase of 9.97 million tons compared with 183.9 million tons last year It can be seen that the growth rate of demand is faster than that of supply Therefore, only relying on the growth of production in South America is not enough to change the situation of global soybean supply shortage The reality may be that the market buyers will gradually turn to South America due to the tight supply of soybeans in the United States and the export trade of soybeans in the United States entering the seasonal off-season Market participants expect that during January June 2003, South American soybeans will benefit from tight supply of oilseed and oilseed products, because most oil products are in low inventory At the same time, palm oil production is significantly lower than in previous years The continuation of this phenomenon will lead to a substantial decline in U.S soybean stocks in August this year At that time, soybean stocks in South America may also drop to a lower level than last year, based on current soybean production and demand forecasts GMA second, the financial turmoil in South America is also a time bomb buried in the soybean market It should be remembered that the output of South America also increased significantly last year, but the price of international soybean market accelerated during that period The reason is that the financial turmoil in the South American mainland has a huge impact on the export of South American soybeans, which leads to the behavior of farmers hoarding soybeans Compared with this time last year, the financial situation in South America has not changed much So while South America's output continues to grow this year, it's unclear how much it can help improve the tight soybean supply in the international market GMA again, in the analysis of China's soybean market, the most impressive is the strong demand in the domestic market According to the report of the U.S Department of agriculture in February, China's market demand for soybeans shows an accelerated growth momentum In 2000 / 2001, China's soybean crushing demand was 18.90 million tons, and the total demand was 26.70 million tons In 2001 / 02, the two figures increased by 7.46% and 5.3% respectively By 2002 / 03, the two figures were 22.95 million tons and 31.05 million tons, respectively, an increase of 13% and 10.4% over the previous year Therefore, the domestic soybean market price in the later period is likely to get rid of the shackles of the international market and walk out of the independent rising market GMA although the domestic soybean market is still affected by a series of positive and negative factors, but from the characteristics of these factors to analyze, in the later stage, these potential positive factors will play a major role in soybeans, of course, the impact of these factors on soybeans is gradually reflected, reflected in the trend of soybeans, rising is also a long and slow process Gma