Domestic rice market outlook in June

Introduction: at present, the overall domestic rice market is still maintaining a relatively stable development trend Due to regional differences, the prices of individual regions fluctuate According to the statistics of the national grain and oil information center, the prices of early indica rice market in South China begin to show signs of stabilization after maintaining the declining trend for nearly half a month At present, the annual wholesale price of common early indica rice in 2000-01 in the main selling area of South China is about 1360-1400 yuan / ton, the annual wholesale price of common early indica rice in 98-99 is 1320-1340 yuan / ton, and the annual wholesale price of early indica rice in 98-99 is 980-1000 yuan / ton In Fuzhou, Xiamen, Guangzhou, Dongguan and other markets, the annual delivery price of ordinary late indica rice station is about 1500-154 yuan / ton, and that of ordinary hybrid rice is 1600-1640 yuan / ton However, the wholesale price of some high-quality rice brands, such as "923" and "MABA oil stick", remains stable at a high level of about 2200 yuan / ton With the passage of time, how to move the domestic rice market in June has become the focus of the industry Because rice is different from the consumption of other food varieties, it is essential to face the impact of the market The specific analysis is as follows: first of all, the output decreases, the consumption increases, and the basic position of price increases     In 2000, due to the adjustment of planting structure and the influence of drought, the sown area of rice in China decreased by 1.7% compared with that in 1999, the output of rice decreased significantly compared with that in the previous year, and the stock began to decline at the end of the year According to the statistical data of relevant departments, the stock of rice in China at the end of 2000 was 94.24 million tons, and the sown area of rice continued to decrease in 2001 According to the forecast data of the U.S Department of agriculture, it is expected that China's rice output in 2001 / 02 will be 180 million tons, a decrease of 4.2% compared with the previous year While the output tends to decline, the consumption of domestic rice is steadily increasing According to the domestic rice market consumption survey, the consumption of feed and industry in China has increased in recent years, especially in 2001, due to the rapid increase of corn price, the price difference between rice and corn has expanded, and the consumption of rice feed and industry has increased a lot The annual feed consumption has recovered to 1997 The annual highest level is 11.86 million tons, and the industrial consumption is about 10 million tons In 2000, China's total rice consumption is 191.8 million tons, and the output is 190 million tons It is estimated that the total domestic rice consumption in 2001 is expected to exceed 193 million tons Under the situation that the domestic rice output is decreasing year by year and the consumption quantity tends to increase, the basic position of the domestic rice market price rising is strengthened Secondly, the domestic inventory decreased steadily, and the driving force of market price was enhanced     In recent years, due to the decrease of rice output and the increase of consumption, the annual output cannot meet the annual demand Therefore, the original stock must be used to meet the growth of market demand According to the statistical data, China's rice stock in 2000 was 94.24 million tons, and in 2001, China's rice planting area continued to decrease by 1.9%, According to the forecast data of the U.S Department of agriculture, in 2001 / 02, the end of period stock of rice in China was 84.325 million tons, and the stock quantity decreased again, which provided conditions for the rising of rice price and enhanced the driving force of the market Thirdly, the domestic rice export situation is optimistic, and the market stimulus role is strengthened In 2000, the net export of rice increased rapidly According to customs statistics, in 2000, China exported 2.95 million tons of rice, imported 240000 tons of rice, and exported 2.71 million tons of rice, which drove the price up In 2001, China continued to maintain a good export momentum, and rice export trade was active According to statistical data, China exported 1.87 million tons of rice from January to December, while China imported 270000 tons of rice in the same period For other food varieties, the expected pressure of WTO entry is greater than the expected driving force However, for China's rice market, although China's accession to WTO is faced with an import quota of 2.5 million tons, even if all of them are poured in, it is insignificant compared with China's huge consumer market, and China's accession to WTO has brought huge trade opportunities to China's rice market According to the prediction of the U.S Department of agriculture, 2001 / in 2002, the world rice trade volume was 23.074 million tons, less than one ninth of China's rice output After China's accession to the WTO, China's rice market will be more in line with the international market, which will create opportunities for China's rice market exports It is expected that China's rice export volume will increase again in 2002, and the stimulating effect on prices will be strengthened again     In summary, the stable operation of China's rice market is determined by its own consumption status, the basic status of the domestic rice market, and the international rice market Influenced by a series of negative factors, such as inventory rotation, stale grain auction, stock transfer and sales, the price of big rice market stops However, due to the rice harvest season of Southeast Asian countries in the international market However, according to the fundamental analysis of the domestic rice market, the development trend of the domestic rice market in the later period is still optimistic with the gradual dilution of the negative factors in the domestic and international markets (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: