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"Pork prices have entered the first-level warning range of excessive rise" "The state will release the sixth batch of central pork reserves this year".
.
.
From the "Eleventh" holiday to the present, the national pork price has unwittingly risen to a high level
.
The "pig cycle" refers to a cycle
in which the supply of pork leads to higher prices, oversupply leads to a decline in meat prices, and then the supply of pork in the market decreases, resulting in a further increase in meat prices.
Each "pig cycle" lasts about 4 years, and now that meat prices are rising again, does it mean that the last "pig cycle" has ended? What is the "pig cycle" to? When will meat prices peak? The Global Times reporter interviewed industry insiders
for this.
Raise a 130 kg pig and make a profit of at least 1,000 yuan
"Heading into October, pork prices went all the way up
.
You see that this pork belly is now more than 30 yuan and 1 pound, and the lowest at the end of March was only about 15 yuan, which has risen by 1 times
in half a year.
In a Wumart supermarket in Beijing's Chaoyang District, Ms.
Wang, a retired citizen, told the Global Times that pork prices began to rise in April, and after entering the third quarter, especially in October, they rose even faster
.
Wang Zuli, chief expert of pig industry monitoring and early warning of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China, told the Global Times reporter on the 20th that after the end of the last "pig cycle" at the end of March this year, a new round of "pig cycle" has quietly started, "pork prices began to show signs of rising in April, ushered in a round of rapid rise in July and August, and rose more sharply in October"
.
According to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, in the week of October 10-14, the average weekly retail price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities across the country increased by more than 40% compared with the same period last year, reaching the level 1 warning range of excessive increase
.
Wang Zuli told the Global Times that according to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the second week of October, the price of pork has risen to 38.
7 yuan per kilogram, far exceeding the price level
of about 25 yuan in normal years.
In Wang Zuli's view, the current pork price has reached a "peak" level
.
Li Longhui, executive vice president of Wuhan Green Giant Farmers of Dabeinong Group, said in an interview with the Global Times reporter that when the price of the last "pig cycle" was low, raising a pig meant a loss of 500 yuan, and the entire industry was bleak
.
Now, that situation has been completely reversed
.
Now a pig of about 130 kg makes at least 1,000 yuan or more
.
"The cost of raising pigs is rising, companies need to make profits, and we originally judged that pork prices would also rise, but the current rise is still unexpected
.
"
"Already to the top"?
On the 20th, the official account of the National Development and Reform Commission released news that in response to the recent situation of continuous high pig prices, the price department of the National Development and Reform Commission has strengthened communication and coordination with some large-scale pig breeding enterprises, requiring enterprises not to deliberately raise prices, let alone collude to increase prices
.
At the industry seminar previously organized by the National Development and Reform Commission, experts believe that the recent significant increase in pig prices is an important reason why some farmers have irrationally over-pressed fences and secondary fattening to reduce market supply
.
Wang Zuli analyzed to the Global Times reporter that market supply and demand are key factors
affecting pork prices.
Because of the rising price of pork, some farmers are reluctant to sell, and the phenomenon of slowing down the pace of pig slaughter is widespread, and the supply of pigs in the market is "further tight", resulting in large price fluctuations
.
However, for the pig breeding industry, after surviving the most difficult moment of the last "pig cycle" at the end of March, with the start of a new round of "pig cycle", pork prices have risen steadily, and the entire industry has ushered in "good days"
.
Wang Zuli told the Global Times reporter that the last "pig cycle" started in July and August 2020, and by the end of March 2022, about 20 months have ended
.
The new "pig cycle" started in April and has been running for half a year now
.
Li Longhui told the Global Times reporter that it was when pork prices soared by leaps and bounds in June that the industry's breakeven point was quickly surpassed
.
From then on, the entire industry began to enter a profitable period
.
Li Longhui said that by the end of September, the hole in the loss of the entire industry at the beginning of the year has been filled, but the entire industry is not much profitable, "the real profit depends on the last three months of this year"
.
Judging from the third quarter performance data disclosed by a number of pig breeding enterprises recently, the pig breeding industry also released profit signals
in the third quarter after experiencing sluggish performance in the first half of the year.
From 2006 to 2021, the domestic industry experienced a total of 4 "pig cycles"
.
For the operation of this round of "pig cycle", Wang Zuli believes that the current pork price "has risen to the top"
.
In his opinion, this round of "pig cycle" will not end next year, and the specific time needs to be further observed
.
Li Longhui believes that with the further concentration of the domestic pig breeding industry, the industry behavior will become more rational, and the corresponding "pig cycle" will show a trend of
shortening time and narrowing price fluctuations.
Regulatory policies are working
How will pork prices change in the future? Wang Zuli judged that now that meat prices have run to the highest level of the current cycle, they may fluctuate up and down before the Spring Festival this year, and there is no room for
another significant increase.
He believes that before the Spring Festival, the market will show a "double increase" in
demand and supply.
Wang Zuli believes that the market may be smashed into a big hole in the future by the sudden surge in pig supply, but the meat price lacks the possibility
of a sharp decline.
Li Longhui also judged that pork prices may return from their current highs in the future, but only a slight correction, not a sharp decline, because the price of this "pig cycle" has only begun to rise for
a few months.
High pig prices affect the daily lives of ordinary people, in order to stabilize prices and ensure supply, the National Development and Reform Commission announced on October 19 that it will release the sixth batch of central pork reserves
this year.
Li Longhui told reporters, "The recent fluctuation in pork prices has changed the rise in meat prices, in fact, the national regulation and control policy is working"
.
Wang Zuli also said that this move released the signal of the national competent authorities to ensure supply and stable prices, which will form a considerable suppression
on the rise in pig prices.
"If you don't put in reserve meat during this time, the price of pork will rise even higher,"
he said.
;
; "Pork prices have entered the first-level warning range of excessive rise" "The state will release the sixth batch of central pork reserves this year".
.
.
From the "Eleventh" holiday to the present, the national pork price has unwittingly risen to a high level
.
The "pig cycle" refers to a cycle
in which the supply of pork leads to higher prices, oversupply leads to a decline in meat prices, and then the supply of pork in the market decreases, resulting in a further increase in meat prices.
Each "pig cycle" lasts about 4 years, and now that meat prices are rising again, does it mean that the last "pig cycle" has ended? What is the "pig cycle" to? When will meat prices peak? The Global Times reporter interviewed industry insiders
for this.
Raise a 130 kg pig and make a profit of at least 1000,<> yuan
Raising a 130 kg pig makes at least 1,000 yuan to raise a 130 kg pig with a profit of at least 1,000 yuan "Heading into October, pork prices went all the way up
.
You see that this pork belly is now more than 30 yuan and 1 pound, and the lowest at the end of March was only about 15 yuan, which has risen by 1 times
in half a year.
In a Wumart supermarket in Beijing's Chaoyang District, Ms.
Wang, a retired citizen, told the Global Times that pork prices began to rise in April, and after entering the third quarter, especially in October, they rose even faster
.
Wang Zuli, chief expert of pig industry monitoring and early warning of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China, told the Global Times reporter on the 20th that after the end of the last "pig cycle" at the end of March this year, a new round of "pig cycle" has quietly started, "pork prices began to show signs of rising in April, ushered in a round of rapid rise in July and August, and rose more sharply in October"
.
According to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, in the week of October 10-14, the average weekly retail price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities across the country increased by more than 40% compared with the same period last year, reaching the level 1 warning range of excessive increase
.
Wang Zuli told the Global Times that according to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the second week of October, the price of pork has risen to 38.
7 yuan per kilogram, far exceeding the price level
of about 25 yuan in normal years.
In Wang Zuli's view, the current pork price has reached a "peak" level
.
Li Longhui, executive vice president of Wuhan Green Giant Farmers of Dabeinong Group, said in an interview with the Global Times reporter that when the price of the last "pig cycle" was low, raising a pig meant a loss of 500 yuan, and the entire industry was bleak
.
Now, that situation has been completely reversed
.
Now a pig of about 130 kg makes at least 1,000 yuan or more
.
"The cost of raising pigs is rising, companies need to make profits, and we originally judged that pork prices would also rise, but the current rise is still unexpected
.
"
"Already to the top"?
"Already on top"?" Already up to the top"? On the 20th, the official account of the National Development and Reform Commission released news that in response to the recent situation of continuous high pig prices, the price department of the National Development and Reform Commission has strengthened communication and coordination with some large-scale pig breeding enterprises, requiring enterprises not to deliberately raise prices, let alone collude to increase prices
.
At the industry seminar previously organized by the National Development and Reform Commission, experts believe that the recent significant increase in pig prices is an important reason why some farmers have irrationally over-pressed fences and secondary fattening to reduce market supply
.
Wang Zuli analyzed to the Global Times reporter that market supply and demand are key factors
affecting pork prices.
Because of the rising price of pork, some farmers are reluctant to sell, and the phenomenon of slowing down the pace of pig slaughter is widespread, and the supply of pigs in the market is "further tight", resulting in large price fluctuations
.
However, for the pig breeding industry, after surviving the most difficult moment of the last "pig cycle" at the end of March, with the start of a new round of "pig cycle", pork prices have risen steadily, and the entire industry has ushered in "good days"
.
Wang Zuli told the Global Times reporter that the last "pig cycle" started in July and August 2020, and by the end of March 2022, about 20 months have ended
.
The new "pig cycle" started in April and has been running for half a year now
.
Li Longhui told the Global Times reporter that it was when pork prices soared by leaps and bounds in June that the industry's breakeven point was quickly surpassed
.
From then on, the entire industry began to enter a profitable period
.
Li Longhui said that by the end of September, the hole in the loss of the entire industry at the beginning of the year has been filled, but the entire industry is not much profitable, "the real profit depends on the last three months of this year"
.
Judging from the third quarter performance data disclosed by a number of pig breeding enterprises recently, the pig breeding industry also released profit signals
in the third quarter after experiencing sluggish performance in the first half of the year.
From 2006 to 2021, the domestic industry experienced a total of 4 "pig cycles"
.
For the operation of this round of "pig cycle", Wang Zuli believes that the current pork price "has risen to the top"
.
In his opinion, this round of "pig cycle" will not end next year, and the specific time needs to be further observed
.
Li Longhui believes that with the further concentration of the domestic pig breeding industry, the industry behavior will become more rational, and the corresponding "pig cycle" will show a trend of
shortening time and narrowing price fluctuations.
Regulatory policies are working
Regulatory policies are working How will pork prices change in the future? Wang Zuli judged that now that meat prices have run to the highest level of the current cycle, they may fluctuate up and down before the Spring Festival this year, and there is no room for
another significant increase.
He believes that before the Spring Festival, the market will show a "double increase" in
demand and supply.
Wang Zuli believes that the market may be smashed into a big hole in the future by the sudden surge in pig supply, but the meat price lacks the possibility
of a sharp decline.
Li Longhui also judged that pork prices may return from their current highs in the future, but only a slight correction, not a sharp decline, because the price of this "pig cycle" has only begun to rise for
a few months.
High pig prices affect the daily lives of ordinary people, in order to stabilize prices and ensure supply, the National Development and Reform Commission announced on October 19 that it will release the sixth batch of central pork reserves
this year.
Li Longhui told reporters, "The recent fluctuation in pork prices has changed the rise in meat prices, in fact, the national regulation and control policy is working"
.
Wang Zuli also said that this move released the signal of the national competent authorities to ensure supply and stable prices, which will form a considerable suppression
on the rise in pig prices.
"If you don't put in reserve meat during this time, the price of pork will rise even higher,"
he said.
