Domestic oil plants in deficit

Introduction: since this week, the decline of domestic oil meal price has not changed, the decline of meal price is relatively small, and the decline of oil price is accelerated The main reason for the small drop in meal price is that there is still some demand for stock in the market, while some oil plants have started to shut down and the supply has decreased, which has some support for the price This situation is more obvious in Guangdong The recent soybean meal price in Guangdong has been adjusted up compared with the previous days, with the price between 2400-2450 yuan, and the actual transaction value is about 2400 yuan However, on the whole, the market is not optimistic about the future soybean meal price, so the stock volume is limited, and the soybean meal price still shows a slight downward trend At present, soybean meal prices in Shandong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang are mostly at 2300 yuan, down about 20 yuan from last week The soybean meal price in Dalian is between 2200-2250 yuan, while that in Heilongjiang is around 2150 yuan, which are slightly lower than last week This week's accelerated decline in soybean oil prices is mainly due to the fact that oil companies are mostly bearish about post holiday oil prices They hope to reduce inventory and risk before the festival Among them, the price of oil in Guangdong Province dropped the most, and the price of grade IV soybean oil in this region dropped from 5750-5800 yuan / ton last week to 5600-5650 yuan / ton The price of first-class soybean oil has dropped from 6120-6150 yuan / ton to 5960-6000 yuan / ton, down about 150 yuan per ton In addition, the price of oil in Jiangsu also fell faster Take the price of Donghai as an example Last Thursday, the price of first-class soybean oil was 6120 yuan / ton, which fell to 6000 yuan / ton on Thursday, 120 yuan / ton down Shandong's first-class soybean oil price has also dropped to 5980-6000 yuan As the price of oil meal continues to decline, the income of most crushing plants starts to turn negative If the cost of imported beans is 2800 yuan / ton, the oil plants in Shandong and East China will have zero profit Only because the price of meal is higher in Guangdong, the oil plants will have a little profit However, at present, the cost of imported beans to Hong Kong is mostly higher than 2800 yuan / ton, so the loss is self-evident It is expected that the price of oil meal will remain weak after the festival, and the trend of oil will be weaker than that of meal, mainly because there are a large number of cheap imported crude soybean oil in the oil supply According to the shipment situation in South America that we track, about 400000 tons of imported soybean oil will arrive in January, February and March this year A large amount of imported oil will put pressure on domestic supply Soybean meal prices may be more vulnerable to the impact of the start-up Due to the weak demand for soybean meal, some factories may extend the downtime In addition, the cost line is also a psychological support line for the oil factories At present, there are not many soybean stocks in each oil factory If the meal price is too low and the loss is too large, the oil factories may also choose to shut down to reduce the supply of soybean meal Therefore, it is estimated that After meal price will fall in a relatively small space, but the weak pattern will not change From the outside, if the weather in South America is not a big problem, the CBOT bean price will continue to fall, and the oil meal price will follow its trend, which will also drive the domestic price down.