Domestic corn prices will fluctuate in March

Introduction: At present, the purchasing and marketing activities of domestic corn market have recovered, among which the multiple main bodies in the Northeast production area are gradually purchasing, most of the purchase price is the same as before the festival, and the rise and fall of some local areas are mutually present At present, the price in Siping and Songyuan areas in Jilin Province is 0.41 yuan / Jin, the water content is 28%, that in Yushu and Nongan areas is 0.38-0.39 yuan / Jin, and the water content is 28% In the near future, after the festival, the corn market in Southern Sales Area The arrival volume is slightly tight, and the price of corn in some areas has risen briefly, among which, the arrival price of medium-sized corn in Nanchang, Jiangxi Province is 1280 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton higher than that before the festival, and the arrival price of medium-sized corn in Chengdu, Sichuan Province is 1320 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton higher than that before the festival; at present, the price of corn in domestic ports shows a pattern of "stable in the north and rising in the South", among which the closing price of Dalian port in Northeast Liaoning Province is 1140-1150 The closing price of corn in Southern Shanghai port is 1260 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton higher than that before the festival At present, due to the shortage of corn purchase and stock in the early stage in some areas of China, the amount of corn arriving at the station recently is relatively small, resulting in short-term tight supply of corn market However, due to the fact that the farmers' corn has not been restored or completely restored for sale in a few major production areas, the purchase price rebounds in some areas However, this is a short-term phenomenon It is not that the domestic corn market has been reversed at present Due to the relatively small amount of domestic corn listed before the festival, the negative factors have not been digested in time, and the amount of corn listed in the later period is still large, while the purchase is still large In the short term, the demand is difficult to be significantly enlarged, so the author thinks that the domestic corn price will continue the weak market trend in March The specific analysis is as follows: Policy: in 2004, under the guidance of the spirit of the No.1 document of the Central Committee, the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain is unprecedented high, and the corn production in China has recovered One year's plan is spring The spring of 2005 is still the spring of Chinese farmers The state continues to pay attention to the "three rural" issues A series of policies on supporting agricultural production, increasing farmers' income and reducing farmers' burden will make 900 million farmers truly realize the substantial care of the party Central Committee and the State Council In the later stage, with the gradual beginning of spring ploughing production, a series of policies, such as strengthening agricultural investment, supporting agricultural production, liberalizing the grain market and grain prices in an all-round way, implementing direct compensation for grain farmers, and canceling agricultural tax, will be more conducive to widely mobilize farmers' enthusiasm for grain production Supply side: In 2004, the domestic corn production was generally increased, and the increase range was unexpected It is estimated that the total output will reach more than 131 million tons, an increase of about 16 million tons year on year However, due to the factors such as the sharp decline of export, the slow growth of demand for feed and breeding enterprises, and the slow progress of grain reform, the acquisition period of domestic new corn was extended, and the corn price was relatively low, making farmers reluctant to sell Compared with the previous years, it is also very strong Before the festival, there is less grain to be sold After the festival, there are more corn to be kept Later, with the start of spring ploughing, farmers will prepare for farming and purchase agricultural materials Their reluctance to sell will be weakened In addition, the weather will be warmer and the storage of corn will become a big problem At the time, farmers will realize the surplus grain in their hands The domestic corn market is expected to usher in a new round of centralized listing Noodles In addition, the slow progress of grain reform in the early stage has affected the auction activity of domestic grain, and it is still an important work for the grain sector to deal with the "three old" problem in the later stage, especially in the northeast region, where the inventory of grain is still large, and the auction work of grain aging in the later stage will still be carried out At that time, when it overlaps with the centralized listing of new grain, the price of corn will still face the risk of falling In terms of demand: before the festival, farmers sell less grain, and there is sufficient corn supply Grain enterprises are worried about the price drop in the future and the limited quantity of stock before the festival, so that the corn inventory is generally low at present Especially after a period of consumption by some small and medium-sized feed factories, the purchase intention is very strong at present At the same time, in March, traders and grain enterprises also have the need to replenish the stock, but there is a need for At present, the price of corn in China is still in a weak position as a whole Generally, it will not purchase a lot of corn to build a warehouse, so it does not play a significant role in promoting the price of corn In addition, poultry breeding has not been fully recovered after the festival, and there is another outbreak of avian influenza in Vietnam around the Spring Festival, which poses a major threat to the domestic breeding industry If there is another outbreak of avian influenza in the later period of the country, the consumption of corn will drop significantly again Even if it does not happen, the demand for corn in the breeding industry will not increase significantly in the short term In the later stage, the slow growth of domestic corn demand will not be conducive to the rebound of corn prices In terms of export: Recently, the international freight rate has recovered again, and the competitiveness of China's corn export has increased again At present, the freight rate of Panamanian grain ship from the US Gulf to East Asia has increased by about $4 per ton compared with that a week ago As the spring in the northern hemisphere is the peak season of grain export in South America, the demand for shipment shows a seasonal growth At present, South America has been shipping a large number of iron ore and other raw materials to the Asian region, which will only aggravate the supply shortage of cargo ships, thus leading to the continued strong freight The offshore price of corn in China is basically the same as that a week ago, which is helpful for China to export corn to Southeast Asia and South Korea and other neighboring countries This is also confirmed by the latest customs data In January this year, China exported 480000 tons of corn, up from 340000 tons last month In addition, it is reported that this year, China will give certain policy support to the export of corn in the main production areas, encourage the expansion of export, and ensure the increase of farmers' production and income At present, the purchase of export corn sources in Northeast China is gradually unfolding, and the quantity of corn export in China will be expanded later, which will boost the price of corn in China Transportation: the shortage of imported cars around the Spring Festival has been plaguing the domestic corn shipment, and has become one of the main reasons to curb the rise of grain prices It is reported that there are still corn and rice waiting to be shipped on the platform in Northeast China, and they are stacked for a long time At the same time, before and after the Spring Festival this year, affected by the strong cold air from the south, the temperature in South China has obviously decreased, and the rainy weather has increased Recently, the snowfall process generally occurs in the north, so that the corn transportation from the north to the South will be affected to some extent, and the short-distance transportation of corn in the Northeast will also be restricted to some extent In addition, too much snow will make the water content of northeast corn on the high side, and the drying cost of northeast corn will also be increased in the later stage Although the peak of Spring Festival transportation is about to pass, the demand of other domestic material transportation such as iron ore is rising, and the corn transportation will still face the competition of other related materials in the later period, so it is not ruled out that the price of corn in the sales area will rise slightly if the short-term arrival of corn is insufficient To sum up, at present, with the continuous decrease of corn inventory of grain consuming enterprises, the demand for corn procurement will gradually recover Due to the untimely arrival of corn in some areas, corn prices may still fluctuate slightly However, with the beginning of spring ploughing, the effective supply of domestic corn market will be increased by farmers' cashing in grain, and the price of corn will also face certain resistance Although the price of international corn market is stronger, the export situation of domestic corn will continue to improve, so the demand of export corn will also increase, but the supply and demand situation of domestic corn market in March is still severe, and the supply is greater than the demand There is no fundamental change in the pattern, so it is expected that the domestic corn price will show an oscillating trend in March, and it is not ruled out that there may be a small increase in some places, but the space will not be large