Domestic corn price will be bullish this year

Introduction: according to the analysis of the information center of Jilin Food Bureau, according to the analysis of the information center of Jilin Food Bureau, the domestic corn price will go out of a round of rising market in 2003, especially after April and may, the trend of corn price rising will be more obvious This judgment is based on the following reasons: hy4 1 From the perspective of price, At present, the bottom characteristics of corn price show, and there is little room for the price to fall again Since the second half of 2002, the corn price has fallen for half a year The corn price in Jilin Province has fallen from 960 yuan / ton in July and August last year to 900 yuan / ton now The time and space for the corn price to fall is basically in place/ The price of corn sold should be about 900 yuan / ton for tons of purchased corn, plus the cost of acquisition and appropriate profits At present, the price of corn car in Jilin Province is only 920 yuan / ton, so it can be seen that the space for corn price to fall in the later period is basically closed Hy4 2 From the perspective of production, although corn in the main production area has achieved a great harvest this year, However, the increase of farmers' production did not increase their income It is predicted that the corn planting area in 2003 will be lower than that of the previous year, which will lead to the decrease of corn production and supply The reason is that the soybean price in Northeast China will rise, and the increase of farmers' soybean planting income will stimulate farmers to transfer part of corn planting land to soybean, At the same time, this year, the country will expand the planting area of high oil soybean in Northeast China, which will also reduce the corn planting area Hy43 From the perspective of consumption, although the corn consumption is unlikely to grow rapidly in the short term, it will still maintain a steady and slightly increasing trend Recently, the national livestock feed professional conference of the Ministry of agriculture predicted that the meat output of China in 2002 will be 65.5 million tons The output of eggs and milk was 23.6 million tons and 13.5 million tons respectively, up 3.4%, 1.0% and 20.2% over the previous year; The feed output is 82 million tons, an increase of 5.6% over the previous year The steady increase of meat, egg, milk and feed output will drive the synchronous growth of corn consumption, and it is expected that this trend will be maintained in 2003 Hy4 another problem worthy of attention is that after the opening of corn market in Huanghuai area of North China, corn inventory has declined significantly, At the same time, the development of breeding industry and deep processing of corn has also made a proper transformation from "corn supply self-sufficient type" to "corn supply insufficient type" At the end of 2002, corn in Northeast China entered customs ahead of time (in normal years, corn in Northeast China will enter into customs in March and April of the next year, That is to say, only when the basic consumption of newly produced corn in the last year in the North China Huanghuai region is completed will it enter the Guannei region, while in December 2002, enterprises in Hebei, Shandong and other places began to purchase corn in the northeast) It can not be simply explained by the lack of railway transportation capacity in the northeast region, and the more important factor behind it is the increase of demand and decrease of supply in the North China Huanghuai region 4 From the perspective of inventory, since 1998, China began to adjust the planting structure, the corn yield has declined due to the double effects of the decrease of planting area and natural disasters, which has led to the decrease of total corn supply and inventory level At present, the spatial distribution of domestic corn inventory is extremely uneven, that is, more corn is stored in the northeast, and the corn inventory in North China is reduced, South China and southwest China have declined significantly, and the characteristics of corn production and marketing areas are more obvious, which will increase the influence of corn in Northeast China on the national market compared with the previous years From the perspective of corn import and export situation, the corn export in 2003 will remain at a high level Market practice in the past year has proved that, China has the ability to maintain a high level of export while ensuring the basic stability of domestic corn prices In the January supply and demand report, the U.S Department of agriculture revised up the forecast value of China's corn export in 2002 / 2003 to 11 million tons, which is higher than the previous expectation of 10 million tons Due to the uncertain factors in subsidies, Therefore, the two major corn exporters authorized by the government have not yet started to provide the quotation of shipping date in April It is estimated that the FOB price of corn export quotation is about US $105 to US $110 per ton, and the CNF price of China's feed corn delivered to major Asian ports in the near future is US $116 to US $117 per ton In contrast, the US feed corn of the near future shipping date is quoted to the Asian CNF The quoted price is US $134 to US $135 per ton, and China's corn export still has an advantage in price According to relevant information, in 2003, Jilin grain group plans to export 5 million tons of corn If the international market price is good and the national policy supports, the export in 2003 will strive to reach the level of 6 million tons In, the transportation distance advantage of China's corn export to East Asia, Southeast Asia and other countries will still maintain the status of China's corn export power Hy4 at present, the spot corn FOB price in the Gulf of Mexico is about 105 US dollars / ton, which is in a high consolidation state Since the late December of last year, the international food ocean freight has increased slightly, At present, the ocean freight of grain from the Gulf of America to Japan is about 25 US dollars / ton to 25.5 US dollars / ton According to the current FOB price of the Gulf of Mexico port (shipment date in January), the reference price of American corn to the port of China is 1270 to 1280 yuan / ton, which is more than 100 yuan higher than the domestic corn price per ton The higher corn import cost prompted 2003 In, China's corn import will still be at a low level, and the impact of imported corn on domestic corn price is limited