Domestic corn import and export trade is still optimistic

Introduction: In the early stage of China's entry into WTO, the adverse effect of the market on China's corn export market is expected to be the worst The number of exports will be greatly reduced, and a large number of imported corn will flow in The original market distribution pattern of "northern grain transported to the South" will be replaced by the market pattern of "entering to the south but not going out" The export situation will face severe challenges In a word, the distribution pattern of northern grain transported to the South will be analyzed The bureau is not conducive to the effective circulation of China's corn in the market Affected by the transportation distance, the price cost of domestic corn is difficult to be lowered, and the competitiveness of the international market is also difficult to be enhanced This is what our government emphasizes in deepening the reform of the grain circulation system With the gradual deepening of the reform of the grain circulation system, the restrictive effect of the original reform of the circulation system on the market development is expected to be reduced, This change is the inevitable trend of market development, and should not be caused by the impact of China's accession to the WTO In the pre market stage, the expected import and export situation of corn is still optimistic under the national policy and the current domestic situation The specific analysis is as follows: first of all, the operability of import allocation is not strong After China's accession to the world trade organization, according to China's WTO commitments, China's import tariff quota of corn in 2002 was 5.85 million tons, which increased to 7.2 million tons by 2004; in 2002, the proportion of state-owned enterprises was 68%, the proportion of private enterprises was 32%, and the proportion of private enterprises would increase to 40% by 2004 That is to say, if the state grants the quota in full, 1.87 million tons of corn will be imported into the hands of private enterprises in 2002 Once the state policy allows and the commercial conditions are appropriate, these private enterprises will import again Therefore, in theory, corn import in the future is inevitable However, at present, China's corn supply and demand are basically balanced Due to the abundant original stock, there will be no shortage of corn supply, and the domestic supply-demand relationship will still be in a situation of supply exceeding demand Moreover, China's corn production also rebounded in 2001 / 02, which will to some extent stop the import of corn Secondly, corn export is expected to be optimistic According to the provisions of the WTO, China must cancel the export subsidy policy after entering the WTO, which is extremely unfavorable to China's export situation, that is to say, the export price of domestic corn will increase by 44 US dollars / ton on the current basis (105 US dollars / ton) Even if China's export price of corn does not rise to such a high point, the price after the cancellation of the subsidy will certainly be much higher than the current price, Therefore, the export competitiveness of China's corn will be lost, but the development of the situation has changed Recently, it is rumoured in the domestic market that relevant parties are studying and adjusting the export policy of corn, including temporarily exempting 13% value-added tax on export corn; reducing the railway transportation fund in Northeast China; reducing the port fee standard; encouraging the export of low-cost corn stored by the state, etc It is expected that market rumors will be confirmed, and the domestic corn export situation is expected to be optimistic again after the form of subsidies has been transformed Third, corn exports continue at the beginning of the new year According to the latest statistics released by the General Administration of customs, in January 2002, the export volume of corn in China decreased from 662700 tons in December 2001 to 229800 tons, a decrease of 65.3%; compared with January 2001, the export volume decreased by 377200 tons, a decrease of 62.1%; the export volume of the whole month was only 3.8% of the export volume of the whole year last year Although the number of exports has declined slightly, this kind of export is carried out in the face of the pressure of accession to the WTO, and the expectation of the export situation in the early stage of the market can be said to be very worried The continuous export is of positive help to alleviate the pressure of accession to the WTO and enhance market confidence Recently, South Korean traders said that South Korea's main feed processing plant group (MFG) purchased 50000 tons of Chinese corn from Cargill through private negotiations on March 26 CNF price is US $102.70 per ton This batch of corn is divided into two ships, 25000 tons are scheduled to arrive at Qunshan port on July 30, and the remaining 25000 tons will arrive at Qunshan on August 30 Therefore, it is rumoured in the international market that China Jiliang group began to offer corn after the shipment in July and August, with the lowest offshore offer of about $100 / ton The offer was mainly made through private negotiations It can be seen that domestic corn export is expected to continue in the new year Finally, domestic corn still has buyers in the international market The main buyers of Chinese corn are South Korea, Malaysia and Japan With China's accession to the WTO, the export volume of Chinese corn will decline The largest buyer of Chinese corn, South Korea, will turn its main source of corn to the United States and Brazil and Argentina in South America However, the reality shows that China's corn still has a certain share in the Korean market, which is under the protection of national policies It is expected to continue Malaysia, the second largest buyer of Chinese corn, has a unique advantage in its export of corn The first is that Chinese corn is cheap The second is that Chinese corn is flexible in transportation mode, and the quantity of shipment can be large or small, which is suitable for unloading in ports of some small islands in Malaysia The third factor is that compared with American and Argentine corn, the transportation time of Chinese corn is short; The fourth factor is that the water content of Chinese corn is relatively low, but the yellow pigment is relatively high, which is popular with local chicken farms The fourth factor is that American corn is not available, which is also the main reason why Korean local livestock owners do not like American corn very much However, Argentina and Thailand have the characteristics of small boat transportation, so the share of Chinese corn in Malaysia may decline slightly As for the Japanese market, China's share of the market is not large, but the price of corn in the market has always been relatively high After China's accession to the WTO, China may also export a small amount of edible corn to it Generally speaking, the relevant national policies have been issued successively, and the export support strength has recovered again In the later stage, the domestic corn export situation is still optimistic However, it is expected that the support strength of the policy will not be comparable with the previous year's high subsidies, so the export quantity will be lower than that of the previous year However, the continuous export of corn will play a role in reducing the bearish atmosphere of domestic corn and promoting the price rise Positive help.