Development trend of soybean in the world

Introduction: USDA's October production report expects us soybean production to reach 2.907 billion bushels in 2001 This forecast is 149 million bushels higher than the record production in 2000 and 73 million bushels higher than the forecast in September The world soybean production in 2001 / 02 is expected to reach 6.638 billion bushels, which is 275 million bushels higher than that in 2000 / 01 Soybean production in South America is expected to increase by 132 million bushels to a total of 2642 million bushels The expected increase in oilseed production, excluding soybeans, is much more stable, reflecting a decrease in sunflower and rapeseed production Palm oil production is expected to resume growth in 2001 / 02 Soybean consumption in the United States and the world is expected to continue to grow, led by a 5% increase in soybean meal consumption Stocks of soybeans and soybean oil are expected to remain large Prices are expected to continue at the low levels of the past three and a half years, unless there is a supply side problem For the 2001 / 02 market year, US soybean prices are expected to average 440 million bushels Producers' pricing decisions will continue to be closely related to the use of market lending projects Supply outlook at the beginning of the 2001 / 02 market year (i.e 1 September 2001) soybean stocks are estimated at 248 million bushels These inventories are much lower than expected in the same period last year, due to higher exports and domestic crushing than previously expected Domestic soybean crushing is particularly large in the second half of this market year, as soybean meal exports have increased to replace the vacancy after the European ban on meat and bone meal For the whole year, the crushing volume reached a record 1641 million bushels, an increase of 46 million bushels compared with the previous record (1997 / 98) In the last quarter, exports slowed significantly due to competition in South America and slower imports from China, but still to a record 1 billion bushels In its October production report, the U.S Department of agriculture expects soybean production to reach 2.907 billion bushels in 2001 This forecast is 73 million bushels higher than that in September, 149 million bushels higher than that in 2000, and much higher than the market forecast The large yield expectation reflects the record planting area of soybean, and the average per unit yield reaches the highest level since the historical record in 1994 In 2001, the sown area of soybean is expected to reach 75.4 million acres, 1.2 million acres more than that of the previous year, but 1.2 million acres less than that reported by the USDA in March The area with the largest increase in sowing area continues to be located in the western corn planting belt (Table 4) Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota accounted for 50.2% of the total soybean area in the United States, compared with 41% in 1990 when the soybean planting area in the United States reached a low point Since 1990, soybean acreage in these States has increased by more than 14 million acres At present, the soybean planting area in the Midwest and other plain States accounts for only 16% of the total soybean planting area in the United States At present, the average soybean yield in the United States is expected to be 39.2 bushels per acre, 1 bushel higher than the forecast in September and 1.1 bushel higher than the average of last year This is also the second high-yield year in the history of the United States, 2.2 bushels lower than the historical record of 1994 Soybean yield per unit area has been relatively stable since 1996, which is in contrast to the situation in the 1980s and the early 1990s, when the average yield tends to go up, but changes greatly Compared with last year's unit production, it is expected that there will be a significant increase in the southeast of the United States, as well as in Kansas and Nebraska Michigan and Minnesota have lower yields than last year Indiana is expected to have the highest yield of 49 bushels per acre, followed by Illinois and Nebraska (44 bushels), and Iowa and Ohio (43 bushels) These four states account for almost half of the expected production in the United States In 198719891991 and 1996, soybean production was reduced in September, and then increased in October During the four years, the increase in production from September to October ranged from 9 million bushels to 76 million bushels (0.05 to 3.3 percentage points) This year's output increased by 2.6 percentage points, which is within the historical range In the four years, the November production forecast exceeded the October forecast three times, ranging from 11 million bushels to 57 million bushels (0.05 to 2.4 percentage points) In the fourth year (1987), the November forecast was 8 million bushels lower than the October production forecast In 1991 and 1996, the forecast value of January exceeded that of October In 1989 and October, it was the same In 1987, it was lower than that of October The changes in forecasts so far this year are most similar to those in 1996 Based on the previous situation, the final production forecast for 2001 is likely to be within the range of 30 million bushels above and below the October forecast This analysis uses October USDA forecasts Consumption continued to increase with record domestic soybean meal consumption and higher soybean meal exports, resulting in a record domestic soybean crush in 2000 / 01 In the last quarter of the market year (summer), the squeeze is particularly large This quarter's squeezing accounted for 24.2% of the market's annual total, the largest percentage in 10 years In terms of the current year, domestic soybean meal consumption is expected to expand at a slower rate, because the number of live pigs is stable, while the number of live cattle is reduced, and the production of broilers is expected to expand at a rate of 2.5 percentage points The domestic soybean meal consumption increased by 2 percentage points, bringing the similar total amount to 32.49 million tons As of October 11, US soybean export sales were close to 2.1 million tons, 80% higher than the same period last year The increase in sales to Canada is the main reason for the increase in export sales For this year, USDA expects soybean meal exports to be slightly lower than last year's levels The world soybean meal consumption level is expected to increase, but the market share of the United States will lose to part of South America For the whole year, soybean meal exports are expected to reach 7.4 million tons, and the total consumption will reach 39.89 million tons If 50000 tons of imported soybean meal are taken into account, and 50000 tons of soybean meal are subtracted from the ending inventory, then there are 1658 million bushels of American soybean that need to be squeezed in 20001 / 02 to meet the consumption of soybean meal This forecast assumes that 48 pounds of soybean meal can be squeezed per bushel of soybean, the same as last year's extraction If 1.658 billion pounds of soybeans are crushed to meet the consumption of soybean meal, 18.632 billion pounds of soybean oil will be produced, if the per unit yield is close to 11.24 pounds of soybean oil per bushel last year The expansion of domestic soybean oil consumption by 2 percentage points will lead to a total consumption of 16.68 billion pounds in 2001 / 02 US soybean oil exports are expected to improve as world vegetable oil consumption expands and sunflower and rapeseed production is expected to decline The biggest drop in sunflower seed production was in the former Soviet Union, while Canada saw a drop in rapeseed production The increase in world palm oil production continues to pose a problem for us soybean oil exports Palm oil production, calculated at 24.61 million tons, is expected to increase by 4 percentage points this year over last year The output of major vegetable oil crops other than soybeans is expected to increase by 2.3 percentage points U.S soybean oil exports may be boosted by food aid programs USDA currently expects us soybean oil exports to reach 2.45 billion pounds in 2001 / 02 market year This is 1.05 billion pounds higher than the 2000 / 01 level, but 100 million pounds lower than last month's forecast The market is still in an early stage of the year, with unrealized commercial export sales of soybean oil slightly higher than the same period last year If exports reach 2.45 billion pounds, total consumption is expected to reach 19.13 billion pounds, with 2.4 billion pounds of inventory at the end of the year The ending inventory will be slightly smaller than the beginning inventory, but it will still be huge In 2000 / 01, the world soybean trade volume increased by 17 percentage points to a record 2 billion bushels The United States accounts for half of the world's exports, but South American soybean exports have grown 42% in the past year China in the EU has significantly increased soybean imports by 13% and 31% respectively The EU accounts for almost 33% of all imports, while China accounts for 24% of world soybean imports In June this year, China issued the regulatory requirements for the import of genetically modified soybeans, but there are no specific implementation rules, which makes the prospect of soybean import in the future year a layer of uncertainty As of October 11, China had purchased 36 million bushels of American soybeans delivered in the current year, but only imported 4 million bushels The total sales volume, together with the cumulative soybean exports (all destinations) to the United States as of October 11, totaled 369 million bushels, a 12 percentage point increase over the same period last year However, in the first six weeks of the year, only 63 million bushels of shipments were shipped to all destinations, a 43% decrease from the cumulative shipments in the same period last year The expectation of another soybean harvest in South America in 2002 means that American export will still face the white hot competition USDA currently expects soybean production in South America to reach 2.642 billion bushels, 5.3 percentage points higher than that harvested in 2001 Soybean planting area is expected to increase by 11 percentage points in Brazil and 4 percentage points in Argentina If this production becomes a reality, the United States will face difficulties in exporting 1 billion bushels of soybeans as it did in 2000 / 01 The export estimate used here is 975 million bushels Price forecast based on the forecast data used above, U.S soybean stocks will rise to 360 million bushels at the end of 2001 / 02 market year This will be the highest closing inventory level in 15 years Based on the percentage of usage (12.9%), inventory will be the highest level in three years The annual average price of soybeans is expected to be much lower than the loan rate and the level in the past three years The annual average price is expected to be just $4.40 If there is a problem with soybean production in South America, or if the growth season in 2002 is not good for soybeans in the United States, then this estimated price level is obviously too low In the near term, however, the expectation of large supply will continue to put pressure on prices So what is the annual price forecast? In the first and last quarters of the market year, spot prices for soybeans tend to be extreme In the past 28 years, the highest daily spot price has appeared 9 times in September, October or November, 13 times in June, July or August The highest price was once in January, once in April and four in May The lowest spot price occurs 12 times in September, October and November, and 13 times in June, July or August The low point occurred once in December, once in March and once in April In the past three years, spot prices for soybeans in central Illinois have ranged from $3.875 to $4.295 a day The lowest price so far in the 2001 / 02 market year was $4.065, which was set on October 15 History will show that spot soybean prices are catching up