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1.
High-end polyolefins have a high technical threshold, and the import substitution market exceeds 100 billion

High-end polyolefins usually have the characteristics of high technical content, high application performance and high market value, with high technical threshold, strong product specificity, service-oriented sales, high product prices and small
fluctuations.

High-end polyolefins have better performance than ordinary polyolefins
.
According to the polypropylene people public number, metallocene polyethylene film has excellent physical and mechanical properties, such as: puncture resistance, impact resistance, high tensile force, good tearing and other characteristics
。 At the same time, it has the characteristics of moisture-proof, air insulation, oxidation, oil resistance, freeze resistance, retort resistance, chemical corrosion resistance, non-toxic, tasteless, does not affect food nutrients, maintains food aroma, good printing performance, easy to open and other characteristics; The general LLDPE film in the presence of grease is easy to migrate, oxidation, under the action of alkali, acid or strong surfactant, heat sealing weld seam will often rupture, causing pollution, there is a significant gap in the performance of
the two.

High-end polyolefins can be divided into two categories: high-end grades of bulk varieties and specialty polyolefins
.
According to the "Research on the Path of New Chemical Materials to Fill the Short Board" written by Zhang Li et al.
, high-end polyolefins mainly include two categories: one is the high-end grades of bulk varieties, such as multi-peak and metallocene polyethylene, metallocene polypropylene, high-carbon α-olefin copolymer polyolefins, etc.
; The second is special varieties of polyolefins, such as ethylene-octene copolymerization (POE) elastomer, ethylene-vinyl acetate copolymerization (EVA) resin, polybutene-1 (PB-1), ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene (uHMWPE), ethylene-vinyl alcohol copolymer resin (EVOH), cyclic olefin copolymer (COC/COP) and so on
.

In recent years, the production of polyolefin products produced by metallocene catalysts has increased rapidly and has occupied the market
with its excellent material properties.
Specifically, metallocene polyolefin products include metallocene polyethylene (mPE), metallocene polypropylene (mPP), metallocene inter-gauge polystyrene, metallocene ring olefins, polyolefin elastomers (POE) and so on
.

1.
1 Metallocene has strong catalytic activity and excellent uniformity of catalytic synthesis products

According to the "Application Status of Domestic Metallocene Catalysts and the Performance Analysis of Major Products" written by Zhang Zhichuan et al.
, metallocene catalysts are usually catalytic systems
composed of metallocene compounds and cocatalysts.
A metallocene compound generally refers to a metallocene complex consisting of a transition metal element or a rare earth element and at least one cyclopentadiene or a derivative thereof as a ligand
.
Cocatalysts are mainly alkyl aluminooxanes or organoboron compounds
.

Compared with other catalysts, metallocene catalysts have unique performance characteristics
.
According to the "New Progress in the Research of Metallocene Catalysts and Olefin Polymer Materials" written by Han Yunyan et al.
, when metallocene catalysts are catalyzed to synthesize polymers, their catalytic activity has obvious advantages over other catalysts, especially zirconium lute catalysts as typical representatives.
Secondly, since the catalytic activity center of the metallocene catalyst is single, when it catalyzes polymerization, it can promote the molecular mass distribution of the comonomer on the polymer main chain is narrow and uniform, which determines the homogeneity of the polymer synthesized by the polymer.
In addition, in terms of catalyzing the copolymerization of different monomers, metallocene catalysts have better advantages than other catalysts
.

1.
2 The diversity of metallocene catalyst structures enables the production of a wide variety of polyolefin products

Metallocene has a rich structure, depending on its structure, different polyolefins
can be produced.
According to Chen Zhikang et al.
's "Metallocene Catalyst System and Its Regulation of Propylene Polymerization Performance", there are thousands of metallocene catalysts that can produce metallocene polypropylene, but the structure of polypropylene produced by each catalyst is different; The structure of the same catalyst to generate polypropylene under different reaction conditions is also different
.
It can be seen that the polymerization behavior of metallocene catalyst systems is much richer than that of traditional catalysts, and can produce more structural types of polyolefins
.

According to the "Research Progress of Olefin Polymerization Catalysts" written by Xu Di et al.
, according to the structural classification, metallocene catalysts can be divided into bridgeless metallocene catalysts, bridged metallocene catalysts, bridged bi-(multi)nucleoperite catalysts, monocene metal catalysts and other types, and metallocene catalysts with different structures have different functional characteristics
.

1.
3 The technical barriers of metallocene catalysts are high, and the industrialization has not yet been realized in China

Methyl aluminooxane (MAO) is one of the components of the metallocene catalyst, and its role is to alkylate the metallocene to generate an active center
.
According to the information released by the new thinking world website, the methyl aluminoxidine production capacity is mainly concentrated in Japan, the United States, Europe and other regions, and the main suppliers include Japan's Dongcao, Albemarle, Lanxess, Chemtura, AkzoNobel, etc
.
Limited by raw materials and production technology, at present, China does not have the industrial production capacity of methyl aluminumoxane, only some enterprises have a patent layout, and the products are mainly imported
from foreign enterprises.

Regarding the geographical distribution of metallocene catalyst patent applications, according to the "Metallocene Catalyst Patent Technology Review", the United States has the largest number of patents in the catalytic polymerization of metallocene, followed by Japan, China, Germany and South Korea
.
In the world's patent application volume in the field of metallocene catalysts, China's Sinopec ranks among the best, and Univation, Exxon, Philip Petroleum, BP Petroleum, Basel Polyolefins and other enterprises are on the list, but the article believes that compared with the international advanced level, there is still a big gap in the technical research and development level of metallocene catalysts in
China.

1.
4 The industrialization level of domestic high-end polyolefins needs to be improved urgently, and the import substitution space reaches 100 billion yuan

High-end polyolefins are abundant, and the product performance is far better than that of ordinary polyolefins
.
According to the "high-end polyolefin products will be the focus of industry development" published in Guangzhou Chemical Industry, domestic enterprises have achieved continuous production on high-end polyolefin products such as mPE, mPP, EVA, ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene, but have not yet achieved industrial production on high-end polyolefin products such as octene copolypolyethylene, EVOH, polybutene-1, EAA, POE, etc.
, and further industrialization of high-end polyolefins is imminent
.

The self-sufficiency rate of domestic high-end polyolefin products is only 41%, the technology dependence is high, and the replacement market for imported products reaches 100 billion yuan
.
According to an article published by the public account of China Chemical Information Weekly, the consumption scale of high-end polyolefins in China exceeds 12 million tons, but the self-sufficiency rate is only 41%, and the self-sufficiency rate is seriously lower than that of other high-end resin products, and the reason is largely due to the limitations of
technical barriers.
At present, the domestic polyolefin industry is still dependent on the introduction of foreign technology, and domestic technology is still in a relatively backward stage
.
At present, there is a lot of room for high-end polyolefin import substitution, according to the data of China supplier network, with the average price of high-end polyolefins 15,000 yuan / ton estimated, we expect that there is a market
of more than 100 billion yuan for high-end polyolefin import substitution.

We believe that the core barrier of all high-end polyolefin products is a catalyst
.
Taking high-crystalline polypropylene (HCPP) as an example, according to the "Research and development and industrialization progress of high-crystalline polypropylene (HCPP)" written by Wang Xiong et al.
, catalyst system and polymerization technology are important factors
affecting the specifications of products 。 According to the type of polymerization, the current main processes are BP's Innovene fumed process, Chisso's fumed process, UCC's Unipol process, NSH's Novolen fumed process, Sumitomo (Sumitomo) fumed process, Basell's Spheripol process, Mitsui Corporation's Hypol process, and Borealis' Borstar process.
Different polymerization processes require the selection of the appropriate polymerization catalyst system
.

The domestic market of 1.
5 mPE is not mature, and we expect import substitution space to exceed 20 billion yuan

mPE has good rigidity, transparency, heat seal strength, stress cracking resistance, is widely used in packaging films, pipes, injection molding, rotational molding field, of which the packaging film field is the largest consumer field of
mPE.
According to the "Metallocene Polyethylene Market Status and Technology Progress", in 2019, the global production of food and non-food packaging film mPE accounted for about 36% and 47%
of the total consumption, respectively.
We expect that as the material requirements of the PE market rise, the demand for mPE will grow further in
the future.

From the perspective of the existing market size, as of 2020, the domestic market mPE consumption accounts for only 5.
81% of the total domestic PE consumption, while the global mPE consumption accounts for 23.
91% of PE, and there is still a large room
for development in the domestic market.
In 2020, the apparent consumption of domestic mPE reached 2.
2078 million tons, the domestic output was only 189,400 tons, and the import dependence exceeded 90%, according to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, according to the average price of 10,500 yuan / ton, we estimate that the import market substitution space exceeded 20 billion
.

2.
High-end polypropylene is highly dependent on imports, and the replacement space is broad

2.
1 In 2016, the import volume of high-end polypropylene reached 3.
3 million tons, and the development prospects of various downstream application areas are broad

In 2016, the import volume of high-end polypropylene special materials reached 3.
3 million tons, and we expect that the demand for high-end polypropylene special materials will continue to grow in
the future.
According to Zhao Wenming's "High-end Polyolefin Resin Industry Development Status and Market Forecast", in 2016, the import volume of high-end polypropylene special materials reached 3.
3 million tons, with the upgrading of downstream consumption structure, suitable for BOPP film materials with higher tensile speed and width and ultra-thin, ultra-transparent and better low-temperature heat sealing performance, as well as BOPP film materials for high-end applications such as smoke film, electrical film, capacitor film, etc.
, ternary random copolymer CPP film material with good softness and low temperature heat sealing performance spunbond non-woven fabric, melt-blown non-woven fabric, Fine denier and ultra-fine denier polypropylene fiber and other high-end non-woven special materials, polypropylene tube materials, automotive and electrical injection plastics, high transparency thin-walled food containers and medical products injection plastics and other special material brands have good
market development prospects.

There are many
kinds of high-end polypropylene.
According to the auxiliaries Bang public number, high-end polypropylene mainly includes: metallocene polypropylene, high melt strength polypropylene, foamed polypropylene, high transparent polypropylene, "three high and two low" polypropylene, low ash thermoformed polypropylene, high crystalline polypropylene, ultra-high molecular weight polypropylene, high gloss polypropylene, low shrinkage polypropylene, antibacterial polypropylene, etc
.
Among them, pipe materials, ternary copolymerization cast film materials, transparent materials, medium and high melting high impact copolymers, thermoforming and thin-walled injection plastics, high melt fiber materials, etc.
have become hot products
for domestic development.

The domestic market space of high-end polypropylene is large, and the import substitution space is broad
.
According to the polyolefin people public number, in recent years, the domestic polypropylene production capacity and output has been continuously improved, in 2021 the domestic polypropylene production capacity has exceeded 32 million tons / year, China's polypropylene general material production capacity has reached a serious degree of
excess.
Polypropylene structural oversupply and insufficient supply still exists, on the one hand, there is a surplus of low-end general-purpose products, on the other hand, some high-end copolymer polypropylene, film-grade polypropylene and transparent materials will still be imported
products.
According to Baichuan Yingfu data, China's polypropylene imports reached 6.
55 million tons in 2020, the highest in recent years, and imports in 2021 fell slightly to 4.
8 million tons.

Most of the polypropylene imported in China are high-end polypropylene products, and the replacement space is broad
.

2.
2 Metallocene polypropylene has excellent performance, and domestic industrial production has not been realized

2.
2.
1 Metallocene polypropylene has obvious advantages over ordinary polypropylene, and the product performance is excellent

Polypropylene is the world's second largest variety of general-purpose plastics, and the main key to its industrial technology development lies in the catalyst
.
According to the polyolefin people public account, polypropylene is a very widely used general plastic, the current consumption of polypropylene in the world is second only to polyethylene
.
The structural properties of the catalyst determine the micro and macroscopic structure of polypropylene products and their mechanical properties and use properties, and the successful development of each new catalyst system will bring new polymerization processes and new olefin polymerization products
.
Polypropylene is mainly produced by traditional Zieglernata catalysts, and metallocene polypropylene (mPP) has some special properties that traditional polypropylene does not have, so its market demand is increasing
.

Compared with traditional polypropylene, metallocene polypropylene has better properties
.
According to the Polyolefin Man public number, mPP produced with metallocene catalysts has a narrow relative molecular mass distribution, small microcrystalline, excellent impact strength and toughness, good transparency, high gloss, good radiation resistance, excellent insulation properties, and can be well compatible
with other resins.
In addition, many new propylene copolymers that are difficult to polymerize by metallocene catalysts can be polymerized, such as propylene - styrene random copolymer, propylene - styrene block copolymer, propylene - long chain olefin copolymer, propylene - cyclolefin copolymer and propylene - diolefin copolymer and the like
.

Conventional polypropylene and metallocene polypropylene are also not the same
application.
According to the polyolefin public account, traditional polypropylene is mainly used in fiber products, medical devices, automobiles, chemical containers and other fields, and is also used in food and drug packaging
.
Metallocene polypropylene is mainly used in non-woven fabrics and spinning, injection molding and film materials and other fields
.

2.
2.
2 The supply gap of metallocene polypropylene in China is obvious, and industrialization is difficult

According to the polyolefin people public number, the current industrial production of metallocene polypropylene products mainly include high-gauge polypropylene, low-gauge polypropylene, inter-gauge polypropylene, propylene copolymer and so on
.
The characteristics of each product and the main manufacturers are shown in the following table:

According to Gao Mingyu's "Research Progress and Application of Metallocene Polypropylene Products", the current metallocene polypropylene catalyst market is mainly controlled
by Basel in the Netherlands, ExxonMobil Chemical Company in the United States and Total Petrochemical in France.
The application of metallocene polypropylene is very extensive, mainly concentrated in the three aspects of non-woven fabrics and spinning, injection molding and membrane materials, the main production enterprises are Basel, ExxonMobil, Total, JPP, Mitsui Chemical, Clariant Chemical, etc
.

The supply gap of domestic metallocene polypropylene is obvious, and industrialization is difficult
.
According to the polyolefin people public number, the main key to the development of polypropylene industrial technology lies in the catalyst, the structural properties of the catalyst determine the micro and macroscopic structure of the product and their mechanical properties and use performance
.
At present, only PetroChina Petrochemical Institute has successfully developed metallocene polypropylene catalysts PMP-01 and MPP-S02, and successfully produced high-transparent metallocene polypropylene MPP6006
using Harbin petrochemical polypropylene device.
In addition, only two enterprises, Yanshan Petrochemical and Duzishan Petrochemical, have the ability to
produce metallocene polypropylene.

Overall, the domestic metallocene polypropylene production is low, and the import dependence is high
.
According to the polypropylene public account, in 2020, the consumption of metallocene polypropylene in the domestic market will be 102,000 tons, accounting for only 0.
32% of the total domestic consumption of polypropylene; According to the process industry network, the global consumption of metallocene polypropylene in 2020 will be 750,000 tons, accounting for 0.
96%
of the total global consumption of polypropylene.
According to the public account of polypropylene people, in 2020, the domestic output of metallocene polypropylene in China can only meet its own 12.
7% demand, and the import dependence will reach 87.
3%.

2.
3 The demand for polypropylene three high materials reached 500,000 tons / year, and the lightweight demand of the automotive industry increased by demand

Polypropylene Tri-High Material (HCPP) is a special polypropylene product
with excellent performance.
According to the public number of polypropylene people, polypropylene three high material is an important variety of copolymer polypropylene, with excellent mechanical properties, chemical stability, creep resistance and other advantages, and processing and molding fast, can prepare large thin-walled products and save raw materials, in the automotive, home appliances and other fields have been widely used
.
It is characterized by "three high and two low", that is, high melting finger, high modulus, high impact resistance, low odor, and low VOC
.

The development of lightweight in the automotive industry is driving the growth
of HCPP demand.
According to the polypropylene people public account, HCPP is mainly used for home appliance modification products, large injection molded products, and automotive parts, such as columns, door panels, bumpers, etc
.
With the development of the domestic automotive industry and the trend of lightweight automobiles, the demand for HCPP in automobiles is also increasing
.
At present, the proportion of non-metallic materials for vehicles has reached more than
50%.

Homopolymerized HCPP has been basically localized, and copolymerized products have a high
degree of external dependence.
According to the data of China Chemical Information Consulting, the domestic market consumption of HCPP in 2019 is about 500,000 tons, which can be divided into two categories: copolymerized HCPP and homopolymerized HCPP, of which homopolymer HCPP is mainly domestic products, and 96% of the products are supplied
by Chinese enterprises.
The external dependence of copolymerized HCPP products is high, and the import proportion is as high as 89%.

SK Chemical, Nordic Chemical, and LeanderBasel have a market share
of 35%, 24% and 14% in China, respectively.

3.
Other high-end polyolefin product introduction

3.
1 Ultra-low ash polypropylene downstream is mainly battery separator, capacitor film industry, import dependence of 95%

According to the polyolefin people public number, ultra-low ash polypropylene finger ash content of polypropylene products within 0.
005, the downstream areas are mainly battery separators, capacitor films, baby plastic products, home appliances industry, etc
.
According to the statistics of China Chemical Information Consulting, the consumption of battery separator and capacitor film industry accounts for a total of 93%.

In terms of battery separator, ultra-low ash polypropylene is mainly used for dry lithium battery separator, product performance is inferior to wet separator, we expect it to be gradually replaced in the future, the market space is limited
.

According to the data of the polyolefin people's public account, in 2019, the domestic consumption of ultra-low ash polypropylene was 104,000 tons, of which the import volume was 98,800 tons, accounting for 95%.

Korea Oil, Nordic Chemical, and TPC are the main import suppliers
.

Polypropylene ash has a wide range of sources, ultra-low ash polypropylene production is difficult, at present China does not have ultra-low ash polypropylene large-scale production capacity
.
According to the data of New Civic and Baichuan Yingfu, the annual market price of ultra-low gray polypropylene imported from China is 1550-2050 US dollars / ton, and the gap with ordinary polypropylene material is 593-1096 US dollars / ton
.
In the future market development, Chinese enterprises still need to improve their production technology and ash control, and improve the localization rate
of ultra-low ash polypropylene.
Considering the shrinking market for dry lithium battery separators, it is necessary to continue to expand the new application areas of ultra-low gray polypropylene and develop new application markets
.

3.
2 The development of the automobile and photovoltaic markets has led to the rapid growth of domestic POE demand, and the localization of POE is imminent

According to the polyolefin public number, POE is a polyolefin material copolymerized by ethylene and α-olefins, the comonomer content in the molecular chain is high, the density is low, and the high elasticity of rubber is presented without vulcanization under normal temperature conditions, and plastic flow can occur when it is higher than the melting temperature of the polyethylene chain section, which has good rheological properties and mechanical properties, etc.
, and is used
in automobiles, hot melt adhesives, cable sheaths and other fields.

According to the market analysis of polyolefin elastomers (POEs) and the current status of technology at home and abroad by Wei Hao et al.
, due to the excellent material properties of POEs, its downstream applications are extensive
.
POE can be used for the toughening and modification of PP, the improvement of PP/PE return performance, the toughening and compatibility agent of PA nylon, the modification of EVA extrusion hose and the use of foaming, mastering or filling masterbatch, the production of hot melt adhesives, cable sheath materials, membranes, etc
.
At present, it is widely used in auto parts, wires and cables, household goods, toys, mechanical tools, entertainment and sporting goods, shoe soles, hot melt adhesives, seals and other fields, in addition, the POE demand for photovoltaic film is also growing
rapidly in recent years.

According to the polyolefin people public number information, in foreign countries, most of the automotive bumper field has adopted POE elastomer for blending modification; In China, only about 20% of the bumper material uses POE elastomers, and the future material replacement space is significant
.

In recent years, the photovoltaic market new installed capacity to maintain a high growth rate, according to the European Photovoltaic Industry Association forecast, 2021-2025 period of global photovoltaic new installed capacity is expected to exceed 1000GW
.
Photovoltaic film is an important component of photovoltaic units, and POE film has the advantages
of low water permeability, strong ultraviolet stability, and low glass transition temperature compared with EVA film.

Photovoltaic cell modules are divided into N-type cells and P-type cells
.
According to China's photovoltaic industry data, the average industry value of mass production conversion efficiency of P-type PERC monocrystalline cells in 2020 is 22.
8%, which has basically reached the limit
of mass production performance.
Compared with P-type batteries, N-type batteries have the comprehensive advantages of high conversion efficiency, low temperature coefficient, low light attenuation coefficient, weak light response, etc.
, not only lower BOS cost, but also higher power generation of N-type batteries in the whole life cycle than P-type
.
According to the expansion plan of various mainstream manufacturers, the expansion plan of N-type batteries in 2022 may reach 40-50GW to achieve large-scale mass production
.
N-type demand will have an impact on the competitive landscape of all links in the industrial chain, among which the improvement of battery packaging protection requirements will directly affect the changes in the market share of module adhesive film, and the penetration rate of POE film products will be further improved
.

This is due to the fact that the PID effect of N-type batteries is more sensitive
in the light receiving surface.
For N-type components with large PID attenuation, after the light is restored, it cannot meet the indicators
of low attenuation rate.
The pure POE film has excellent insulation performance, which meets the technical requirements of N-type batteries for PID, and increasing the protection of the front power generation of components is the first choice for
N-type batteries in terms of packaging.
At the same time, pure POE film has a lower water vapor transmittance than EVA film or EPE film, which can meet the long-term weather resistance requirements
of N-type batteries.
Based on the above background, we expect the demand for POE PV market to grow
rapidly in the future.

According to the article "Polyolefin Elastomer and Plastic Body Products and Applications", foreign POE manufacturers mainly include Dow, Exxon, Mitsui, SK, SABIC, Borealis, LG, the total POE production capacity of the above enterprises reached 1.
021 million tons / year, most of which have relevant proprietary production technology, of which Dow production capacity accounted for the largest, with 441,000 tons / year POE capacity
.

According to the public number information of polyolefin people, polypropylene people and new chemical materials, the global and domestic POE consumption will reach 1.
2 million tons and 500,000 tons respectively in 2020, of which the global photovoltaic material consumption accounts for 15.
50%.

Based on the annual growth rate of domestic POE consumption by 10%, we expect that the domestic POE demand will exceed 800,000 tons
by 2025.
Limited by catalyst patent barriers, lack of polymerization process research, high carbon α olefin shortage and other factors, the domestic has not yet achieved large-scale industrial application of POE, and the supply mainly depends on imports
.
We believe that with the rapid growth of market demand in downstream automobiles, photovoltaics and other industries, the localization of POE is imminent
.

3.
3 The process of independent research and development of domestic high-carbon α-olefins has accelerated, and some projects have entered the industrialization demonstration stage

According to Lu Peng's "Production Technology and Application Progress of α-olefins", α-olefins refer to monoolefins with double bonds at the end of molecular chains, and have different applications
according to the length of their carbon chains.
High carbon α-olefin refers to the number of carbon greater than or equal to 6 α-olefins, which are applied to polyethylene copolymer monomers can develop mechanical performance, heat resistance performance of better polyethylene products, the current widely used mainly for 1-hexene, 1-octene
.

According to the polyolefin public number, the production methods of α-olefins mainly include ethylene polymerization process, wax cracking process, alkane catalytic cracking process, coal chemical extraction process, extraction and separation method, fatty alcohol dehydrogenation method, olefin dimerization and disproportionation, high-temperature Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, etc
.
The distribution of products obtained by various methods varies
.
High-carbon α-olefin production is difficult, the barrier is high, as an important raw material for POE is strictly blocked by overseas enterprises, restricting its transfer
.

CNCET data show that the world's total α-olefin production capacity is about 5.
65 million tons / year, of which according to product types, the production capacity of hexene-1 and octene-1 belonging to high-carbon α-olefins is about 1.
24 million tons / year and 1.
12 million tons / year
, respectively.

According to the polyolefin people's public number, at present, some domestic enterprises have the production capacity of 1-hexene and 1-decene, and have not yet realized the large-scale industrial production
of 1-octene.
In 2018, the apparent consumption of octene-1 in China was 1500 tons, all relying on imports
.
The hexene-1 aspect involves a production capacity of 75,000 tons/year, and the apparent consumption in 2018 was 87,000 tons
.

In recent years, the domestic high-carbon α-olefin independent research and development process has accelerated, and the self-research and development of related technologies has been preliminarily completed, and some enterprises have built 1-octene synthesis industrial test devices and entered the industrial demonstration stage
.

Source: New Think

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