【Deep Painting Society Industry News】Ten new materials industry space is fully combed

This paper sorts out the market space of the ten new materials industry chain in detail

It is mainly based on five major fields: photovoltaic, wind power, new energy vehicles, semiconductors, and military industry

Suppose that the wind curtailment rate is 30% and the light curtailment rate is 20% in 2025, and all the curtailment is made of hydrogen
.
The total amount of curtailed electricity is 313.
6 billion kWh, which can be made into 6.
17 billion kilograms of hydrogen
.
Assuming that the cost of hydrogen is 18.
5 yuan / kg, the total output value is 114.
1 billion yuan.

Hydrogen storage technology is generally divided into physical hydrogen storage and chemical hydrogen storage, physics: high-pressure gaseous hydrogen storage, low-temperature liquid hydrogen
storage.
Chemical hydrogen storage includes hydrogen storage in solid metals and hydrogen
storage in organic solutions.

According to CPIA data, the global demand for polysilicon in 2020 is 460,000 tons, and the demand in 2025 is expected to be 2.
03 million tons, with a CAGR of 45%.

The conversion relationship between silicon metal and polysilicon: 1 ton of polysilicon requires 1.
2 tons of industrial silicon (silicon metallic), and 1GW of photovoltaic installed capacity requires about 4700 tons of silicon
metallic.

According to the data of Adroit Market Research, the global power lithium battery market will gradually expand at a compound annual growth rate of about 14% in 2018-25, so it is expected that by 2025, the global power lithium battery market size will be expected to reach $100 billion
。 Under the assumption of optimistic expectations, the market penetration rate of solid-state batteries is expected to reach 5%, so the market size of solid-state batteries will likely reach $5 billion
.

In order to more easily understand the market space of $100 billion of power batteries in 2025, the specific detailed conversion relationship is as follows: assuming that each new energy vehicle uses 60KWh batteries, it is expected that global new energy vehicle sales will be 15 million in 2025 Then the global total power battery demand will reach 900GWh; According to the battery price of $100/KWh, the market size of power batteries is expected to reach the level of
$100 billion in 2025.

Fuel cell pulls platinum demand: current technology, China's fuel cell platinum consumption is about 0.
4g/kW on average, international cutting-edge technology can achieve 0.
2g/kW, it is expected that 2025 can further reduce fuel cell platinum consumption, Reduced to 0.
1 g/kW
.
Let's assume that in 2025, the average power of fuel cell vehicles is 100kW, then a fuel cell vehicle consumes about 10g of platinum, so the platinum demand driven by every 1 million fuel cell vehicles is about 10 tons
。

According to SEMI statistics, the global shipment area of silicon wafers in 2020 will reach 12.
407 billion square inches, and the area of 12-inch silicon wafers will be about 113.
09 square inches per piece, which is about equal to 110 million 12-inch silicon wafers
.
The current price of 12-inch silicon wafers is about $100 / piece, and the global market size in 2020 is $11.
154 billion
.
At an annual growth rate of 3%, the global market size will be about $13 billion
in 2025.

According to SEMI data, sputtering targets will account for 2.
6% of wafer fabrication materials and 2.
7% of packaging materials in 2020
.
At the same time, according to the data of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the global wafer manufacturing market size in 2020 is 34.
839 billion US dollars, and the global market size of packaging and testing is 20.
4 billion US dollars
.
Combined, the sputtering target market size will be $1.
456 billion
in 2020.
With an average annualized growth rate of 3% in the past three years, it is estimated that in 2025, the global market size of packaging and test materials will be 23.
649 billion US dollars, and the global market size of sputtering targets will reach 1.
687 billion US dollars
。

Due to the huge incremental demand for carbon neutrality, we mainly estimate the demand for wind power, and 1GW of wind power requires about 311 tons of carbon fiber
.
In 2020, the newly installed capacity of wind power will be 96.
3GW
。 According to the price assumption of 140,000 yuan / ton, we calculate that the carbon fiber market size for wind power in 2020 is about 4.
2 billion yuan.

In 2025, we assume that the newly installed capacity of wind power is 400GW, corresponding to about 120,000 tons of carbon fiber, then the market size is about 17 billion yuan
.

The demand for superalloys for military aero engines comes from two main parts
.

1) Engine increment: We predict that the number of newly produced military aircraft in China in 2025 will be 200 / year
.
Based on the basic assumption that new military aircraft will be equipped with an average of 3 engines (fighters are twin-engined and each aircraft is equipped with a spare engine), the number of new engines added in 2025 will be 600
。

2) Engine maintenance and replacement: The working life of the military engine is normal 400-500 hours, assuming that the average replacement cycle of the military aircraft engine is about one year
.
It is estimated that by 2025, the existing stock of military aircraft is about 3500, and based on the assumption that each military aircraft needs to replace 1.
5 engines, we expect that China's stock of military aircraft engine replacement demand will reach 5250 units in 25 years
。 According to the available data, it is roughly assumed that the mass of each military aero engine is 1.
5 tons, of which the mass of the superalloy accounts for 50%, and the completion rate of the superalloy during the production process is 10%.
The corresponding superalloy consumption of each aircraft engine is about 7.
5 tons
.
Based on this, we predict that in 2025, the demand for superalloys for domestic military aircraft engines will exceed 43,000 tons
.
According to the price of 300,000 yuan / ton, the scale of superalloys in the military engine segment will be expected to reach 13 billion yuan
in 2025.

According to Yole's forecast, global gallium arsenide production will rise from $200 million in 2020 to $348 million in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 10%.

Chart 1: Top 10 new materials market space growth rate and scale at a glance

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