【Deep Coating Society Industry Information】HJT reduces the cost of key materials, and the demand for this scarce small material has soared by nearly 40 times

The photovoltaic silver paste industry is in the development stage of "steady growth of overall demand + rapid growth of low-temperature silver paste + continuous improvement of localization rate", in the context of the localization of positive silver paste, the import substitution process of silver powder accelerates, and at the same time, the proportion of HJT battery market increases to quickly release the demand for silver-clad copper powder, and it is expected that the market prospects of domestic photovoltaic silver paste silver powder and silver-clad copper powder are broad
.

First, the ins and outs

Photovoltaic silver paste is a key material for the preparation of metal electrodes of crystalline silicon solar cells, and the cost proportion is higher
in HJT cells.
At present, the back silver paste has basically achieved local substitution, and the localization rate of front silver paste in 2020 is 50%, which is expected to continue to increase
.

The latest research report of CITIC Securities believes that the photovoltaic silver paste industry is in the three-phase superimposed development stage of "steady growth of overall demand + rapid growth of low-temperature silver paste + continuous improvement of localization rate", and the market prospects of domestic photovoltaic silver paste silver powder and silver-clad copper powder are broad
.

It is estimated that in 2025, the demand for silver powder for domestic photovoltaic silver paste (referring to the silver powder used in domestic photovoltaic silver paste, not domestic silver powder, the same below) will reach 4306 tons, and the compound growth rate of demand from 2021 to 2025 will be 22.
6%; In 2025, the demand for silver-clad copper powder for domestic photovoltaic silver paste will reach 460 tons, and the compound growth rate of demand from 2021 to 2025 will be 345.
4%.

Second, the current situation of demand

Cost reduction is the key to the industrialization of
HJT batteries.
HJT cells are expected to become the next generation of mainstream technology
for crystalline silicon solar cells.

According to China Energy Network, the HJT industry expansion is expected to reach 20-30GW in 2022, of which India's REC signed a 4.
8GW equipment order with Mawei shares, and LONGi Green Energy also began to build HJT R&D and pilot lines
this year.
According to the statistics announced by various companies, the global HJT planned production capacity has exceeded 120GW.

Cost reduction is still the key to
HJT's industrialization.
In the cost of HJT batteries, low-temperature silver paste accounts for about 20% of the total cost, accounting for more than 50% of the cost of non-silicon wafers in cells, and the cost reduction of low-temperature silver paste is of great significance
for the industrialization of HJT batteries.

At present, the path of cost reduction of HJT batteries is clear, and there are four ways to reduce the cost of low-temperature silver paste: 1) the use of new composite pastes such as silver-clad copper; 2) Reduce the single consumption of low-temperature silver paste; 3) localization of low-temperature silver paste; 4) Use electroplated copper instead of low-temperature silver paste
.

Third, the prospect of the industry

Silver-clad copper technology is expected to reduce the cost of low-temperature silver paste by 30%-50%, and the reliability has been proven
.
Among the various technical routes, silver-clad copper technology is expected to be the first to be applied
on a large scale in industrialization.
Silver-clad copper technology is to reduce the amount of silver by covering the surface of copper powder, and by adjusting the ratio of silver and copper, it can ensure the conversion efficiency while reducing the cost
of low-temperature silver paste by 30%-50%.

At present, major domestic photovoltaic silver paste manufacturers are promoting the industrial application
of silver-clad copper paste.
According to Global Photovoltaic, Japan's KE silver-clad copper paste (44% silver, 48% copper) has passed customer acceptance, and domestic silver-clad copper paste (60% silver, 30% copper) has made rapid progress, and the penetration rate is expected to begin to increase
in the third quarter.
Source: Global Photovoltaic Statement: This number is neutral to reprint, share, state and view, the purpose is only for industry communication, and the copyright belongs to the original author
.
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