Dalian soybean trend review and future market outlook (6.9)

OA show ('918 '); there is an old saying called "learn from the past and learn from the new" Before we analyze the soybean market in Dalian, I think it is necessary to review its historical trend From the annual line, Dalian soybean dropped all the way to June 1999 after reaching a new high of more than 3500 yuan per ton in 1996 Among them, the price of the September contract fell to 1738 yuan in the first half of 1999 after it hit 3749 yuan in 1996, down to 2011 point, down as much as 54%, which shocked the insiders Market interpretation to early June 1999, when the soybean price remained around 1800 yuan, the market sentiment is extremely low, and even some people will see the price below 1500 yuan The reasons are not only affected by two aspects: first, the domestic market is not well sold, and a large number of imported soybeans have landed, which leads to oversupply and the price is difficult to rise for a while Second, CBOT soybean trading also showed a downward trend, once falling to the level of 400 cents / bushel Let's take s005 contract as an example to analyze At the beginning of June 1999, the short volume of the contract was kept at about 80000, and the price fluctuation range was 1900-1850 The long short market started a saw battle here, and the market continued to turn around until the middle of July CBOT soybean across the ocean came "up" sound, the domestic soybean price also rose, the bull immediately began to pull up the action From the middle of July to the middle of August in 1999, Dalian soybean has gone out of a wave of sharp rising market The price of Dalian soybean has risen from 1840 yuan to 2200 yuan, up more than 360 points Nearly 100000 empty sheets are covered below 1900 yuan The bulls are playing triumphant songs all the way, while the bulls are in a passive situation, complaining incessantly During this period, the position of the contract has not been reduced When the price rose to 2200, the volume of short market began to surge, once reaching more than 210000 hands During the two-month adjustment period from August to October, the volume of short market remained high, and the period price fluctuated widely between 2150 and 2050 Finally, in late October, when the price of CBOT soybeans was not falling, the bears lost their confidence and began to close their positions on a large scale The price soared from near 2050 to 2250, and the positions were sharply reduced to 130000 The bears suffered a lot and the bears were out At the same time, the Bulls took advantage of the short positions to close their positions After that, CBOT soybean fell sharply Before Dalian soybean had time to breathe, it turned around and fell for four consecutive days Its price returned to around 2050 yuan The strength of the decline made the market unexpected, and the high-level pursuers had to bear the pain to cut their positions out This rise and fall, the killing power is very strong, the main operation of the ferocity can be seen After that, nearly two months of adjustment, the amount of empty disk decreased sharply to about 40000 hands With the gradual shrinkage of the position, the short position began the second round of cut, and the period price rose all the way, up to 2359 yuan Later, in the process of callback, the contract was close to delivery and withdrew from the main contract Let's look at the s009 contract again Its position structure is very similar to that of the s005 contract At the beginning of the new millennium, the main bulls of s009 launched an offensive, with the price soaring from around 2250 to 2495 There was no chance for the short bulls to breathe, but the short bulls did not abandon the market, but expanded their positions on a large scale, once reaching 190000 hands, an increase of 60000 hands over the previous year From February 22, 2000 to May 26, 2000, the contract went out of the adjustment market for nearly three months During this period, bulls showed more than 2500 signs of pull-up test, but failed because of short head block Judging from the structure of the Japanese K-line, the contract has formed a standard triangular consolidation feature during the adjustment for three months In terms of the whole soybean trend in Dalian, the market has deviated from the influence of CBOT soybean trend, and the specific performance is not following the rise The position is shrinking and the long run is obvious At this time, the trend of the contract is still uncertain until May 26 Influenced by the notice on Revising the "feed" annotation and strengthening the management of value-added tax collection and exemption for feed "issued by the State Administration of Taxation and the passing of PNTR, Dalian soybean fell in the whole line On May 29 and 30, Dalian soybean closed with a drop stop In the two days, Dalian soybean sold more than 600000 shares in total, and the market energy was released instantly, accompanied by large-scale reduction signs The three contracts of s009, S011 and S101 reduced 130000 positions in total, and the long side claimed compensation After the formation of the triangle fall breakthrough of the s009 contract, the author thinks that the rise of Dalian soybean in the past year has come to an end, and the s009 contract finally completed the third wave of the whole soybean up market and went down The above is a review of the trend of Dalian soybean in the past year Let's analyze the trend of soybean in the future from the perspective of technical analysis Let's take the s009 contract as an example In terms of the daily K-line combination form of the contract, it has gone through a wave of three standard waves: the first wave, from 1738 to 2140, about 400 points, or 23%; the second wave, from 2100 to 2400, about 300 points, or 14%; the third wave, from 2250 to 2495, about 250 points, or 11% In terms of the proportion of three waves, the growth rate has been gradually reduced, which has laid a fatal opportunity for the subsequent decline When making a triangle board, the stimulation of the two bad news accelerated its falling speed and time, so the falling breakthrough market on May 29 should be regarded as effective At the same time, with the reduction of the empty volume, the s009 contract will complete the mission of the main contract, and the interpretation of the future market will fall on the S101 contract It is not difficult to find a rule here: Dalian soybean as a bulk grain futures variety has its own particularity The particularity lies in the "continuity" of its technical analysis, that is, the unfinished trend of the same contract in a certain month will evolve in the following one month The market evolution of each month is not isolated, but plays a role of connecting the past and the future Therefore, we can see from the size of short offer that S101 contract, the main contract in the future, has quietly appeared First, we speculate the trend of the next wave from the s009 contract: from 1738 yuan up, the highest rose to 2495, a total of 757 points, up 44% If Dalian soybean rally ends, the contract's callback position should be around 2100, or even at least around 2030, which can be calculated by the golden section method Now we can see whether these two prices can be achieved in the s009 contract, I think it is relatively remote The reason is that the rise and fall cycle of soybean does not allow the contract to fall to this level By June, the contract will complete its mission and move towards delivery in three months The soybean price in the spot market is around 2300, and there is a 300 point drop space in just three months It seems unlikely, which forms a strong support for the contract So how will the futures price develop? According to the "continuity" theory of Dalian soybean trade, the price range of 2100-2030 is likely to be realized in S101 contract From the technical point of view, S101 contract inherited the whole soybean callback market has become a foregone conclusion The K-line structure of the contract day showed two waves of decline: the first wave fell to 2200 near 2400, a drop of 200 points; the second wave fell to 2150 near 2300, a drop of 150 points Therefore, the third wave target should be near 2050, just to achieve the decline target of s009 contract, but this does not exclude that the third wave of S101 contract appears in the form of adjustment Here, we can not but mention the influence of CBOT soybean on Dalian soybean With the gradual realization of global economic integration, the pace of China's accession to the WTO is approaching The trend of CBOT soybean has a subtle influence on the trend of Dalian soybean From a certain point of view, the trend of Dalian soybean has become a turning board of CBOT soybean trend, so the technical research on CBOT trend is particularly important In view of the above analysis, the author believes that Dalian soybean will inevitably enter a long period of adjustment after finishing the rising trend in the past year From the perspective of technical analysis, the falling space of all contract varieties after S101 contract will not be too large, at most around 100 points, and the target range is 2100-2050 To sum up, the future trend of Dalian soybean will be in the tone of consolidation and oscillation With the passage of time, the substantial change of fundamentals and the overall improvement of technology, Dalian soybean is bound to form a second round of upward market Therefore, it is suggested that investors can build positions in the long-term months, with the price range in the first line of 2100-2050 and the erosion stop in the first line of 2000 China feed industry information network SMC (author:)