Current situation and Prospect of feed and breeding industry

Introduction: first, the new situation faced by domestic feed and breeding industry this year, the occurrence of avian influenza and the state's announcement of the epidemic situation, have a significant impact on the consumption of poultry meat, egg products and poultry breeding industry The consumption and price of poultry meat and eggs have declined sharply Some cities even suspend the trade of live poultry The breeding industry has suffered a serious blow The number of poultry breeding has been greatly reduced The sale of poultry feed by feed enterprises has been blocked, which has brought a great impact on the domestic and foreign markets In line with the international standards, the implementation of the open and transparent epidemic situation has brought unprecedented difficulties to China's animal husbandry and feed industry This year, new changes have taken place in the production of grain as feedstuff, and grain production has entered a new production cycle China's grain production has declined for four consecutive years, from 512 million tons in 1998 to 430.6 million tons in 2003, a 15.7% drop Among them, the yield of corn was 114 million tons, reducing by 6%, compared with 132.95 million tons in 1998, a decrease of 14% This year, the whole grain (including corn) supply and demand Price Bureau has been formed, and the era of low-cost raw material supply has passed According to preliminary statistics, compared with the same period last year, the price of corn and soybean meal increased by about 26%, the price of fish meal increased by about 18%, and the cost of compound feed increased by about 20% The impact of raw material price trend on enterprises is increasing day by day 2 The growth of meat, eggs, milk and products determines the demand for feed Before 1979, the per capita meat consumption of Chinese residents was less than 10kg In 1987, the per capita meat consumption was 44.6kg, which has reached the highest income of urban residents At present, the per capita share of meat in the country is close to 50kg, and the average amount of livestock and poultry raised per household and their products in the country has also increased substantially It can be seen that the current meat production is relatively surplus, which exceeds the consumption demand of residents The development of eggs is similar to that of meat, and the growth rate is higher than that of meat In the 1980s, the average growth rate of poultry was 12.5%, reaching 13.3% in the 1990s; only because the per capita share was relatively low, the price of eggs did not decline as much as that of meat, but it was also saturated In the 1980s, the average per capita amount of eggs was only 4.6kg, but in the 1990s it reached 12.3kg, now it has exceeded 17kg, which can fully meet the current consumption level of residents The production of aquatic products is also accelerating The annual growth rate of aquatic products was 10.4% in the 1980s and 12.4% in the 1990s The growth of aquatic products production is more due to the increase of aquaculture and the improvement of productivity In the 1980s, the aquaculture area increased from 2.9853 million hectares to 6.1 million hectares From this point of view, the main task of animal husbandry development in a long period of time in the future is to develop from the main focus on output growth to the direction of high quality and efficiency, quality improvement and quantity growth Based on the above judgment on the development prospect of meat, egg, milk and aquatic products, the output and demand of feed aquaculture products in 2005 are predicted as follows: 1 The main problems existing in China's feed industry China's feed industry has a very glorious history It has completed the leap from manual workshop production to the second largest feed production country in the world in just 20 years, and has become one of the important pillar industries in China In 2003, the total output of feed products in China reached 87.81 million tons, including 64.06 million tons of compound feed, 20.46 million tons of concentrated feed and 3.29 million tons of additive premixed feed It is estimated that the total output value of feed industry will reach 21 billion yuan In recent years, feed enterprises have been over pursuing quantity expansion, engaging in price wars and credit sales wars, etc., ignoring reasonable operating profits, creating famous brand strategy and group scale operation, resulting in idle equipment resources, market chaos, quality degradation, fewer fist products, and enterprise operation like skating on thin ice The existing problems are as follows: (1) at present, there are more than 12000 feed enterprises in China with low industrial profit rate The average production capacity of each enterprise is only 76700 tons / year, and the average actual output of each enterprise is only 40000 tons / year The current situation of feed industry in the world is that the compound feed of about 3800 large feed enterprises accounts for 80% of the global total In 1997, 120-140 million tons of feed were produced, but there are only 3000 feed processing enterprises The average production scale of a single enterprise is about 4 million tons / year, a difference of 100 times Due to the low entry threshold of feed industry, the phenomenon of "big but not big" is very prominent in feed enterprises in China That is to say, the "big" enterprises have not obtained enough sales revenue proportion and market share In the fully developed feed market, the profitability of feed industry is declining in an all-round way, with a gap of about 4.5% between the net interest rate of 2-3% and the annual growth rate of national economy (2) as we all know, China is one of the largest aquaculture producers in the world, and also a big demand country for feed materials, especially protein materials Feed grain is mainly composed of corn raw materials, fish meal and various trace elements However, the proportion of protein and energy in feed is close to or more than 70%, which has a deep dependence on the international raw material market and inhibits the development of feed industry The shortage of feed materials will be a long-term structural contradiction How to solve the problem of feed materials will be the key to promote the development of aquaculture (3) the vulnerable feed industry in the industrial chain is an extremely important key link in the agricultural industrial chain, which is directly affected by the upstream and downstream industries If the price of feed raw materials in WTO is affected by the fluctuation of international market, it will be more obvious Especially in the second half of 2003 and the first half of this year, the soaring price of soybean meal and the huge losses caused by the avian influenza epidemic to feed enterprises made the industry understand what is the global economic integration, the relationship with the upstream oil processing and the relationship between the downstream poultry feeding volume reduction and the feed output plummeting Among them, the planting industry is vulnerable to climate change, international market and national policies, while the breeding industry is vulnerable to epidemic transmission and technical barriers, so the ability of the whole industry chain to resist risks is relatively weak (4) the self-discipline of the industry is unsatisfactory, and the quality of products and sanitation is low With the sharp increase of the average price of feed raw materials, the pressure of feed cost is correspondingly enlarged In order to seize the market share, various enterprises are fighting a price war However, the efforts of feed enterprises to reduce the cost through the use of new raw materials and new products have been repeatedly failed Feed enterprises only have to adjust the formula and try to reduce, in essence, the nutritional concentration of the products, resulting in the decline of feed product quality, The price is high ratio of material to meat and low survival rate With the development of society, the progress of science and technology, and the improvement of social economy and living standard, people put forward higher requirements for the nutrition and health quality of animal products However, the quality of feed is still worrying At present, in the production, management and use of feed, the problem of exceeding the standard of product documents and the phenomenon of illegal addition of drugs still exist The feed produced by many small enterprises can't guarantee the safety of livestock and poultry products for export, and can't control its indicators, and the enterprise standard is often low; in addition, some farms pursue their own breeding benefits unilaterally, and don't consider people's food safety at all, resulting in a large number of illegal drugs abusing in the feed and repeatedly prohibited, thus losing people's products for livestock and poultry The confidence of consumption will restrict the development of feed industry (5) extensive management and disorderly competition of feed industry are also one of the pillar industries in China, but they are not paid enough attention There are two main aspects: feed raw materials are the most important factors that affect the operation of feed enterprises, while the state's policy-making on food import rarely takes into account the impact on feed industry; the research on feed operation and management of the society is relatively few The former is very clear to all of you I will not say much I will mainly talk about the latter Because of the latter, feed enterprises play their own roles and sing their own tunes, almost closed or Sanda management, resulting in extensive and even backward management If an enterprise does not have standard and advanced management, how can it have good business results? The competition of feed enterprises is disordered I think it is mainly reflected in two aspects: on the one hand, the self-discipline of the industry mentioned above is unsatisfactory, and the hygiene quality of products is low; on the other hand, a large number of credit sales The sale on credit has become popular in feed industry It has become the simplest and most practical way for feed enterprises to seize customers Credit sale has played a positive role in promoting the rapid development of animal husbandry, but at present (technical guidance and technical services are seriously divorced), it further increases the burden of farmers - breeding risk and market risk, making breeding losses occur from time to time Why do farmers lose money but the price of livestock and poultry products does not go up? It can't be explained simply by supply over demand With the increase of rural unemployment and the decrease of employment opportunities, most of them have to choose breeding But there is no capital, no technology, only site and labor force At this time, the credit sale of feed factory gives them an opportunity There is not enough money or no money to breed! What about losing money? Keep it, because this feed factory or distributor no longer has credit, but other feeds or distributors can do so Why do we need to raise a large number of animals at a loss? Based on the above several ideas: first, what should we do if we don't raise them? Second, you may be able to earn it back; third, don't invest by yourself; fourth, if you don't raise it, those who need debt will be pressed If you still raise it, it will give the owner a hope, just like the worn-out equipment of state-owned enterprises If you sell it, the bank and you will not finish it, it will rot there by itself, which is hope! In fact, it's credit! [NextPage] (6) the major of technical talents has not been effectively brought into play Because of the low status of aquaculture and even agriculture in China, and the low treatment of aquaculture practitioners, a large number of aquaculture students are not willing to engage in aquaculture, but the aquaculture industry that really needs these professional and technical talents is not available It is difficult to apply learning because of the asymmetry between the national education supporting system and social employment In addition, due to the low profit of the industry, the unwillingness or lack of funds of feed and breeding industry to cooperate with scientific research institutions, it is difficult for scientific research achievements to be converted into productivity, which hinders the further development of the industry 3 The market trend of main bulk raw materials: "operating feed is operating raw materials" The cost of raw materials has occupied the vast majority of feed products, and the fluctuation of raw material price has a great impact on the operation of feed enterprises Therefore, it is necessary to talk about the raw material market when talking about feed industry Let me briefly talk about the situation of several main bulk raw materials Corn In 2004, China will basically open the grain purchase and sale market and price, the grain purchase and sale theme will be diversified, and the market competition will be more intense; the national unified action to limit vehicle overload and overrun will be carried out, the road transportation cost will increase substantially, and the railway transportation will be tense, which will make it more difficult for corn to be transported outside the production area, and the imbalance of the supply area will be further intensified; and with the feed, alcohol, starch and lysine With the increase of acid industry, the demand for grain is on the rise, and the price of grain is on the rise The consumption demand of soybean meal in China will still keep rising There is no doubt that China's soybean crushing capacity does not consider the price and demand