Current situation and future prospect of feed culture in 2004

Introduction: current situation and Prospect of feed and aquaculture development I: new situation of feed and aquaculture in China this year At the beginning of the new year, the Party Central Committee and the State Council issued the No.1 document on increasing farmers' income to solve the "three rural issues", creating favorable conditions and opportunities for the development of animal husbandry and material industry 2 The development of avian influenza epidemic since December 2003, more than ten countries and regions in Southeast Asia have successively suffered from avian influenza, which was first announced in China on January 27 within two months in 16 provincial administrative regions 51 In the case of avian influenza or suspected cases, the epidemic situation quickly spread The state took strong measures to control the epidemic in a short time In the near future, we have found another bird flu epidemic in some areas, and we will see how it develops The occurrence of avian influenza and the state's announcement of the epidemic situation have had a medium and large impact on the consumption of poultry meat, egg products, poultry breeding industry and feed industry The consumption and price of poultry meat and eggs have declined sharply Some cities even suspend the trade of live poultry The breeding industry has suffered a serious blow The number of poultry breeding has been greatly reduced The sale of poultry feed by feed enterprises has been blocked, which has brought a great impact on the domestic and foreign markets In line with the international standards, the implementation of the open and transparent epidemic situation has brought unprecedented difficulties to China's animal husbandry and feed industry Some consumers in some regions have a fear psychology and talk about bird color change Therefore, we hope that when the media disclose relevant information, it will give a positive report, guide people to face it rationally and calmly, and never exaggerate, causing personal danger 3 The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly This year, new changes have taken place in grain production as feed materials, and grain production has entered a new production cycle China's grain production has declined for four consecutive years, from 512 million tons in 1998 to 430.6 million tons in 2003, a 15.7% drop Among them, the yield of corn was 114 million tons, reducing by 6%, compared with 132.95 million tons in 1998, a decrease of 14% This year, the whole grain (including corn) supply and demand Price Bureau has been formed, and the era of low-cost raw material supply has passed According to preliminary statistics, compared with the same period last year, the price of corn and soybean meal increased by about 26%, the price of fish meal increased by about 18%, and the cost of compound feed increased by about 20% The impact of raw material price trend on enterprises is increasing day by day 4 The State implements macro-economic regulation and control The upstream enterprises of feed industry and some feed enterprises themselves are short of funds In addition, in May this year, the state implemented macro-economic regulation and control and tightened monetary policy to prevent overheated investment What's more, most feed enterprises expanded their market share A lot of credit sales make the economy difficult There is no way to grasp the opportunity profit of raw materials 5 Implementation of road traffic safety law June 1 Since then, the road safety law has been put into effect In particular, more efforts have been made to inspect and punish overloaded and out of gauge vehicles In addition, due to the shortage of international energy, the sales network of fuel oil price raising feed enterprises is mainly distributed in the suburbs and rural areas The production area is far away from the sales area Most of the products are transported by automobiles, and the transportation costs of raw materials and products are correspondingly increased, which leads to feed production The cost of products increased by 50 yuan / ton, the operation situation of feed industry is not optimistic     From the above five aspects, the feed industry in the first half of the year was mixed: the No.1 document of the Central Committee of the people's Republic of China was more favorable for the development of feed and animal husbandry industry: the occurrence of avian influenza, the breeding industry was severely damaged: the price of raw materials increased, the cost of feed products increased, and the profit of feed industry with low profit further decreased; the macro-control increased the investment cost of enterprises; the road traffic safety law The implementation of the system increases the transportation cost of enterprises 2 The current situation of feed and breeding industry 1 The market demand for feed products The growth of meat, eggs, milk and products determines the demand for feed Before 1979, the per capita meat consumption of Chinese residents was less than 10kg In 1987, the per capita meat consumption was 44.6kg, which has reached the highest income of urban residents At present, the per capita share of meat in the country is close to 50kg, and the average amount of livestock and poultry raised per household and their products in the country has also increased substantially It can be seen that the current meat production is relatively surplus, which exceeds the consumption demand of residents The development of eggs is similar to that of meat, and the growth rate is higher than that of meat In the 1980s, the average growth rate of poultry was 12.5%, reaching 13.3% in the 1990s; only because the per capita share was relatively low, the price of eggs did not decline as much as that of meat, but it was also saturated In the 1980s, the average per capita amount of eggs was only 4.6kg, but in the 1990s it reached 12.3kg, now it has exceeded 17kg, which can fully meet the current consumption level of residents The production of aquatic products is also accelerating The annual growth rate of aquatic products was 10.4% in the 1980s and 12.4% in the 1990s The growth of aquatic products production is more due to the increase of aquaculture and the improvement of productivity In the 1980s, the aquaculture area increased from 2.9853 million hectares to 6.1 million hectares From this point of view, the main task of animal husbandry development in a long period of time in the future is to develop from the main focus on output growth to the direction of high quality and efficiency, quality improvement and quantity growth Based on the above judgment on the development prospect of meat, egg, milk and aquatic products, the output and demand of feed aquaculture products in 2005 are predicted as follows: 2 The main problems existing in China's feed industry have a very glorious history In just 20 years, it has completed the leap from manual workshop production to the world's second largest feed production, and has become one of the important pillar industries in China In 2003, the total output of feed products in China reached 87.81 million tons, including 64.06 million tons of compound feed, 2046 of concentrated feed and 3.29 million tons of additive premixed feed It is estimated that the total output value of feed industry will reach 21 billion yuan In recent years, feed enterprises have been over pursuing quantity expansion, engaging in price wars and credit sales wars, etc., ignoring reasonable operating profit, creating famous brand strategy and group scale operation, resulting in idle equipment resources, market confusion, quality degradation, fewer fist products, and frequent thin ice business At present, there are more than 12000 feed enterprises in China The average production capacity of each enterprise is only 76700 tons / year, and the average actual output of each enterprise is only 40000 tons / year The current situation of feed in the world is that the compound feed of about 3800 large feed enterprises accounts for 80% of the global total In 1997, it did not produce 120-140 million tons of feed, but only 3000 feed processing enterprises, the average production scale of a single enterprise is about 4 million tons / year, a difference of 100 times Due to the low entry threshold of feed industry, the phenomenon of "big but not big" in feed enterprises in China is very prominent That is to say, the "big" enterprises have not obtained enough sales revenue proportion and market share In the fully developed feed market, the profitability of the feed industry is declining in an all-round way, with a gap of about 4.5% between the net interest rate of 2-3% and the annual growth rate of the national economy (2) as we all know, China is one of the largest aquaculture producers in the world, and also a big demand country for feed materials, especially protein materials Feed grain is mainly composed of corn raw material, fish meal and various elements However, the proportion of protein and energy in feed is close to or more than 70%, which has a deep dependence on the international raw material market and inhibits the development of feed industry The shortage of feed materials will be a long-term structural contradiction How to solve the problem of feed materials will be the key to promote the development of aquaculture (3) the industry chain is fragile Feed industry is an extremely important link in the agricultural industry chain, which is directly affected by upstream and downstream industries If the price of feed raw materials in WTO is affected by the fluctuation of international market, it will be more obvious In particular, in the second half of 2003 and the first half of this year, the soaring soybean meal price and the huge losses caused by the avian influenza epidemic to feed enterprises made the industry understand the relationship between the global economic integration, the relationship with upstream oil processing, and the relationship between the sudden reduction of feed production caused by the reduction of the amount of poultry raised by alumni Among them, the planting industry is vulnerable to climate change, international market and national policies, while the breeding industry is vulnerable to epidemic transmission and technical barriers, so the ability of the whole industry chain to resist risks is relatively weak (4) the self-discipline of the industry is unsatisfactory, and the quality of products and sanitation is low With the sharp increase of the average price of feed raw materials, the pressure of feed cost is correspondingly enlarged In order to seize the market share, various enterprises fight a price war However, feed enterprises attempt to use new raw materials and new products to reduce the low-cost efforts repeatedly Feed enterprises only adjust the formula, try to reduce the nutritional concentration of products, and cause the quality of feed products to decline, The price is high ratio of material to meat and low survival rate With the development of society, the progress of science and technology, and the improvement of social economy and living standard, people put forward higher requirements for the nutrition and health quality of animal products However, the quality of feed is still worrying At present, in the production, management and use of feed, the problem of exceeding the standard of product documents and the phenomenon of illegal addition of drugs still exist The feed produced by many small enterprises can not guarantee the safety of livestock and poultry products for export, and the industry can't control its indicators, and the enterprise standard is often low; in addition, some farms pursue their own breeding benefits unilaterally, and don't consider people's food safety at all, resulting in a large number of illegal drugs from the feed abuse and repeated prohibition, thus losing people's livestock and poultry products The confidence of consumption will restrict the development of feed industry (5) extensive management and disorderly competition in feed industry are also one of the pillar industries in China, but they are not paid enough attention to There are two main aspects: feed raw materials are the most important factors that affect the operation of feed enterprises, while the state's policy-making on food import is less and the impact on feed has to be taken into account; the society has to study the operation and management of feed, and the four elders have to have professional consultation and training rather less The former is very clear to all of you, so I will not talk much about the latter Because of the latter, feed enterprises play their own roles and sing their own tunes, almost closed or Sanda management, resulting in extensive and even backward management If an enterprise does not have standard and advanced management, how can it have good business results? In my opinion, the disordered competition of feed enterprises is mainly reflected in two aspects: on the one hand, the self-discipline of the industry mentioned above is unsatisfactory, and the hygiene quality of products is low; on the other hand, a large number of credit sales The sale on credit has become popular in feed industry It has become the simplest and most practical way for feed enterprises to seize customers Sell on credit