Current situation and development prospect of China's dairy industry

Introduction: the development level of dairy industry is an important indicator of the development level of animal husbandry and even the whole agriculture in a country Dairy industry is also a grain saving, efficient and highly related industry The sustainable and healthy development of dairy industry is of great significance to improve the dietary structure of urban and rural residents, improve the physical quality of the whole people, promote the adjustment of rural industrial structure, increase the income of farmers, and promote the development of related industries of national economy At the beginning of 2004, China Dairy Association organized domestic and foreign experts and scholars to conduct a one-year investigation and Study on the development strategy of China's dairy industry Here are some suggestions for the industry to consider 1 Since the reform and opening up, especially in recent years, China's dairy industry has developed rapidly and achieved remarkable results Dairy farming, dairy processing and market consumption have achieved rapid growth, showing a good situation of production and sales According to statistics, in 2004, there were 10.63 million dairy cows in China, an increase of 149% over 1998, an average annual growth of 16.4%; the total output of dairy products was 23.68 million tons, an increase of 217% over 1998, an average annual growth of 21.2%; the production of dry dairy products was 1.424 million tons, an increase of 159.4% over 1998, an average annual growth of 17.2%; the production of liquid milk was 8.067 million tons, an increase of 501.6% over 2000, an average annual growth of 56.6% In 2004, China's per capita milk share was 18.4kg, of which the per capita milk share was 17.3kg, an increase of 208.2% and 225.8% compared with 1998, with an average annual growth of 20.64% and 21.76% respectively However, there are also some problems and new situations in the development of China's dairy industry The main problems are as follows: (1) dairy farming is still in the situation of "small, scattered and low" "Small" refers to the small scale of cow raising, with an average raising scale of about 5 cows; "scattered" refers to the fact that cow raising is distributed in thousands of households, with people and cattle living together, very scattered; "low" refers to the low level of production There are four main problems in China's dairy farming: first, the number of improved dairy breeds is insufficient, and the level of per unit yield is low Among the 10.63 million cows in China, less than 1 / 3 of Holstein cows are really good breeds, with a total number of about 3 million, while the coverage rate of good breeds in developed countries is close to 100% The average yield per unit of adult cow in China is 3500kg, while that in the United States, Israel and other countries is more than 8500Kg, and that in Sweden, Denmark, France, Japan and other countries is more than 6500kg There are a lot of cows raised in the agricultural and pastoral areas, which are crossbred and improved by Holstein and local cows in China For many years, there is no systematic breeding of these breeds for the purpose of milk use Second, the development of cow feed is insufficient and the level of feeding management is low The research and development of cow feed in China is late, which can not meet the needs of the development of dairy industry High quality forage and feed crops are very scarce The supply and marketing of energy feed is increasingly tense, and the raw materials of protein feed are also scarce At the same time, due to long-term overuse and serious degradation and desertification of natural grassland, most of the grassland has been in an urgent need to reduce the intensity of utilization The production structure of feed industry is also unreasonable The special feed for dairy cattle only accounts for about 4% of the total industrial feed output, while the proportion of developed countries in Europe and America can reach more than 30% Most of the dairy farmers adopt low-level extensive feeding, the diet structure is unreasonable, and lack of high-quality forage and feed The incidence rate of nutritional metabolism diseases of dairy cattle is high and the production level is low Scientific and applicable cow management methods, such as stage feeding, mechanical milking, TMR total mixed ration technology, regular epidemic prevention and quarantine, have not been fully implemented The third is the environmental pollution caused by the production of dairy cows At present, China's dairy farming is still based on the scattered farming of farmers, accounting for about 70% of the total number of livestock in the country Most of the cows are raised in front of the houses and behind the houses The cowshed is simple and the sanitary conditions are poor Generally, there is no special fecal sewage treatment facilities, which causes serious environmental pollution According to the measurement, an adult dairy cow with a body weight of 500-600kg has a daily defecation capacity of 30-50kg and a urine capacity of 15-25kg Due to the lack of effective measures to prevent and control fecal pollution, the surrounding air and water environment are polluted Four, the quality of raw milk is outstanding, and the quality and safety inspection system is not perfect Due to the poor quality of dairy germplasm and feed, the nutritional value of raw milk is not high In China, more than 80% of the individual households still use manual milking, which results in poor hygienic conditions of raw milk production, high quantity of bacteria and more impurities China's national standard for the total number of bacteria and somatic cells in raw milk is far lower than the level of developed countries At the same time, the quality standards of raw milk and milk products in different regions are different, and there is a lack of national unified technical standards and supporting testing technology The quality standards and hygiene standards of raw milk and milk products that have been issued involve few indexes and backward detection methods, which can not meet the requirements of food safety in the new era (2) the growth of dairy market consumption slowed down The per capita dairy consumption expenditure of urban residents increased by 30.85% in 2002, 19.03% in 2003 and 6.15% in 2004 The range of dairy consumers in China is small, and the main consumers are mainly some urban residents and special groups in rural areas Dairy consumers have great limitations, and the consumption pattern of commodity dairy products has not been formed in rural areas The consumption structure of dairy products in China is single, and the consumption demand is still at a lower level The consumption of rural residents is mainly milk powder, while that of urban residents is mainly liquid milk Restricted by income level, consumption of high concentrated dairy products such as cream, butter and cheese is very small On the whole, most of the residents in our country are still lack of understanding of dairy products, and know little about the nutritional value of dairy products (3) the profit of dairy processing enterprises declined Due to the slow growth of dairy consumption, disordered market competition and mutual bargaining, the price of raw materials increased significantly, resulting in the reduction of the actual sales price of dairy products In 2004, compared with 2003, sugar increased by 30%, packaging materials of finished products increased by 55%, and the prices of water, electricity and coal also continued to rise, resulting in the decline of corporate profits and the expansion of loss area In 2002, 24.2%, in 2003, 27.5% and in 2004, 30.8% of the dairy enterprises above Designated Size lost money The growth rate of total profits and taxes of dairy enterprises decreased, 18 percentage points lower than that of 2003 in 2004 (IV) greatly impacted by imported dairy products Since 2000, the import of dairy products in China has increased year by year In 2004, the import of dry dairy products reached 343600 tons, with an average annual growth of 14.3%, including 145000 tons of milk powder, with an average annual growth of 18.8%; 12400 tons of cream, with an average annual growth of 41.5%; and 7200 tons of cheese, with an average annual growth of 38.5% The import of dry dairy products has accounted for 1 / 4 of China's total production, and the milk powder accounts for 1 / 5 of China's domestic production Only according to the current milk powder import, it is equal to 1.2 million tons of substitute domestic raw milk, which is equivalent to the total production of more than 60000 dairy farmers Milk industry is the most conservative, protective and closed industry in the world The average tariff of milk in the world is about 100%, and that in Europe is 200% 150% in the United States and Canada, and 75% in Brazil and South America After China's accession to the WTO, the tariff has been reduced to 15% for fresh milk and 10% for milk powder China's milk industry has lost its protection in tariff                   　　 The development of China's dairy industry is in a critical stage In this critical stage, opportunities and challenges coexist, and hopes and difficulties coexist It will promote the dairy industry to change from leaping growth to gradual growth, from unconventional development to normal development, from speed type to quality and efficiency type, from extensive type to intensive type, so that China's dairy industry can continue to grow On the contrary, it may linger or even slide Two, the development prospects of China 's dairy industry in the new period in the future, China' s dairy industry development not only has great demand, but also has great potential and broad development prospects - with the growth of GDP per capita, milk consumption will continue to increase The recent research on the development strategy of China's dairy industry shows that the improvement of per capita dairy consumption is closely related to the growth of per capita GDP, with a correlation coefficient of 0.935 (the maximum correlation coefficient is 1) This shows that the rapid growth of China's milk consumption is consistent with the rapid growth of the national economy The research shows that in the next 20 years, if the annual growth rate of China's GDP is kept at about 7%, the total GDP will reach 4 trillion US dollars, and the sustained growth of GDP will further promote the consumption of milk Experts estimate that the annual growth of China's milk consumption will be about 6% by 2020 In addition, for every 1% increase in residents' income, dairy consumption of urban residents will increase by 0.67% and that of rural residents by 0.27% Therefore, with the development of national economy and the improvement of income level of urban and rural residents, milk consumption will increase significantly [NextPage] - China's dairy industry has broad market demand China is the most populous country in the world, and also a country with a low level of milk drinking In 2004, China's per capita milk share was only 18.4kg, less than 1 / 5 of the world average level, 1 / 2 of the Asian average level, and milk share ranked after 100 in the world If by 2020, the per capita milk share of China will reach the current average 40 kg level in Asia, and the total milk output will exceed 50 million tons, which can be ranked the third in the world, next to India and the United States, and step into the ranks of the world's largest dairy industry The dairy industry can rise to be a large industry in a short period of time The development history of dairy industry in many countries in the world has proved that dairy industry can expand rapidly in a short period of time and become the pillar industry of national economy India is an outstanding example In the past, the dairy industry in India was underdeveloped Since 1970, the government launched the "white revolution", taking the development of dairy industry as a pillar industry related to the national economy and the people's livelihood and the poverty alleviation industry on which farmers depend for employment Under the direct leadership of the prime minister, the national dairy industry development committee was established to give strong support to the development of dairy industry, making the development of the national dairy industry into a fast lane The milk output has been from 1970 27.22 million tons soared to 90 million tons, becoming the world's largest dairy production country, with the per capita milk share reaching the world average India's dairy industry has the advantage of developing tropical dairy buffalo, while China has not only the advantage of developing tropical dairy buffalo, but also the advantage of developing temperate dairy cattle It also has a good foundation in the aspects of good breed breeding, feed resources, feeding management, disease control and so on As long as we keep up with each other, it is possible for China's milk per capita to reach the Asian average level after several years of efforts III countermeasures and suggestions for the development of dairy industry (I) strengthen the construction of milk source base, consolidate the foundation of dairy industry development, and actively change the breeding party in dairy industry