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A health worker vaccinates a man against COVID-19 in India
.
According to a mathematical model1 that combines data from 152 countries, more than 1 million lives
could be saved if COVID-19 vaccines were shared more equitably with low-income countries in 2021.
The impact of vaccine sharing will be greater
if, while more vaccines are distributed to poorer countries, other mitigation measures, such as limiting gatherings and wearing masks, are implemented for longer.
Models show that up to 3.
8 million lives could be saved
in this scenario.
It is widely believed that unfair vaccine distribution leads to unnecessary loss
of life.
But Oliver Watson, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Imperial College London, says estimating the scale of this loss can help us plan
for future epidemics.
"This is another piece of evidence of how big an impact
the push for vaccine coverage could have," he said.
This is important
for galvanizing political will and making major political decisions.
”
By the end of last year, nearly half of the world's population had received two doses of COVID-19 vaccine
.
But these vaccines are not distributed equitably: 75% in high-income countries, but less than 2%
in some low-income countries.
Rich countries ended the year with vaccine surpluses and plan to vaccinate
young children at relatively low risk of severe disease.
At the same time, many poorer countries still do not have enough vaccine supplies to vaccinate
those most at risk of dying from COVID-19.
Sam Moore, a mathematical epidemiologist at the University of Warwick in Coventry, UK, and his colleagues used data on over-mortality and vaccine availability to simulate what would happen
if vaccines were distributed based on demand rather than wealth.
They considered the impact of
vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 severity.
The team found that fairer vaccine coverage could have averted 1.
3 million deaths globally had it been had other policies to reduce physical contact (see "The brutal cost of vaccine inequality").
If high-income countries had insisted on other measures to reduce transmission, more than twice as many deaths
could have been avoided.
The findings were published October 27 in
the journal Nature Medicine.
The study only looked at vaccine availability and did not take into account other factors such as storage and vaccination capacity
.
This result fits well with a previous study by Watson and colleagues, which used similar modeling techniques but with different data
.
The study found that about 45% of COVID-19 deaths in low-income countries could be avoided if they met the 20% vaccination coverage target set by COVAX2 by the end of 2021
.
Moore said a fairer sharing of vaccines and the resulting decline in infection rates may also have slowed the emergence
of new SARS-CoV-2 variants.
Policymakers can refer to such research to lay the groundwork for a better response to the
next pandemic.
Moore said that while it may be unrealistic to expect countries to distribute vaccine supplies before they vaccinate their citizens, governments may be able to find a middle ground
.
"First world countries should vaccinate all people over the age of 60 to protect the most vulnerable before
helping other countries catch up," he said.
Even if it's not fair, once you manage to get your own vaccine to some extent, maybe there's some kind of room to
help other countries.
”
