Corn: These points are important!

In recent years, the area and yield of corn cultivation in Northeast China have been reduced.
according to the relevant information published by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the total planting area of corn in Northeast China is expected to decrease by 50 million mu and the soybean planting area to increase by 40 million mu.
2020, the state will continue to encourage farmers to switch to soybeans, policy subsidies also tend to grow soybeans, corn cultivation area has declined to varying degrees.
regions, the area under cultivation in Heilongjiang decreased by 11.5% YoY, in Inner Mongolia by 1%, in Jilin by 2% and in Liaoning by 2%.
, the total area of corn cultivation in Northeast China decreased by 7.2 million tons, and the total corn production decreased by 3.6 million tons according to the corn yield.
, according to the trade companies surveyed, next year the corn supply gap in 40 million to 50 million tons.
on the other hand, domestic wheat reserve auction volume may be more than 10 million tons level, imported grain and auction grain can make up the gap in domestic corn supply, it is expected that in February next year, the overall domestic corn supply is not lacking.
Affected by the typhoon weather, the northeast production area appeared a certain degree of production reduction, and the central market time delayed by about 20 days, but this year the price of corn is higher, the grass-roots farmers recognition is high, farmers sell grain enthusiasm is significantly better than in previous years.
As of November 10, 11 major producing regions, including Heilongjiang and Shandong, had acquired 15.73 million tons of corn, an increase of 7.68 million tons over the same period last year, with a weekly acquisition volume of about 5 million tons, faster than the annual level.
this year, grass-roots corn sales progress faster than in previous years, but traders and downstream feed enterprises have repeatedly reported that the new grain toxin generally exceeded the standard, which is related to the northeast production areas suffered from typhoons and rainstorms.
feed enterprises reflect that piglets, sows eat new food feed, pigs frequently vomit, thinning and other phenomena.
high corn toxin will lead to damage to pig liver, reproductive system, and even affect pig fattening, breeding.
, feed, trade enterprises began to increase the toxin detection of new grains, while feed enterprises have snapped up high-quality corn, so that high-quality corn premium is obvious.
The price of corn is highly transparent This year, affected by the higher prices of domestic corn, the demand for domestic corn in the southern corn marketing area continues to weaken, especially in Guangdong, Guangxi and other southern regions pig production capacity has not yet fully recovered, poultry breeding profits turned a loss in the background.
Due to fierce competition in the market, feed enterprises raise prices less than the increase in raw corn prices, end-enterprises face the double pressure of rising raw material costs and reduced sales profits, farming enterprises to reduce the intention to take goods.
in the course of the investigation, market participants in the port area said that it is now an information society, corn prices are highly transparent, the boundaries of production and marketing areas blurred.
, traders used the advantages of information to "buy back" the traditional arbitrage business model has been gradually eliminated by the market.
With the gradual release of deep processing capacity of corn in Northeast China, the expansion of production in pig farming industry, the increase in corn consumption, the Northeast region gradually formed an integrated closed-loop mode of self-production and self-marketing, and the ability to consume corn in place continued to improve.
The northeast corn production in 2020 is about 90 million tons, if according to the local deep processing capacity and breeding column, the consumption of corn in the northeast region is about 50 million tons, the outflow of trade decreased to 40 million tons, from the corn outflow area to the integrated market development of production and marketing.
southern feed enterprises to purchase domestic trade corn is facing greater challenges, head feed enterprises or aquaculture enterprises actively purchase import quota corn, raw materials construction cycle moved back, or directly in the Northeast corn production area to establish stocks.
, however, in the current North-South port corn prices continue to hang upside down against the background, the north-south grain shipments may continue to shrink, resulting in the North-South port inventory trend seriously divided.
data show that northern port inventories continue to recover, southern port inventories remain low.
as of November 30, inventory in northern ports continued to recover to 4.32 million tons, an increase of 4.12% month-on-month and 91.28% year-on-year; North grain and south transport increased, inventory rebounded to 690,000 tons, an increase of 5.34% month-on-month, southern inventory is still at a historically low position.
the survey of a port enterprises in the current year, the volume of domestic trade transit slightly declined, and the port inventory is higher than in previous years.
the port annual shipment of 1.6 million tons of corn, domestic trade-oriented; 4 million tons of imported soybeans, 90% of last year's imports of soybeans from Brazil, this year's U.S. soybean transport volume significantly increased compared to last year; 600,000 tons of barley, mainly from Australia, France and Canada.
, although China has initiated a "double-payer" tax increase on Australian barley, overall imports remain relatively stable.
currently, the port's corn and soybean stocks are between 200,000 and 300,000 tons, a slight increase from last year.
the advantages of imported goods obviously with the domestic corn prices continue to strengthen, the price advantage of imported corn more and more obvious.
than the theoretical tax price of imported corn to the United States and the price of corn in the southern port of China, we can see that the spread between the two has widened to an all-time high, the maximum spread exceeded 500 yuan / ton, in October-November there are still 300-400 yuan / ton.
domestic and foreign corn price differentials, traders import profits better driven by a large number of domestic enterprises to purchase foreign corn.
customs data show that from January to October, a total of 7.82 million tons of corn were imported, exceeding the import tariff quota of 7.2 million tons.
market expects China's corn imports this year will be about 10 million tons of the level, next year imports will continue to increase.
, the USDA forecasts that China's corn imports will increase to 13 million tons in 2020/2021; The International Grains Council has increased its forecast for China's corn imports to 16m tonnes, up from an earlier forecast of 8m tonnes.
Goldman Sachs expects China's total corn imports to rise to 33m tonnes in 2021 and up to 55m tonnes by 2023.
addition to corn imports breaking through the import quota line, imports of sorghum, wheat, DDGS and barley all showed double-digit increases.
, China imported 20.91 million tons of corn and substitutes from January to October, an increase of 8.39 million tons, or 67%, year-on-year, according to customs data.
, 7.82 million tons of corn, 4.02 million tons of sorghum, 5.98 million tons of barley, 2.96 million tons of cassava, corn wine (DDGS) 134,000 tons.
corn, sorghum and barley will be expected to come in the coming months, and stocks at southern ports will remain high.
china's corn supply gap may continue to expand in the future, domestic corn will appear in short supply pattern, in order to make up for the corn supply gap, will inevitably expand the import of corn or substitutes.
the steady recovery of pig production capacity, a number of traders and feed enterprises reported that the northeast pig production capacity exceeded expectations.
Due to the early onset of swine fever in northeast China, and enterprises and governments have taken multiple means to prevent and control, overlay head enterprises in the northeast region to lay out new production capacity, the northeast pig storage column recovery significantly accelerated, the overall production capacity recovery faster than the south, some areas have been restored to the pre-epidemic storage capacity of 89 percent, pig production capacity is expected to return to the pre-epidemic level in the first half of next year.
the recovery of pig storage in southern China is not optimistic.
On the one hand, the late onset of swine fever in southern China, coupled with policy restrictions on cross-regional transport, rising feed prices, and the lack of funds for retail investors, guangdong and Guangxi pig re-breeding less than expected.
it is understood that the current production of pig feed in southern China has returned to 56% before the outbreak, pig stock has rebounded to about 60%, pig stock is expected to return to the pre-epidemic level of 78% next year.
research process, a number of enterprises believe that the proportion of large-scale pig breeding in China will be greatly increased, industry concentration will be closer to the head of enterprises.
main reason is that head-breeding enterprises have capital, breeding costs, industrial chain management, manpower, land and other advantages, and the government has policy support for large-scale enterprises, banks are willing to provide financial support to enterprises.
From the report of listed companies, it can be seen that in the first three quarters of the domestic pig breeding top 10 enterprises, a total of 36 million head, accounting for about 10% of the national column, compared with 1.18% in 2011, a significant increase of nearly 10 times.
expects the share of bulk breeding to shrink further in the future.
affected by the outbreak, overseas demand for medical protection materials increased significantly, and global orders returned to domestic factories.
coastal enterprises said that the current overseas orders scheduled to the second and third quarters of next year, enterprises started almost full load.
data show that the average monthly operating rate of the corn starch industry in November was 70.75 percent, up 4.67 percentage points from the previous month and 1.04 percentage points from the previous month.
corn ethanol, edible and industrial ethanol production in November was 550.3 million tons, an increase of 0.90% over the previous month; Ethanol operating load was 43.09 percent, up 0.56 percentage points from the previous month.
supply gap is expected to make up for the research results, the domestic corn market from oversupply to tight balance between supply and demand, northeast corn production fell slightly.
Against the background of the rigid recovery of livestock and poultry production capacity and the release of deep processing capacity, the domestic corn supply gap may widen to about 50 million tons next year, but given the import of corn and substitutes, as well as wheat and rice storage and other regulatory measures, the market has ample alternatives to fill the corn supply gap.
, corn prices "oversized" part has been out of the fundamental support.
from the research situation, this year's third-party platform funds into the market significantly higher than the annual level.
November, the average daily turnover of corn and the average daily position volume were 1.23 million and 2.17 million, respectively, an increase of 245% and 84% over the beginning of the year, and an increase of 152% and 94% respectively over the same period last year.
addition to traditional financing channels, third-party platform funds increased significantly.
It is understood that this year's corn acquisition of a large number of procurement "third-party capital pallet" model, large trading enterprises or ports to use their own warehouse resources and capital advantages for small and medium-sized enterprises to provide "collection and storage", generally charge customers deposit margin and charges for a total of about 50 yuan / ton, and provide 90% of the purchase amount of financing loans, interest at 6.5%-7%.
, financing platforms use their own logistics, warehousing and other advantages to provide customers with more value-added services.
, the national average price of corn acquisition is 2600 yuan / ton, up 2.8% month-on-month, up 35.2% year-on-year.
to Jinzhou Port as an example, in early December, Jinzhou Port corn new grain mainstream purchase price of 2600 yuan / ton, compared with the same period last year 1830-1840 yuan / ton.
domestic corn spot prices in recent years high, futures prices have also hit a record high.
at present, Liaoning, Jilin and other places at the grass-roots surplus in about 70%.
From the previous year's sales progress, this year's corn prices are better, farmers' approval of the purchase price is higher, and before the Spring Festival farmers have cash repayment demand, farmers' enthusiasm for sales is higher than in previous years, it is expected that this year's grass-roots corn sales window will be shortened, short-term corn may be concentrated in the market.
, the increase in the amount of auction corn and substitutes that had not been available in the previous period will also ease supply constraints.
, on the other hand, imported corn and substitutes still have a price advantage, and the concentration of imported grain in the later period will also increase market supply.
from the demand side analysis, as corn prices continue to rise, downstream enterprises operating costs rise, profits narrowed significantly.
in addition to pig farming industry, other poultry farming and deep processing industry is generally in a break-even situation or even loss.
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