Corn prices will continue to rise in July in China

Introduction: in June, China's corn price continued to rise steadily Corn prices generally rose about 20 yuan / ton in both production and sales areas The market transaction is active, with the average delivery price of vehicle plate in Jilin Province rising to 960 yuan / ton, the closing price of Dalian port to 1040 yuan / ton, and the corn transaction price in North China, Huanghuai and southern main sales areas also rising synchronously with the rise of production areas Analysis of the reasons for its rise, the author believes that in July, the price rise of corn is still the main tone of market development The reasons are as follows: 1 Export: China's policies to encourage export have achieved initial results this year At the beginning of the year, it is estimated that the export target of Jilin Province is 3 million tons of corn, while the cumulative export of Jilin Province is 2.05 million tons of corn from January to may, and the completion of the export task for the whole year is just around the corner At the same time, from the perspective of export situation, Jilin Province and other major export provinces will overfulfil this year's export tasks Some analysts predict that under the concern of policy factors, the export volume this year is likely to reach more than 7 million tons, and the future of corn export this year is bright The increase in exports will support the price of corn 2 Import: "here comes the wolf!" It has been six months since the call of the Chinese government The imported corn still hasn't entered the Chinese market, while the price of corn in the domestic market has been running at a low level Even if we start to import corn now, it is impossible to reach the quantity of 5.85 million tons After all, half a year has passed Moreover, in the first half of this year, the price of corn in China's southern market has not been high In May, the estimated price of imported corn to China's port was about 1150 yuan / ton, which is not much different from the transaction price of domestic corn in southern China It is not profitable for importers or grain consuming enterprises 3 Export of local reserve corn: this year, the state has arranged a total of 14525000 tons of local reserve corn export plans in Jilin, Longjiang, Inner Mongolia and Hebei provinces The increase of export tasks will surely promote the increase of corn prices in these regions 4 Flood disaster: Recently, Shaanxi, Chongqing, Hubei, Guizhou and other places suffered from flood disaster According to the preliminary statistics as of June 12, the affected area of crops is 3.565 million hectares, and the affected area is 2.576 million hectares More than 30 million people in Shaanxi, Sichuan, Hubei, Chongqing and Guizhou provinces (cities) were affected by the flood disaster It is reported that from June 5 to 13, 12 cities and prefectures in Sichuan Province were hit by rainstorms, which will cause 2.2 billion yuan of direct economic losses to Sichuan Province, including more than 1.4 billion yuan of direct agricultural losses These areas are the main corn sales areas In recent years, some feed processing enterprises generally adopt the production and management mode of zero stock or a small amount of stock Therefore, after the disaster, these enterprises are bound to increase the purchase quantity for production, resulting in the increase of corn price In addition, due to the arrival of the rainy season, corn transportation will also be affected, resulting in shipping difficulties According to the China Meteorological Administration, from June 17 to 19, there was a precipitation process in the north, the east of northwest, the west of North China and the Huanghuai area Relevant departments are closely monitoring the development of relevant meteorological factors 5 Locust infestation: since June, there have been large-scale locust disasters in 14 provinces and cities, such as Shandong and Hebei, with an area of 10% larger than that of the same period last year Recently, the Ministry of agriculture has urgently organized a unified extermination of locusts all over the country As of June 10, the area of summer locust in 8 locust areas of Shandong Province has reached the control index of 4.6824 million mu, and the locust has entered the peak period of harm Because of the locust disaster, the corn production in the Central Plains of China will be affected, and the reduction of production is inevitable 6 Reduction of summer grain production: due to the harvest season of summer grain and more rain, flood disaster has occurred in some major provinces of summer grain production, which is bound to affect the output of this year's summer grain According to the situation of the major wheat producing provinces, the drought during wheat planting in Henan Province is relatively serious this year, and affected by the recent low temperature, overcast and rainy weather, it is estimated that the decline of total yield will be greater than the decline of area; the area and yield of wheat in Shandong Province are declining this year, with an area of about 51 million mu and a total yield of about 15.9 million tons; the area of wheat planting in Anhui Province is slightly increased this year, However, affected by climate factors, the yield decreased, and the wheat area and yield also decreased in Jiangsu Province As wheat can be partly used to replace corn, the reduction of wheat production will have an impact on corn To sum up, in July, corn price rise is the main tone It is expected that corn prices will rise rapidly in July and August The price of corn car board in Jilin Province, the production area, is expected to break the 1000 yuan mark, and the sales area will rise synchronously (Qu Xiaofeng, wholesale market of Jilin grain center) (author:) share to feed micro blog and share to: