Corn prices are likely to stabilize and slow rise in the first half of next year

Introduction: new page 1 Xinhua news agency, Beijing, Nov 15 - domestic corn has been falling all the way since the end of the rebound in July this year At present, the bearish atmosphere in the market is still strong In addition, recently, the country began to carry out large-scale auction of stale grain, and the listing volume of new corn gradually increased Coupled with the impact of the psychological expectation of China's accession to the WTO, there is no sign that the domestic corn price has stopped falling recently According to the analysis from the perspective of supply and demand, the industry insiders believe that the corn price may stop falling and recover slowly in the first half of next year after stabilizing From November of this year to February March of 2002, as the price of corn will decline as a whole, feed production and deep processing enterprises will slow down the purchase progress and reduce the stock of raw materials as a whole, which just determines that once the drying up period occurs in advance, the price of corn will rise as a whole due to the obvious change of supply and demand In normal years, as the North China and Huang Huai regions with large quantity of self-sale and export transportation, the real-estate corn can be supplied to march to April of the next year Since then, the supply capacity of corn in the region will be significantly reduced, not only the export activities will be basically stopped, but also the corn needed in the Guannei region will be purchased from the northeast region, at this time, the price of corn in the region will rise From this point of view, the region with the largest corn consumption and the highest degree of marketization in Guannei should be the region with the earliest corn price recovery and the most obvious rebound When the corn drying up period occurs in the Huang Huai Region of North China, the price will not rise immediately in South China because of the large amount of corn transported to the region before this period and the short-term market supply will still be relatively sufficient At this time, the southern corn supply will mainly come from Guannei area After the dry up period, the corn export volume in Northeast China can not be increased immediately, so the corn stock in ports and stations in South China will be reduced soon, and the corn price will start to rise in response to the shortage of follow-up supply within 3-4 weeks The specific time for this situation is about March to April 2002 When the price of corn in East China and South China rises, although the peak of corn purchase in Northeast China is basically over, due to the high water content of corn, drying and drying of tide grain will become the focus of the work of the Northeast grain department at this time, and it is still difficult to see a significant increase in the number of outward shipments, so the price of corn in South China will rebound as a whole After the overall rebound of corn prices in Guannei and South China, the market prices in Northeast China will finally rebound It is expected that during April to May of 2002, the quantity of corn exported from Northeast China will begin to increase Under the situation that the price of corn in Inner Shaanxi and southern China has generally increased, the price of corn exported from Northeast China and the price of closing positions in ports will rise accordingly Generally speaking, although the price recovery of corn in Northeast China may occur at the latest among the three major production and marketing regions, only when the price of corn in Northeast China rises, will the price of corn in Inner Shaanxi and southern China finally rise, thus completing the whole process of price recovery in the first half of the year.