Corn market will continue to grow steadily

Introduction: the supply and demand pattern of corn in China: Recently, the price of corn in China has rebounded The transaction price of corn car board in Jilin is 980 yuan / ton, basically the same as last week; the transaction price of corn car board in Heilongjiang is 970 yuan / ton, about 30 yuan higher than last week Corn prices in southern ports have also increased: the delivery price of small boat corn in Huangpu port, Guangdong Province is 1120-1130 yuan / ton, and that in Shekou port is 1130-1140 yuan / ton Analysis of various factors, the corn market after a long period of decline and stability, later will still steadily go higher, the analysis is as follows: LCW 1, seasonal prices rise back In March, the market supply quantity of corn in Central Plains region was due to the large-scale export transportation before the festival At this time, the inventory of large-scale storage enterprises in various regions was insufficient, and it was difficult to form a scale of export volume in the later period The consumption in domestic sales areas will be mainly northeast corn This year, northeast purchased a large number of new corn, but the existing market price is difficult to sell at a price The supply scope and quantity of Central Plains corn are shrinking Small, which provides the basis for the price rise of corn in Northeast China, and also creates conditions for the price rise of the whole corn market in China 2 The enterprise's reluctance to sell Due to the rise of seasonal corn prices, the northeast corn sales will become the mainstream, and it is difficult for enterprises to change their mentality of reluctant to sell Moreover, the three northeastern provinces have put nearly 20 million tons of new corn into storage this year, which reduced the corn supply in the later period and pushed the price higher 3 Inventory of grain consuming enterprises From the current situation, the stock of feed enterprises can meet the needs of 10-15 days of production With the passage of time, the stock quantity will gradually decline, the purchase intention will gradually become obvious, and the approaching of the purchase peak will play a positive role in the later stage of corn market rise 4 The state should further expand the scale of the central grain reserve In this year, we will complete the construction of the state treasury We will gradually increase the size of the central reserve grain to 75 billion kg by building new warehouses to hold new grain and purchasing grain directly in the production areas, so as to ensure that the state has sufficient resources for grain regulation and control The national grain reserve index of 13.5 billion kg in 2001 has been issued In a certain sense, the increase of National Grain Reserve will inevitably stimulate the demand for grain Lcw5 The international price is calculated based on the quotation of US $115 / T + 1% tariff and 1% agency fee of yellow corn No 2 to Guangdong port The actual arrival price is 964 yuan / T The total amount is 1054 yuan / ton, plus 90 yuan of port charges If 13% VAT is levied, the price is 1180 yuan / ton At present, the average ex warehouse price of corn in Jilin is 940 yuan / ton, and the price of corn transported to Guangdong port is 1130 yuan / ton Considering the quality difference (about 50 yuan / ton), the price of domestic corn is basically the same as that of imported corn But the profit and risk of the importer are not considered here It is said that the country will use the import of corn to increase the country's reserves, so the imported corn will not have a negative impact on the market in the first half of the year Lcw6 In terms of corn export, the Chinese government will consider various ways to continue to export corn on the premise of not violating the provisions of WTO, among which Inner Mongolia plans to export 1.5 million tons this year, while the country's export volume has reached 230000 tons in January and 770000 tons in February The start of export market will warm the corn market LCW willow is also young and cold, the grass without trace is suspected to be winter At present, the market is in a relatively calm stage, but in the first half of the year, the domestic corn price is expected to rise steadily LCW LCW this paper is provided by Liu Wenjun, Information Department of Dalian North Grain Exchange Market