Corn market outlook in the second half of the year

Introduction: in the later stage, the main factors affecting the price of corn market are as follows: (1) the influence of sales policy on the market: due to the large quantity and low quality of inventory in the main grain producing areas, there are a large number of aged, aged and state stored grains that need to be handled, sold and rotated From the beginning of the year to now, the selling volume of old grain is about 12 million tons In the second half of the year, it is expected that the selling of Guochu Jiazi, 506 grain and Chenhua grain will still be the main way to promote grain storage in various regions Although the selling and rotation of a large number of Chenhua grain, Chenhua grain and Guochu grain reduce the inventory pressure and the burden of local finance, the negative impact on the trend of grain prices is obvious to all (2) the impact of grain import and export on the market: in terms of grain export, the national policy orientation is to actively encourage grain export After China's accession to the WTO, when the export subsidies have been cancelled, the state has successively exempted the grain transportation railway construction fund, and implemented zero tax rate and other preferential measures for the export of corn, wheat and rice, which will have a positive impact on reducing the pressure of domestic grain supply and promoting the price recovery In terms of food import, the government's attitude is to protect the domestic food market within the scope permitted by WTO rules and avoid the excessive impact of imported food on the domestic food market The state has successively issued policies such as the administrative measures for the import safety of agricultural genetically modified organisms and the detailed rules for its implementation, aiming to limit the excessive import of grain In the short term, the amount of grain import is limited and the impact on the domestic market is limited (3) the impact of the development of meteorological factors on the market: meteorological factors directly affect the level of grain output If the meteorological factors are favorable, the grain may be harvested abundantly, and the grain price may fall Otherwise, the market grain price will rise From the current situation, the overall meteorological situation is OK According to the latest analysis data from the National Meteorological Bureau, the rainy areas in this summer are located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the eastern part of the south of the Yangtze River Flood may occur in some parts of the area Most parts of the northern part are dominated by light rain, and some parts may continue to dry Although the recent continuous precipitation has relieved the drought in the north, there are many uncertain factors in the later period At present, it is impossible to judge the impact of meteorological conditions on grain production this year If there is a major disaster in the later period, which causes a substantial reduction in grain production, it may cause a sharp rebound in grain prices (IV) the impact on the market caused by the reduction of grain purchase price in the production areas: at present, under the condition that the grain risk fund is contracted, if the high-level protection price policy continues to be implemented, it will bring greater pressure on the local finance After some grain varieties in the main sales areas in the South withdraw from the protection price range, the provinces in the main production areas also show the need to narrow the protection price range and reduce it Tendency of protection price level In this year's summer grain purchase, some provinces reduced the scope of protection price purchase while lowering the protection price of wheat purchase Jilin, a major grain producing province, also made it clear that grain purchase policies should be adjusted in this autumn's grain purchase, and the level of grain purchase protection price should be appropriately reduced With the acceleration of domestic grain market-oriented reform, the negative impact of factors such as the reduction of the scope of grain purchase and protection, the weakening of protection and the reduction of protection price on the market grain price will be reflected in the trend of grain price in the second half of the year (V) the impact of macroeconomic situation on the market: from the domestic perspective, China's economy shows a good growth trend compared with the world economy However, we can't be optimistic blindly After China's accession to the WTO, China's economy is affected by the global economic downturn and instability There are still many problems and uncertain factors in the operation of the economy Among them, deflation shows signs of aggravation, which reflects the weakening of the overall demand, leading to the further decline of the market price From the international point of view, although the current international economy shows signs of thawing, the overall situation of low prices has not changed much Judging from the international and domestic economic situation, the conditions for a sharp rise in food prices are not yet available (VI) the impact of the situation of the grain market in the international market on the domestic market: in recent years, the price of some grain varieties in the international market, such as corn and soybean, has rebounded, but the resilience is not great, and the overall price level is still at a low level In the absence of obvious changes in the relationship between global grain supply and demand, the grain price in the international market will not rise in an all-round way, which will affect the domestic grain market The rise in prices has a restraining effect Based on a comprehensive analysis of many factors affecting the trend of grain prices, we believe that the overall environment of the domestic corn market is in the process of changing from supply exceeding demand in the previous years to the basic balance of supply and demand Due to the continuous decline of the total grain production in recent two years, in addition to the country's increased export of grain, the production in that year can't meet the demand, and the inventory needs to be used to meet the supply and demand gap The contradiction between supply and demand has been alleviated to some extent, and the inventory pressure has been greatly reduced, but the supply-demand relationship has not changed substantially Under the influence of the general environment, we believe that corn prices will continue to maintain a small fluctuation pattern in the future, and neither the increase nor the decrease will be large.