Corn market forecast in 2005

Introduction: 1 Analysis and interpretation of the general trend of the forecast data The current institutions have very different opinions on the output and demand of China's corn in 2004 / 2005, and different institutions have different judgments on the supply and demand situation of China's corn in 2004 / 2005 Here we put forward some of our own views (1) USDA and USDA have the same understanding of production, which is widely recognized by the market As far as the spot traders in Northeast China are concerned, due to the limited arable land in Northeast China, most of the corn is rotated with soybean Under the background of soybean yield increasing by more than 50%, it is impossible for corn yield to increase significantly (2) in terms of consumption, the main components of corn consumption in China are feed consumption, industrial consumption and edible consumption According to the analysis of the authority on the feed industry, in 2004, the consumption of feed corn was 94 million tons, which is expected to be flat or slightly increased in 2005; the industrial consumption increased by 10%, mainly driven by the increase of fuel ethanol, with a total amount of 15.5-16 million tons; the consumption of food remained at 16.5 million tons left and right, with a total of 12700-129 million tons (excluding exports) According to our analysis of consumption data, China's corn consumption has increased by 2.7 million tons annually since 1992 Therefore, it can be estimated that the corn consumption in 2004 / 2005 should be 127.25 million tons Combined with the judgment, the overall supply and demand pattern of corn in 2004 / 2005 was slightly positive Therefore, the keynote of the supply and demand pattern of corn in 2004 / 2005 will be to build the bottom and digest the historical pressure of increasing production, which is consistent with our analysis of the long-term chart Factor evaluation: supply and demand pattern is slightly positive 2 Spot market analysis of the spot price trend of corn in the United States in 2004, corn in the United States fell unilaterally from a high of 320 for six consecutive months, and the spot price hit a two-year low in September After entering October, the platform will be built in 190-160, in which, although there is a puncture for the lower rail of the section, 160 still has a strong support for the spot Compared with the spot price, the CBOT corn price keeps a high synchronization with the spot price However, it should be noted that after September, the futures price has been running above the spot price The rising relative to the spot price indicates that the futures price, as a leading indicator, has been cautious about the decline of the spot price and is unwilling to follow up At the same time, the price of futures contracts is near low and far high, which is also a good signal for the future market 3 Compared with the drastic fluctuation of foreign corn spot market, the fluctuation range of domestic corn is obviously reduced, and the overall trend is relatively stable At present, the price of sales area is 1280-1350 yuan / ton, and the price of main production area is 1070-1150 yuan / ton Market analysis shows that although the production area is under great pressure of new corn listing, the support of 1050-1000 yuan / ton (Jilin main production area) is still strong According to the information center of the Ministry of agriculture, the current domestic corn price is a seasonal price reduction based on the highest price in recent years Different from the international corn market, the domestic corn market price is still at a relatively high level, and there may be some room for price reduction in the later stage It is worth noting that there is a linkage between the prices of several major food varieties If the price of corn continues to decline, it may affect the trend of wheat and rice prices, and also affect the confidence of farmers in planting corn in 2005 Therefore, it is necessary to pay close attention to the market trend, timely use the double leverage of Grain Reserve throughput and import and export measures to adjust the market supply and demand relationship, and prevent corn prices from rising and falling Factor evaluation: corn spot prices at home and abroad show signs of support, positive 4 Introduction of corn import and export: corn is an important export agricultural product in China In 2003, the total export volume of corn reached a historical record of 16.39 million tons However, with the decrease of domestic corn stock, the state cancelled the export subsidy of corn From January to October 2004, the export volume decreased sharply to less than 2 million tons Most of our corn is used for feed processing after export The average quality requirement is not special The quality of our corn can completely meet the buyer's requirements Due to the advantages of shipping costs, the cost of imported corn from East Asia and other countries is low, the price is more than $15 different from that of the United States, and the transfer efficiency is very high, so corn can be harvested on demand, so China has a considerable advantage in the region Now, considering the export subsidies and other factors, the export profit of corn is almost zero The key to improve the foreign quotation of China's corn export is to see the market supply and demand Even if the subsidies are cancelled and the quotation is increased, considering the transportation and transfer efficiency, the export volume will not be significantly reduced In recent two years, the price difference between domestic and foreign corn is usually between 100-300 yuan / ton In March 2004, the price difference was more than 600 yuan In 2003 / 2004, the import of corn was less than 10000 tons The information center of the Ministry of agriculture predicts that China's Congress will increase the import of corn in 2004 / 05, but the quantity is limited, which will not affect the domestic corn market price Under the condition of no essential difference in quality, imported corn has no advantage in price and is not competitive Factor evaluation: China's corn has a regional price advantage in export, with strong competitiveness and favorable results 5 The hot spot of corn consumption in the future industrial corn consumption is the biggest hot spot of corn consumption, mainly including corn germ oil, corn starch sugar and bioethanol, among which bioethanol consumption growth space is the most prominent In the United States, for example, bioethanol consumption of corn has accounted for 16% of the total consumption, but less than 1% 24 years ago! From the development of bioethanol in China, the demand for corn is expected to exceed 3 million tons in 2005, an increase of more than 30% Factor evaluation: China's industrial corn consumption growth potential is huge, long-term positive 6 Based on the 30-year continuous chart of corn in CBOT, we can clearly see the upward trend of oscillation and the upward trend of bottom elevation; we can see that the symmetry form since 1987 is being established; we can see that the bottom will gradually form here and the upward trend will begin Factor evaluation: the long-term chart indicates the long-term low range, and the window of time will open in 2005 7 Seasonal characteristics of period price fluctuation Through the analysis of 30-year long-term chart of CBOT corn, we can see that the probability of the high occurring in April May, July August and December January is 30%, 26.6% and 26.6% respectively; the probability of the low occurring in November January is 43.3%, 30% and 30% respectively The cycle of corn spot crops in the United States is from December to November of the next year The lowest spot price occurs from December to February, while the highest spot price occurs from July to September According to the statistics of corn contract price trend of CBOT in recent 10 years in March, it is found that the probability of the highest price of futures forming in December February is 80%; the probability of the lowest price appearing in July September is 30%; the probability of the lowest price appearing in December February is 40% This is a certain difference from the trend of the spot market The reason for this difference is that at this time of each year, the output of new corn is gradually clear, the short-term impact on market psychology and supply-demand pattern is weakened, and the technical side generally has rebound requirements What's more, in the past 10 years, the corn market in the United States has rarely seen significant upward trend, and the high point appears in the rebound market rather than in the trend market 8 The relationship between period price and ending inventory 2004 / 2005 is not the year with the largest ending inventory and the highest inventory consumption ratio in the United States However, the ending inventory and inventory consumption ratio in 2000 / 2001 set a historical record, and the period price is still stable above 180 More importantly, the period price has fallen by nearly 43% from 335 to 191 What's the bad news that can't be digested? Factor evaluation: the data of non historical high inventory and inventory consumption ratio is not enough to make people believe that the puncture of low point is beneficial 9 Fund position analysis and analysis of the fund's position structure and adjustment trend can analyze the operation intention of the most active main funds We have analyzed the fund's position structure since 2002, and found that the ratio of multiple single funds in the United States is 30.2%, basically reaching the lower limit of 30%, one-way movement 39 weeks, close to the limit of 40 weeks Therefore, we can draw the conclusion that the momentum of fund selling is exhausted, and the period price accumulates the retaliatory rebound energy because of the urgent need to adjust the risk of overweight position Factor evaluation: speculative fund short selling energy exhaustion, period price rebound is on the verge of coming out, positive 10 Weighted analysis of exchange rate we use the US dollar exchange rate as the weight to do a weighted analysis of the corn price in the United States From this we can see that in the past 13 years, below 190 constitutes an obvious oscillation bottom range In November 2004, the weighted price was 157, a new low in the past 15 years Based on the analysis of the weighted price, the current period price was once oversold If the weakness of the US dollar continues, how will the weak correlation period price follow up? It seems impractical to fall, or to return to below 160 weighted price again Factor evaluation: in the weak market of the US dollar, under the weak negative correlation of the exchange rate, the corn price has no deep falling space, which is positive 11 Analysis of corn period price in China in the past three months since the listing of Dalian corn, as of December 14, the total position of Dalian corn was nearly 270000, the turnover was more than 250000, and the daily turnover was nearly 100%, with stable fluctuations and active transactions Below we analyze the corn index The main contract is in May The prices of each contract are near low and far high The market is optimistic about the future On October 8, 2004, after the corn price was 1116, a rising channel was built and the oscillation was upward After 34 days of low price, the volume of increased positions broke through the strong resistance level of 1160, but then fell back It should be noted that this is just a clean-up of technical funds, but at the same time, it also reminds us not to chase the corn up and down too much At present, corn price is accumulating the breakthrough power to 1180 strong resistance level Once 1180 breaks through effectively, the price can rise to 1220 line, that is, the last track of parallel channel Factor evaluation: period price rising channel operation, contract price rising arrangement, positive 12 Analysis of period price and RMB exchange rate under the condition that the depreciation trend of US dollar may continue, the pressure of RMB appreciation will continue to increase In terms of export, China's corn export market is concentrated in South Korea, Japan, Southeast Asia and other surrounding markets, and its advantages mainly lie in low freight However, once the RMB appreciates, the advantages of freight will be offset by the disadvantages of corn's own cost, and it will be at a disadvantage in export competition Import: at present, China's corn import is basically zero, because the import cost is much higher than the domestic price Therefore, a large amount of demand in the South still needs to be transferred from the north However, due to the serious transportation bottleneck in Northeast China, the whole logistics link is not smooth and the cost is too high Currently, the cost from Jilin main production area to Guangdong Huangpu accounts for about 25% of the sales price Right, very high Once the RMB appreciates, due to the reduction of import cost and logistics