Corn and soybean production forecast in the United States

Introduction: Corn Yield in the United States is surprisingly high this year, despite droughts in July and early August for most of the time Higher than expected unit yield fully proves that corn production technology can be improved The U.S Department of agriculture, in its October production report, expected the national average corn yield to be 136.3 bushels per acre This yield forecast is 0.8 bushels lower than last year's, but is exactly the same as the long-term trend yield, only 2.3 bushels lower than the highest record yield in 1994 According to the unit yield of corn in 1960-2000, the trend unit yield in 2001 is estimated to be 136 bushels / acre The annual growth rate of corn yield trend is about 1.75 bushels / year It is expected that the trend yield in 2002 may be close to the highest record yield of 138.6 bushels / acre in 1994 If the climate is suitable for the whole season, the national average yield of corn may be close to 140 bushels / acre In 2001, the U.S Department of agriculture estimated that 9 out of 41 corn producing states would have record yields Record yield states are in the Ohio River Basin and the southeastern United States Only Indiana, one of the major corn producing states in the Midwest, now estimates a record high of 160 bushels per acre, well above the previous record of 147 bushels per acre The delay of spring humid climate affects the unit yield potential of Northwest corn belt, especially Minnesota, but some areas are seriously affected, such as northwest Ohio and parts of Michigan USDA data showed that the number of tassels was the second highest when samples were taken from seven USDA states for testing The highest number of tassels reported was in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Wisconsin But Nebraska and Minnesota's below average number of tassels hindered their potential per unit yield On the whole, it seems that the production is in good condition in spring and early summer, the number of tassels is high, and there is enough soil moisture from the early season to maintain the crop dry yield potential in summer from July to August The national average soybean yield is expected to be 39.2 bushels per acre, the second highest on record Similar to corn, soybean yields exceeded expectations, although the Northern Corn Belt of the United States was planted late and dry in the summer Timely rainfall in the middle of August is good for crop to avoid serious yield loss Our analysis of soybean trend per unit yield is not as clear as that of corn We believe that the long-term trend can show the current yield potential This analysis means that the soybean yield per unit in 2001 is one bushel higher than the trend yield USDA's use is based on a trend of 39.5 bushels per acre between the mid-1980s and 2001 The 16 year trend is expected to be 39.5 bushels per acre this year According to the standard, the U.S Department of agriculture currently predicts that the national average yield per unit is 39.2 bushels / acre, slightly lower than the trend yield The trend per unit yield from 1985 to 2000 reflects that the annual growth rate of soybean per unit yield is lower than 0.5 bushels per year On the contrary, the long-term soybean growth rate is 0.38 bushels / year The enhancement of transgenic technology will be the main factor to improve the long-term yield Since the 1980s, two other factors have led to an increase in the national average per unit yield First, the soybean planting area moved from the southern part of the United States to the corn belt and the northern part of the plain In addition, since the mid-1980s, expanding the planting distance is conducive to the increase of per unit yield The expected top single soybean producing states are Indiana (49 bushels / acre) and Kentucky (41 bushels / acre) But Illinois, Ohio, and much of the southern United States have overall good yields Michigan, on the other hand, has been severely affected by late planting and a summer drought In Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin, soybean yield per unit area is also lower than the 5-year average This year's situation shows that the short-term trend yield in 1985-2000 is more significant than the long-term trend yield in guiding soybean yield From 1985 to 2000, the trend yield of soybean is expected to be about 40 bushels / acre in 2002.