Corn analysis report in May

Introduction: the market price of corn this month is generally stable and rising Huang Huai area in North China rose steadily, while that in Northeast China rose first This month, the national average price of second-class yellow corn is 1030 yuan / ton, 0.59% higher than the previous month's 1024 yuan / ton The average price of third-class corn in the wholesale market of Jilin grain center this month was 940 yuan / ton, down 3.59% from 975 yuan / ton last month Analysis of the current corn market: first, the decrease of corn supply quantity in Huanghuai area of North China, because the corn quality in Huanghuai area of North China is better than that in Northeast China, and the active purchase in the sales area, the corn supply quantity in this area is significantly reduced It is more difficult for the storage enterprises to purchase, and the purchase price is gradually higher 2 The corn sales in Northeast China are booming In view of the tight corn supply in North China, Huang Huai Region, the hot spot of corn purchase in the sales area has turned to Northeast China In the later stage, with the increase of purchasing volume of grain enterprises in the sales area, the price of corn is bound to rise 3 The number of corn selling in the main corn producing areas in Northeast China increased This month, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia and other regions are still selling corn on a large scale According to incomplete statistics, the three regions sold 3.69 million tons of corn It is understood that there is no plan to sell a large amount of corn in the main northeast corn production area in the later period 4 The growth of Maize in Northeast China is affected by drought and El Nino The climate in the first five months of this year is characterized by heavy rainfall in the Huanghuai region and drought in Northeast China This month is the emergence period of Maize in Northeast China, and the arid climate is very unfavorable to the emergence and seedling raising of maize 5 The export situation of corn is good According to the statistics provided by the General Administration of customs, 855100 tons of corn were exported in April this year Among them, 338100 tons were exported to South Korea, 230500 tons to Malaysia, 146800 tons to Indonesia, 49500 tons to Vietnam and 36400 tons to North Korea From January to April, China exported 2.9555 million tons of corn, a year-on-year increase of 16.31%, including 1.5798 million tons to South Korea, 731700 tons to Malaysia, 226500 tons to Indonesia, 114200 tons to Vietnam, 107400 tons to North Korea, 56800 tons to Japan In the case of canceling export subsidies after China's accession to the WTO, the year-on-year growth of China's corn export deserves attention It is expected that this year's corn export will exceed 6 million tons last year, and the two largest corn exporters in China have made good expectations for the future corn export This year, Kyrgyzstan grain may export 4 million tons of corn and COFCO may export 2 million tons If the market is in good condition, corn exports are expected to be larger Recently, the state announced the arrangement of local reserve corn export plan Jilin, Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia and Hebei arranged 1452500 tons of local reserve corn export plan 6 International market situation the International Grain Council (IGC) estimates that the global gross grain output this month is 911 million tons (888 million tons last year), only 3 million tons lower than the highest record output in 1996 / 1997 It is estimated that the global consumption of coarse grain in 2002 / 03 will increase by 14 million tons, to 916 million tons, and the trade volume of coarse grain will be 105 million tons, 1 million tons lower than that in 2001 / 2002 It is estimated that the total ending inventory of the world's top five coarse grain exporting countries in 2002 / 03 will be 74 million tons It is estimated that the total global crude grain inventory is 151 million tons (last year, it was 173 million tons) CBOT corn prices rose this month The main reason is that the eastern part of the corn planting belt in the United States continues to be rainy, leading to delayed sowing and possible reduction of sowing area; in addition, the adverse weather has led to a reduction in the emergence rate, and the corn crop rating is the worst year since 1986; in addition, the strong demand for corn exports in the United States in May and the rise of other grain prices in CBOT also supported the increase of corn prices this month According to the analysis of the current corn market situation, the shortage of corn supply, the good situation of corn export and the situation of corn planting and growth are the key factors affecting the corn market in the near future It is expected that the corn market in the near future will tend to be stable and rising.