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"During this year's spring plowing period, the supply of major fertilizer varieties was sufficient, and production was relatively stable.
The narrow decline in the prices of agricultural products last year made the terminal planting less enthusiastic this year, and the demand was stable but declined.
" Analyst Shi Xuxu told reporters that this year's spring plowing compound Compared with previous years, the performance of distributors in the fertilizer market was slightly hesitant, and both the stocking volume and the sales volume were not satisfactory.
Urea trend leads compound fertilizer analyst Xu Shuxian said that summer fertilizers are mostly high-nitrogen fertilizers, and urea trends play a decisive role in summer fertilizer pricing.
Beginning in mid-March, the urea market fluctuated upwards with a relatively large amplitude.
According to data, as of March 25, the mainstream transaction of small particles in Shandong was between RMB 1,340 and RMB 1,370 per ton, an increase of RMB 120 per ton from RMB 1,220 to RMB 1,250 per ton on March 10, with an average price increase of 9.
.
72%.
The main reason is the promotion of the use of fertilizer at the downstream agricultural grassroots level, the start of fertilizer preparation in the summer of the compound fertilizer factory, the tight market supply, and the high speculation atmosphere.
At present, the main compound fertilizer companies mainly deliver orders for spring plowing, and the price level is adjusted cautiously.
Judging from the raw material stocking situation of major compound fertilizer companies, most of them started to receive materials in mid-March, and the stocking volume was about one month.
Based on the current arrival price in Shandong, the raw material cost of corn fertilizer 40% cl28-6-6 is 1330 yuan/ton, plus the production cost of 300 yuan/ton, and the total cost is 1630 yuan/ton.
However, the current mainstream price of corn fertilizer is 1600 yuan to 1700 yuan/ton, and some low-end areas in Jiangsu and Anhui are around 1550 yuan/ton.
Driven by the recent rise in urea, the intention of some low-end offer companies has increased.
But how to formulate the summer fertilizer policy, most companies still said that they still need to wait and see, and further determine the trend of urea.
One of the advantages of urea in April is electricity price and the other is export.
However, apart from India's 500,000 to 700,000 tons bidding plan, there is no other big order news for the time being.
At the same time, it is understood that there are still nearly 700,000 tons of inventory in India's current ports, which may affect my country's urea export volume.
In addition, the summer raw material stocking of the compound fertilizer plant has begun, and the later purchases are mostly based on the advance payment orders.
The overall start-up load of the urea plant is relatively high, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the market has not been completely eliminated for the time being.
Although there is still a favorable support for electricity prices in April, it seems to have been digested in advance by the market at the end of the month.
At present, most of the market participants see stability in the later trend of urea, and some even believe that it will slightly pull back.
Multiple factors dominate the weak situation.
Shi Xuxu said that the spring ploughing compound fertilizer market demand is slow to start and the amount of fertilizer preparation is limited.
Grain prices are gradually moving closer to the international market, and there are still downside risks in the later stage.
If the income of terminal farmers declines, their investment in agricultural materials will inevitably decrease.
Because of this, dealers have difficulties in distributing goods.
They abandon the habit of preparing a large amount of fertilizer in the early stage, and now adopt the business model of in-and-out.
The price of fertilizer products has fallen more than expected.
The price of raw materials has shown a downward trend in the past two years, especially since the second half of 2015.
Up to now, the price of SDIC Luo potassium has fallen by 25.
4% compared with the same period last year, the price of monoammonium has fallen by 14.
14%, and the price of urea has fallen by 14.
74%.
The low level of raw materials is bound to be transmitted to compound fertilizers.
Generally speaking, after winter storage, prices in peak seasons for spring ploughing demand will increase.
This year, due to the lack of enthusiasm for fertilizer preparation, some companies lowered the partial allocation ratio price in February, ranging from 50 yuan to 100 yuan.
Yuan / ton.
Manufacturers' inventory pressure is not small, and they are still plagued by funding problems.
The introduction of a value-added tax on September 1, 2015 has made most companies increase their preferential efforts.
To avoid rising costs, some wholesalers and retailers have purchased more sources, so that there are more social inventories that have not been consumed.
The problem of funding is the status quo of credit sales that has been plagued by the agricultural material industry.
Shi Xuxu said that based on the above characteristics, it can be seen that the weakness of spring ploughing of compound fertilizers may be difficult to recover.
In the long run, this year will be a key year for the industry to reshuffle.
De-capacity and standardization of industry development are not just talks.
The situation will spur the industry to accelerate the pace of adjustment.
Xu Shuxian believes that the urea market in the first half of the year is hard to see big ups and downs, which will determine the prudence of compound fertilizer companies in pricing.
Traditional summer fertilizer policies mostly include interest calculation, minimum guarantee, rebate, buyout, etc.
However, under the background of unstable raw materials, dealers pay more attention to the actual buyout price.
Calculated by the cost of preparing materials, the current price of compound fertilizer is basically consistent with the cost of raw materials, that is, it is unlikely that the price of compound fertilizer companies will be adjusted significantly.
It is expected that in addition to partial adjustments to the summer policy of compound fertilizers, the mainstream prices of medium and large enterprises may stabilize.
The narrow decline in the prices of agricultural products last year made the terminal planting less enthusiastic this year, and the demand was stable but declined.
" Analyst Shi Xuxu told reporters that this year's spring plowing compound Compared with previous years, the performance of distributors in the fertilizer market was slightly hesitant, and both the stocking volume and the sales volume were not satisfactory.
Urea trend leads compound fertilizer analyst Xu Shuxian said that summer fertilizers are mostly high-nitrogen fertilizers, and urea trends play a decisive role in summer fertilizer pricing.
Beginning in mid-March, the urea market fluctuated upwards with a relatively large amplitude.
According to data, as of March 25, the mainstream transaction of small particles in Shandong was between RMB 1,340 and RMB 1,370 per ton, an increase of RMB 120 per ton from RMB 1,220 to RMB 1,250 per ton on March 10, with an average price increase of 9.
.
72%.
The main reason is the promotion of the use of fertilizer at the downstream agricultural grassroots level, the start of fertilizer preparation in the summer of the compound fertilizer factory, the tight market supply, and the high speculation atmosphere.
At present, the main compound fertilizer companies mainly deliver orders for spring plowing, and the price level is adjusted cautiously.
Judging from the raw material stocking situation of major compound fertilizer companies, most of them started to receive materials in mid-March, and the stocking volume was about one month.
Based on the current arrival price in Shandong, the raw material cost of corn fertilizer 40% cl28-6-6 is 1330 yuan/ton, plus the production cost of 300 yuan/ton, and the total cost is 1630 yuan/ton.
However, the current mainstream price of corn fertilizer is 1600 yuan to 1700 yuan/ton, and some low-end areas in Jiangsu and Anhui are around 1550 yuan/ton.
Driven by the recent rise in urea, the intention of some low-end offer companies has increased.
But how to formulate the summer fertilizer policy, most companies still said that they still need to wait and see, and further determine the trend of urea.
One of the advantages of urea in April is electricity price and the other is export.
However, apart from India's 500,000 to 700,000 tons bidding plan, there is no other big order news for the time being.
At the same time, it is understood that there are still nearly 700,000 tons of inventory in India's current ports, which may affect my country's urea export volume.
In addition, the summer raw material stocking of the compound fertilizer plant has begun, and the later purchases are mostly based on the advance payment orders.
The overall start-up load of the urea plant is relatively high, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the market has not been completely eliminated for the time being.
Although there is still a favorable support for electricity prices in April, it seems to have been digested in advance by the market at the end of the month.
At present, most of the market participants see stability in the later trend of urea, and some even believe that it will slightly pull back.
Multiple factors dominate the weak situation.
Shi Xuxu said that the spring ploughing compound fertilizer market demand is slow to start and the amount of fertilizer preparation is limited.
Grain prices are gradually moving closer to the international market, and there are still downside risks in the later stage.
If the income of terminal farmers declines, their investment in agricultural materials will inevitably decrease.
Because of this, dealers have difficulties in distributing goods.
They abandon the habit of preparing a large amount of fertilizer in the early stage, and now adopt the business model of in-and-out.
The price of fertilizer products has fallen more than expected.
The price of raw materials has shown a downward trend in the past two years, especially since the second half of 2015.
Up to now, the price of SDIC Luo potassium has fallen by 25.
4% compared with the same period last year, the price of monoammonium has fallen by 14.
14%, and the price of urea has fallen by 14.
74%.
The low level of raw materials is bound to be transmitted to compound fertilizers.
Generally speaking, after winter storage, prices in peak seasons for spring ploughing demand will increase.
This year, due to the lack of enthusiasm for fertilizer preparation, some companies lowered the partial allocation ratio price in February, ranging from 50 yuan to 100 yuan.
Yuan / ton.
Manufacturers' inventory pressure is not small, and they are still plagued by funding problems.
The introduction of a value-added tax on September 1, 2015 has made most companies increase their preferential efforts.
To avoid rising costs, some wholesalers and retailers have purchased more sources, so that there are more social inventories that have not been consumed.
The problem of funding is the status quo of credit sales that has been plagued by the agricultural material industry.
Shi Xuxu said that based on the above characteristics, it can be seen that the weakness of spring ploughing of compound fertilizers may be difficult to recover.
In the long run, this year will be a key year for the industry to reshuffle.
De-capacity and standardization of industry development are not just talks.
The situation will spur the industry to accelerate the pace of adjustment.
Xu Shuxian believes that the urea market in the first half of the year is hard to see big ups and downs, which will determine the prudence of compound fertilizer companies in pricing.
Traditional summer fertilizer policies mostly include interest calculation, minimum guarantee, rebate, buyout, etc.
However, under the background of unstable raw materials, dealers pay more attention to the actual buyout price.
Calculated by the cost of preparing materials, the current price of compound fertilizer is basically consistent with the cost of raw materials, that is, it is unlikely that the price of compound fertilizer companies will be adjusted significantly.
It is expected that in addition to partial adjustments to the summer policy of compound fertilizers, the mainstream prices of medium and large enterprises may stabilize.
