Chinese scholars have developed a new dementia risk prediction model that can predict the onset of dementia ten years in advance

The UKB-DRP dementia prediction model is highly effective in predicting all-cause dementia and Alzheimer's disease over the next five years, ten years or even longer
.

September 26 (Sun Guogen, Chen Jing) Chinese experts have carried out multidisciplinary cross-disciplinary joint research, using biomedical big data and artificial intelligence algorithms to develop a new dementia risk prediction model, and named it UKB-DRP
.

This model is a general model that can make forward-looking and intelligent predictions of the incidence risk of all-cause dementia and its main subtype (Alzheimer's disease) at the same time, and can accurately predict
whether an individual will develop the disease in five years, ten years, or even longer.

The UKB-DRP dementia prediction model has a high predictive effect on all-cause dementia and Alzheimer's disease in the next five years, ten years or even longer, with the predicted AUC value of 0.

The research team further evaluated the risk calibration of the UKB-DRP predicted dementia model, and the consistency of the new dementia events predicted by the model and the observed dementia occurrence events was high
.

The clinical research team of Professor Yu Jintai of Huashan Hospital affiliated to Fudan University and the research results carried out by Professor Feng Jianfeng/Cheng Wei Young Researcher Team of the Institute of Brain-like Intelligence Science and Technology of Fudan University have been published in the latest issue of the Lancet journal "Electronic Clinical Medicine"
.

Yu Jintai said that with the extension of human life expectancy and the increasing degree of social aging, the number of patients with dementia is increasing year by year, and the number of dementia patients in China is currently large, which brings heavy care and economic burden
to society and families.

According to reports, the clinical research team used the UK Biobank cohort to follow up with 425159 non-dementia people aged 40-69 years, and during the follow-up of up to 11.

Subsequently, the researchers used machine learning algorithms to calculate the importance of each indicator to the dementia prediction model, and finally selected the top ten indicators as dementia predictors, and constructed the UKB-DRP dementia prediction model
.

Yu Jintai told reporters that the advantage of the UKB-DRP dementia prediction model is that the ten predictors it includes can be quickly obtained
from questionnaires, simple physical examinations and routine blood tests.

In order to facilitate one-click operation by the public, the research team has developed a web-based application of the UKB-DRP dementia prediction model (https://jiayou0907.