China's wheat and corn export prospects are difficult this year

Introduction: last year, China exported 8769408 tons of grain, including 5996624 tons of corn, 454218 tons of wheat, 1847820 tons of rice, 262277 tons of soybeans and 696 tons of barley This paper focuses on the export of wheat and corn With regard to the export of wheat in China this year, the U.S Department of agriculture forecasts that the annual export volume in July 2001 / June 2002 will be 600000 tons, and the Department of agriculture of China forecasts that it will be 1 million tons But judging from the recent international bidding, China's export is in a very unfavorable situation Take South Korea, our main grain exporter, as an example The recent procurement situation in South Korea is as follows: the last time NACF held a tender on March 7, it purchased 102500 tons of feed corn In the case of feed corn from the United States and South America, the CNF price is US $105.11 per ton, corn from China is US $101.40 to US $106.61 per ton, and soybean meal is US $173.77 per ton In a tender on March 19, 52500 tons of feed wheat, 25000 tons of feed corn and 15000 tons of brown kernel meal were purchased Finally, the CNF price of the feed wheat purchased from Glencore International Co., Ltd was only 97.49 USD / ton, and it arrived at Incheon and Busan Port on July 20 South Korea's main feed processing plant (MFG) also bought 50000 tons of feed wheat from unlimited sources on March 20, with CNF price of US $97.32/ton and the seller being Concordia company On the same day, the Pusan branch of Korea feed Association (KFA) held a bidding, and also purchased 25700 tons of feed wheat from Concordia company, with unlimited production areas, which arrived at Busan Port on June 30 CNF price is $100.50 per ton These bidding procurement for our country's exporters, are mostly out of reach, rarely able to receive orders At this stage, if the inquiry is made to China's grain exporter, the export price of corn in China is generally US $fob105 / ton (the same as the price of feed wheat) In the recent (March 19) bidding of feed importers in South Korea, China's grain exporters quoted us $fob102 / ton, and some quoted us $100 / ton, but there was no transaction (the final transaction price was cnf97.32 USD / ton) But recently, the CIF price of the corn purchased by Toepfer from China and shipped to South Korea is only 104.7 USD / ton, which is shipped by boat It is speculated that the shipment price in China is only about 97 US dollars per ton, and there is a discount using the Russian foundation In spite of such a low price, the volume is not large Compared with the international market price CIF to South Korea, most of them are from 97 US dollars / ton to 102 US dollars / ton Moreover, in the world grain market, grain prices are generally bearish, and there is no large order transaction This is even worse for China's grain export In addition to the quality of no advantage, China's offer slightly higher than the international market has been difficult to attract the attention of the buyer Recent transactions also prove this point Only Indonesia recently purchased feed wheat from China, and previous customers such as South Korea, Malaysia and other procurement directions have been transferred to other countries Although China exported 22000 tons of corn to Vietnam last month, it was only an individual act From this point of view, China's grain export road this year is difficult and tortuous! Unless the international market changes greatly, or our country adjusts the grain export price, it is difficult to have a competitive advantage in the international market Compared with the domestic market price, it is very difficult to adjust the export price, especially after China's accession to the WTO, in accordance with the rules of the agreement on agriculture, it is not allowed to export subsidies by a large margin As far as the current situation is concerned, it is very difficult for China to make a breakthrough in grain export this year compared with last year (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: