China's pig market situation in 2020 and 2021 development prospects forecast

Outlook 2021: Pig supply is expected to gradually recover, pig prices in 2021 in the downward cycle, but considering the inefficient structure of sows, African swine fever outbreak and other factors on the supply constraints, supply recovery and pig prices should be more moderate.
the average pig price in 2021 decreased by about 30% YoY to about RMB25/kg, which can still support higher farming profits.
, by the end of the third quarter of 2020, there were 37.39 million pigs in the country, an increase of 9.0% over the end of the second quarter and four consecutive quarters of increase since the fourth quarter of last year. That's up 20.7 percent from the end of the third quarter, when the year was low.
2020 Summary Review 1. National Frequency Policy - To ensure the stability of pig prices and the healthy development of the industry According to the China Institute of Commerce and Industry rough statistics, 2020 with pig-related policies about 10, of which about 2 about African swine fever.
the start of the year in 2020, the State Council issued the Opinions on Ensuring comprehensive well-being on schedule, and proposed the goal of ensuring that the production capacity of commercial pigs will return to a relatively normal level by 2020.
data source: China Business Industry Research Institute collated 2." African swine fever and "new crown pneumonia" double impact (1) African swine fever with the country to further increase investment in animal epidemic prevention work, the effective implementation of various prevention and control measures, excluding African swine fever, pig major outbreaks have been effectively controlled, affecting pig production of foot-and-mouth disease, highly pathogenic swine blue ear disease, swine fever and other epidemic epidemic intensity decreased year by year, the frequency of disease significantly reduced, the scope of the disease significantly reduced.
the new outbreak has dropped significantly, Hainan, Liaoning, Jilin Yongji built an immunization-free foot-and-mouth disease area.
outbreaks of pig disease, such as foot-and-mouth disease, were generally stable, and no major regional pig outbreaks occurred.
data sources: National Bureau of Statistics, China Commercial Industry Research Institute to organize the African swine fever has also had an impact on the pig industry: African swine fever virus in the case of no effective vaccine, the high probability can not be completely eliminated, only by improving the industrial environment, enhance the level of prevention and control to reduce the probability of occurrence, compared with the initial period, the focus of the epidemic prevention work in the illegal transfer of pigs has been strengthened, since March this year, the national report of 13 outbreaks of swine African swine fever, the vast majority of which were triggered by illegal transfer.
the advantages of integrated breeding and slaughtering enterprises is more obvious, the risk of cold chain transportation of white meat can be greatly reduced.
a. The impact on pork prices in affected areas pig prices can not be out of the province price decline is inevitable, and the sale area pig prices may be due to oversupply and stable rise.
b "South pig north" hot cooling agriculture and animal husbandry giants are most enthusiastic about two places: northeast and southwest, and this African swine fever was first found in the northeast, which will also make agriculture and animal husbandry related business investment will face a round of policy and epidemic test.
(2) The outbreak of the new crown outbreak has had a short-term impact on the pig farming industry on several levels: many companies have been forced to temporarily close their operations because of city closures and travel restrictions that have prevented workers from returning to work.
local government requirements, companies are required to have adequate medical protective equipment in place before returning to work.
most companies were unable to resume operations due to a severe shortage of medical supplies in February 2020.
, the supply of commercial pigs was affected in February and prices remained high.
outbreak of new crown pneumonia has caused a certain impact on pig production, but has not fundamentally changed the recovery of pig production to a good situation.
The outbreak mainly affected some feed, veterinary drugs, slaughtering enterprises failed to resume production as planned, some farmers animal epidemic prevention, pig breeding, piglets to make up the bar blocked, as well as the new and expanded pig farm to resume work time was forced to be pushed back.
from the point of view of consumer prices, in November 2020, China's pig production capacity continued to recover, pork supply continued to improve, prices fell -12.5%, a decline of about 10 percentage points over the previous month.
data sources: National Bureau of Statistics, China Commercial Industry Research and Research from the wholesale price of pork, the national wholesale average price of pork in November was 39.43 yuan / kg, down about 3 yuan / kg from the previous month, this year for the first time fell below 40 yuan.
data sources: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, China Commercial Industry Research and Collation pig industry 2021 development forecast 1. Market size according to sales income of the commodity pig market size fluctuates with the pig cycle, the market size due to the pig cycle and local farmers exit the market and gradually decline.
market is expected to recover slowly after the outbreak of swine fever in Africa.
pig market reached an all-time high in 2016 with high pig prices, and has since begun to decline.
the pig market as a whole has recovered slowly since the end of 2019.
demand for pork across the country is expected to reach 86.5 billion yuan by 2021 due to the new crown outbreak and the impact of swine fever in Africa.
this situation, large pig breeding companies will have the opportunity to gain a larger market share.
2. The number of sows in China is expected to decline sharply in 2018 and 2019 as a result of the outbreak of swine fever in Africa, and this figure is expected to pick up from 2021, helped by the resumption of supply of pigs, good policies and expansion of the capacity of large pig breeding companies.
China's commodity pig stock will also be negatively affected by African swine fever and environmental protection restrictions, commodity pig stock column recently fell sharply, China's commodity pig stock is expected to rebound after 2020, is expected to reach about 250.8 million head in 2021.
2021, the top 10 pig companies out of the column plan is 2.5 times the 2020 level, up to 144 million head in December 2020, Zhengbang Technology in the investor research records revealed that the company is expected to produce 25 million pigs in 2021; New Hope also said that the 25 million head of the column in 2021 target remains unchanged; Muyuan shares in the agency research said that as of the end of November, the total number of pig storage column about 22 million head, is expected to be able to breed sow stock can reach about 2.6 million head by the end of the year, in addition, Makhara shares also said that the company has reserved more than 80 million pigs production capacity corresponding to the land.
expects production capacity to reach about 50 million head by the end of 2020.
the 2021 pig-out program, depending on construction in 2020 and pig farm delivery, it is expected to be disclosed in the 2020 annual report that the company's capacity expansion efforts show a quarter-on-quarter increase in momentum, 2021-2022 out of the column volume can be increased.
the 2021 target set by Mr. Wen is 30 million.
it is worth noting that twins, as representatives of pig-breeding enterprises, have a pig-breeding capacity, with more than 2 million twin pigs in 2019 and 5 million in 2020.
the twins have not yet announced plans to release 40 million pigs in 2021, the company has previously announced a target of 40 million pigs in 2023.
from the point of view of various enterprises, in 2021 Muyuan, Wenshi, Zhengbang pig out of the column plan ranked in the top three, respectively, 5000, 3000 and 25 million head.
2021, the highest increase in the number of pig out-of-box programs, reaching 220 percent, 3.2 times the 2021 out-of-the-box program.
addition, Makhara, Tianbang, Wenshi, Dabei farmers and other growth rate of more than 150%, 8 out of 10 enterprises out of the plan more than 100%.
2021, the supply of pork will continue to increase from the supply side.
, the number of pigs out of the column and slaughter is expected to double; On the other hand, the supply of frozen meat is relatively limited.
from the demand side, pork consumption has increased.
mainly because of the New Year's Day, the Spring Festival approaching, especially in Sichuan, Chongqing, the two lakes began to produce pickled pork, pork procurement demand increased significantly.
analysis, it is not expected that there will be a significant increase in pork prices in 2021.