China's overall economy 'soft landing' RMB will not appreciate in the near future

Introduction: location quotation unit price yesterday, Credit Suisse, the world's leading investment bank, released the 2004 China Economic Outlook report, which predicted that China's economy may slow down under the guidance of policies in 2004, while consumption and the overall economy will eventually achieve a "soft landing" According to the report, the cyclical changes in China's economy are of great importance to investors in assets and fixed income securities in 2004 These impacts may exist in the global macroeconomic, national, industrial and stock levels Based on this, the report also studies the above aspects In the past few months, due to the positive trend of China's macro-economy, many international investment banks have raised their expectations of China's GDP this year However, in the report, Credit Suisse's First Boston believes that China's economy is likely to develop at a high speed and move at a low speed, that is, the economy may maintain a strong momentum in the first half of this year Later, China's economic growth is likely to drop from the current 9% rate to 7% or less in the fourth quarter of 2005 However, the report also believes that the slowdown in China's consumption and overall growth is moderate, while investment is relatively affected This is due to Credit Suisse's First Boston prediction of China's overall economic trend: in the 18 months from the middle of 2004, the central bank's one-year basic interest rate rose by 200 basis points All borrowing rates will rise on a similar scale, but deposit rates may rise less The report warns that there may even be tightening policies in China at the end of 2004 Once the policy adjustment occurs, the growth of fixed asset investment will drop significantly It is expected that the year-on-year growth will drop from the current 22.6% to nearly zero at the end of 2005 However, the report also said that if the adjustment policy does not last for a long time, the growth of private consumption can be relatively stable The growth of urban income is positively related to foreign direct investment and export, but less to domestic investment, so both export and foreign direct investment will maintain a healthy momentum In addition, consumption may increase with the growth of urban residents' property According to some indicators, the report believes that China's exports will remain stable, at least in the first half of 2004, but the year-on-year growth rate will decrease - because of the large base The growth of import demand in the first half of 2004 may be higher than now According to the report, China will buy more American products before the US presidential election next year, and investment related imports will slow down from the second half of 2004 By contrast, the import of consumer goods and semi-finished products will not be greatly affected Moreover, with the acceleration of China's economic integration into the global economy, the report believes that China's investment slowdown will have an impact on the rest of the world According to various data analysis, the report believes that the faster China's policy adjustment comes this year, the greater the impact on global growth; the later the adjustment comes, the smaller the impact on global growth 5ij