China's inflation rate will not exceed 4% in 2004

Introduction: the overall situation of domestic food shortage has been determined in new page 1, and the price of grain has increased by about 5%; the price of the trade sector is affected by the price index of the means of production in the United States, with an estimated increase of 4%; the non trade sector is mainly affected by the employment pressure, with an estimated price increase of 1.4% 7m6 the debate on whether the economy is hot or cold, whether it is "generally normal" or "partially hot" in China's economic circle, We have gradually turned to the analysis of the overall price trend in 2004, and grasp the economic policy in 2004 Here, we focus on the analysis of the price trend in 2004, and predict the reasonable range of the target value of monetary policy regulation in the future with the possible negative situation in the economic growth 7m6 grain price drives CPI to rise 7m6 minus Chinese factors, At present, the global grain inventory is 6.5 percentage points lower than the historical average level of 20.4%; the proportion of global grain inventory in the current year's consumption decreased from 19.6% in 2001 to 13.9% in October 2003, down 5.7 percentage points, close to the lowest point of 13.2% in the past 10 years since 1995 The decline of grain inventory in the current year's consumption ratio will inevitably cause the increase of grain price, At the same time, it also indicates that under the condition of small price increase, there is limited room for China to expand imports to meet domestic demand 7m6 at the same time, since 1999, China's grain production has been reduced continuously, which can not meet the current year's consumption, resulting in a continuous and substantial decline in inventory In 2003, China's grain inventory was even less than 30% of the current year's consumption, which is at the lowest level since 1974, It is about half lower than the average level of 59.4% in the past 30 years Among them, the gap between supply and demand in 2003 is as high as 13.4% of the current year's consumption If 7m6 does not adjust the inventory, even if the grain consumption in 2004 does not increase, to ensure the stability of the current year's grain price, its output must increase by about 15.5% year on year However, according to historical data, China's largest harvest annual grain production increase is less than 11%, Even if it is the most optimistic assumption, the gap between supply and demand in 2004 still needs to continue to consume about 4 percentage points of inventory to meet the demand 7m6 considering that it will take more than 2 years for grain production to expand to meet the demand, and it will take longer to repair the inventory, so the price of grain will continue to rise in the next 2-3 years From another perspective, In addition, the decrease of grain production since 1999 may be related to the continuous downturn of grain price, the large number of farmers going out to work and the decrease of cultivated land Therefore, under the condition that the policy of returning farmland and farmers going out can not be effectively reversed, The price stimulus and other inputs needed to expand grain production may be greater 7m6 combined with the assessment of the international food and Agriculture Organization, the above prediction deviation mainly comes from the fact that the relevant data may overestimate the consumption of Chinese grain, thus underestimate the actual inventory level However, the lowest level of grain inventory in many years should be determined, If the historical average stock is used as the standard for forecasting, the rise of grain price is inevitable, and it is difficult to accurately grasp, perhaps only the extent of price rise 7m6 historical data since 1988 shows that in the year of grain price rise in China, the rise of grain price in the retail price index is about 3% - 5% Considering the current relatively low inventory level, The increase of grain price in 2004 may be 5% or higher Although the proportion of food in China's CPI will not be published and will be adjusted with the consumption structure from time to time, it is estimated that the increase of grain price in 2004 will promote the CPI to rise by 1.7 percentage points based on the proportion of about 1 / 3 The price of 7m6 trade sector is affected by the United States According to previous studies, the import and export trade volume in China has accounted for 60% of GDP, Under the condition that the exchange rate is basically stable, the price of the trade sector changes almost synchronously with the price of the means of production in the United States Since 1997, the trend of the price index of the means of production in China and the United States is very consistent 7m6 from the perspective of global supply, the price index of the means of production mainly examines the changes in the prices of energy and basic raw materials; from the perspective of global demand, Based on the analysis of supply and demand, if the supply contraction caused by the price rise of energy and other prices is the main reason for the price change, it is necessary to observe whether the output or trade volume is relatively decreased; if the output or trade volume is relatively increased, It can be generally determined that the expansion of demand is the main reason for the price change 7m6 in terms of energy prices, the global economic recovery is gradually accelerating, and the further expansion of demand will inevitably drive the price index of the means of production in the United States to continue to rise With the improvement of geopolitical conditions, it will help stabilize the energy price, and combine the historical data of the change of the price index of the means of production in the United States, From 2002 to 2003, the data increased by 4.7%, and it is estimated that the increase rate of the index in 2004 is about 5% 7m6 refers to the trend of the increase rate of the price index of China's means of production in the six or seven years, which is very consistent with that of the United States, and both are lower than the background of the United States by 1 percentage point It is estimated that the increase rate of the price index of China's means of production in 2004 is about 4% 7m6 non trade sector's increase rate is not big, generally speaking, 7m6, The price change of non trade sector mainly depends on the wage growth After 1998, China's economy is in the "7-up-8-down" growth range, but the wage growth rate is higher than the level before 1995 The reason for this is that the wage statistical caliber has changed For the convenience of research, We used dummy variables to adjust it (see chart) 7m6 research shows that, consistent with the theoretical expectation, the change of non trade sector price index basically keeps pace with the wage growth Considering that the current employment pressure is still huge, therefore, China's wage level will not rise significantly in 2004 If its rise rate remains at the average level since 1998, It is estimated that the price of non trade sector will increase by about 1.4% in 2004.7m6 based on the above discussion and the corresponding coefficient of trade and non trade sectors in CPI, it is estimated that the increase of core CPI in China in 2004 is close to 1.7%; if considering the change of grain price, the increase of CPI may reach 3.4%; in addition, the shortage of electric power supply and the tight railway transportation capacity in non trade sectors in 2004, If the electricity price and railway freight rate are adjusted, the increase rate of core CPI may be a little larger 7m6 therefore, in the absence of any abnormality in macroeconomic policies and other social aspects (such as SARS epidemic), the increase rate of core CPI in China in 2004 may be close to 2%; the increase rate of CPI may reach 3% - 4% Excerpt: financial times 7M6