China's grain output will increase steadily in the next 5-10 years

Introduction: new page 1 1 Since 1998, China's grain output has declined continuously due to various factors that have contributed to the continuous decline of total grain output in recent years In 1999-2001, the grain output decreased by 3.91 million tons, 46.21 million tons and 9.54 million tons, respectively, compared with the previous year, accumulatively by 59.66 million tons in three years In recent years, the decline of grain production is caused by many factors: (1) the cultivated land and the area of grain sowing are decreasing According to statistics, the annual grain planting area in China has been reduced from 110-113 million hectares for many years to below 107 million hectares In 2000, the cultivated land occupied 1.566 million hectares, and the cultivated land was supplemented by 291000 hectares, which is equal to the compensation In 2000, the cultivated land actually decreased by 1.275 million hectares From 1999 to 2001, China's grain sown area decreased by 7.777 million hectares, 626000 hectares, 4.698 million hectares and 2.383 million hectares, respectively, compared with the previous year The reasons for the decrease of cultivated land and grain sown area are as follows: first, the comparative benefit of grain planting is decreased, and farmers adjust and reduce grain sown area independently Since 1996, affected by the continuous decline of grain price and the high price of agricultural materials, machinery and labor force, the actual price of grain sold by farmers is close to or even lower than the cost, and the benefit of grain planting is obviously reduced In order to improve the income level, farmers independently transfer part of the cultivated land to economic crops such as fruits, tea and vegetables, or develop breeding industry Second, the state's policy of returning farmland to forests and grasslands will guide structural adjustment and reduce grain planting area Third, rural urbanization and major infrastructure projects occupy part of the cultivated land DDJ (2) farmland infrastructure is aging, and the ability of grain production to resist disasters is low Since the 1990s, the total amount of state budget investment in agriculture has increased, but the proportion of investment has not increased The state's investment in agriculture focuses on the management of large rivers and rivers and the construction of ecological environment The direct investment in farmland infrastructure is obviously less, the agricultural infrastructure lags behind, the inter field drainage and irrigation facilities are old and aging, and the agricultural disaster resistance capacity is weak To some extent, farmers still rely on the sky to eat During 1990-2000, the average annual disaster area was 54 million hectares, with 26.01 million hectares of disaster area, accounting for 48% of the affected area, and the disaster resistance rate was only 52% Since 1998, serious natural disasters have resulted in the reduction of food production DDJ (3) lack of scientific and technological reserves in the field of grain production, slow application of new technologies, new varieties and new models, which affected the overall level of grain production DDJ II Expert forecast of agricultural sector, 5-10 in the future In, China's grain output showed a sustained growth trend, but the growth rate decreased Based on the analysis of cultivated land, capital, labor, science and technology and other factors that affect the grain production capacity, the improvement of grain comprehensive production capacity mainly depends on the improvement of unit area output when the cultivated land resources are tightening and the investment level of capital and labor is declining Experts from the agricultural sector predict that during the Tenth Five Year Plan period, the average annual increase of grain output per hectare will be about 36 kg By 2005, the grain output per hectare will be up to 4680 kg, and the total output will be 520 million tons if the grain planting area is restored to 110 million ha From 2006 to 2015, the annual average grain output per hectare increased by 45 kg By 2015, the output per hectare will reach 5130 kg, and the total grain output will be about 565 million tons After 2015, the total grain output will reach 620 million tons, and it is impossible to see the continuous decline of grain output From the current development level of new variety breeding technology of three major grain varieties in China, this yield level is completely achievable For example, the general yield of zhongnongdao No.1, a Japonica Rice selected by the Institute of Agricultural Sciences of China, is about 8250 kg / ha; the general yield of Zhongjian 100, an early indica rice selected by the Institute of Agricultural Sciences of China, is 6000-6750 kg / ha; the general yield of d you 68, a middle rice developed by the Rice Research Institute of Sichuan Agricultural University, is 8250-9750 kg/ The average yield of "Huayu No.4" maize trial bred by Maize Research Office of Huazhong Agricultural University is 7272 kg / ha; the average yield of "Xinchun No.6" spring small table bred by nuclear Institute of Xinjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences is 6775.5 kg / ha DDJ III experts from the grain sector analyzed that China's comprehensive grain production capacity has been basically stable at around 500 million tons since the founding of the people's Republic of China, and China's grain production has been increasing periodically, especially since the reform and opening up in 1978, through the reform of rural production relations, especially in 1998 Since, the grain circulation system reform with "three policies and one reform" as the main content has been carried out The state-owned grain purchase and sale enterprises insist on purchasing the surplus grain of farmers according to the protection price, which greatly mobilizes the enthusiasm of farmers in grain production, promotes the overall development of agriculture and grain production, and steadily improves the comprehensive production capacity of grain In the six years since 1996, when the total grain output of our country leaped over 500 million tons, the grain output has stabilized at about 450-500 million tons In the 20 years from 1978 to 1998, food production increased by 63.8% With the improvement of the comprehensive production capacity, the frequency and degree of grain production will be reduced, although there will still be periodic fluctuations DDJ 4 At present, there are many favorable factors in the field of grain circulation (1) the reform of grain circulation system is further deepened, the grain macro-control system is gradually improved, the grain market system is gradually standardized, and the protection of agricultural production and farmers' interests is further strengthened This has a positive effect on protecting farmers' enthusiasm for grain production, stabilizing and improving the comprehensive production capacity of grain DDJ (2) strengthened the protection of basic farmland According to the latest data provided by the Ministry of land and resources, 1.714 billion mu of basic farmland protection area has been adjusted nationwide, including 1.635 billion mu of basic farmland area, and the protection rate has increased from 77.01% to 83.64% With the gradual opening of the grain market and the continuous improvement of the state's attention to food security, the protection of basic farmland will continue to increase, the comprehensive production capacity of grain will gradually stabilize and improve, and the grain output will show a steady upward trend DDJ (3) the implementation of the policy of returning farmland to forests in the western region has improved the ecological environment and is conducive to the increase of grain production In the western region, the ecological environment is poor, the quality of cultivated land is poor, and the grain yield is very low The implementation of the policy of returning farmland to forest has reduced the area of grain planting, but the total grain output has not decreased much On the contrary, due to the conversion of farmland to forest, the ecological environment will be greatly improved, and the climatic conditions will be more suitable for grain cultivation and yield increase DDJ (IV) agricultural science and technology research has been further strengthened, and the science and technology extension system has been continuously improved With the gradual popularization and application of scientific research achievements related to the improvement of grain varieties, ecological agriculture and agricultural biotechnology, the situation of increasing grain output mainly by expanding the planting area and increasing the rate of multiple cropping has been improved for a long time, and the overall level of grain per unit yield is on the rise According to reports, the breeding of super rice in China has made important progress Academician Yuan Longping's breeding of Super Hybrid Rice has been successfully carried out in a small area, with a per unit yield of 12000kg / ha At present, it is being promoted in the field In addition, due to the improvement of education level and the popularization of agricultural science and technology, farmers' grain planting skills will continue to improve, and the organizational form of grain production and circulation will also change significantly, and the grain output will have a major breakthrough DDJ (5) countries have increased their investment in agricultural infrastructure construction, and their ability to resist disasters is increasing The possibility of reducing grain production due to disasters is gradually reduced 5 Some suggestions for stabilizing and increasing grain production (1) while gradually releasing the grain market in the expense area, the main grain production area should continue to implement the policy of purchasing surplus grain of farmers according to the protection price according to the central plan, continuously improve the income of farmers' grain production and protect their enthusiasm for grain production The level and range of protection price can be adjusted according to the actual situation of grain production and circulation Or learn from the experience of developed countries, on the premise of not violating WTO rules, implement agricultural subsidies to protect the comprehensive production capacity of grain DDJ (2) improve the understanding of the connotation of structural adjustment and protect basic farmland In recent years, the common practice in structural adjustment is to reduce the area of grain sown and expand the planting of vegetables, fruits and other economic crops According to the survey of the National Bureau of statistics and Jilin provincial agricultural survey team, in 2001, the planting area of corn in Jilin Province decreased by nearly 10% compared with the previous years, and the planting area of vegetables, fruits and other economic crops increased by about 80% The author believes that the real connotation of structural adjustment should be to optimize the structure of grain varieties, rather than to compress the grain planting area Therefore, the focus of structural adjustment should be on "optimizing" rather than simply "reducing" In particular, the main grain producing areas should be market-oriented, adjust measures to local conditions, strengthen the optimization of grain varieties and quality, pay attention to the improvement of grain yield per unit area, so as to reduce the cost of grain production and improve the efficiency of grain production DDJ (3) do a good job in the construction of production bases in major grain production areas, increase investment in agricultural infrastructure, improve grain production conditions and increase grain output We should make full use of the relevant rules of the WTO, especially the "green box" policy of the state to protect agriculture and food production, learn from the experience of developed countries, increase the construction of production bases in major food production areas, and protect and improve food production capacity DDJ (4) strengthen scientific research and technology popularization and application, improve grain quality and unit yield level, and reduce production cost In recent years, there are not many breakthroughs in the research of food crops, and the farmers urgently need new varieties, new technologies and new instruments The state should increase investment in research and development of grain crops, concentrate funds and talents, vigorously carry out research on new varieties, technologies and instruments of grain crops, and strive to make breakthroughs in the short term At the same time, we should strengthen the research of quality monitoring and the construction of technology promotion team to ensure the continuous improvement of grain yield and product quality DDJ (5) improve and standardize the national grain reserve system, establish the national grain early warning system, timely regulate and control the grain market In order to prevent the decline of grain output from causing large fluctuations in the grain market and price, we should improve and standardize the national grain reserve system, and give full play to the effective regulatory role of the National Grain Reserve on the market At the same time, we should establish a food early warning system, determine the food warning line, and give an alarm when the food supply is close to the warning line, so as to take timely measures to develop food production DDJ