China's grain has transited from oversupply to tight supply and demand

Introduction: Recently, the State Food Administration held a national food statistics work conference in Urumqi, Xinjiang China Grain Reserve Management Corporation, China grain, oil and food import and Export Group Co., Ltd., Zhonggu grain and Oil Group Co., Ltd., the Department of economic construction of the Ministry of Finance and the grain administrative departments of more than 30 provinces, cities and autonomous regions attended the conference Zeng Liying, deputy director of the State Grain Administration, attended the meeting and made a more objective and pertinent analysis of the domestic grain supply and demand situation Zeng Liying pointed out that after four consecutive years of harvest from 1996 to 1999, China's grain output in 2000 decreased to 921.3 billion jin, and the gap in production and consumption began to appear in that year After three years, the gap in production and demand gradually expanded, and it has been made up by digging inventory for four consecutive years At present, China's grain has transited from oversupply to tight supply and demand The overall judgment on the situation of grain supply and demand in 2004 is: the output shows a restorative growth, the consumption grows steadily, and there is still a big gap between production and demand in that year; the import increases, the export decreases, and the net import increases significantly; the national grain inventory is abundant, and the market supply is guaranteed, but the grain price rises steadily 1 It is expected that grain production will increase and consumption will increase steadily, and there will still be a large gap in production and demand in that year In order to restore and develop grain production, this year, the state introduced a series of preferential policies and measures to support grain production, such as "three supplements and one reduction", which greatly mobilized the enthusiasm of farmers in production, and grain production began to show a restorative growth According to the survey of the National Bureau of statistics, this year's summer grain output is 2021 billion jin, an increase of 9.3 billion jin or 4.8% over the previous year The yield of early rice was 64.2 billion jin, an increase of 5.2 billion jin or 8.8% over the previous year At present, the growth of autumn grain is good If there is no major natural disaster in the later period of autumn grain growth, the annual grain output is expected to exceed the target of 910 billion jin In 2004, the grain consumption was about 980 billion jin, and the gap between production and demand was about 70 billion jin 2 Grain import is larger than export This year, according to the new changes in the situation of grain supply and demand, the state has adopted a policy of controlling export and moderately importing grain According to customs statistics, from January to July 2004, a total of 31.5 billion jin of imported grain was imported, including 21.5 billion jin of soybeans and 6.9 billion jin of wheat; 6.1 billion jin of exported grain was imported, more than 25.4 billion jin of imported grain was exported According to the preliminary analysis, the net import of grain in the whole year will increase significantly, among which soybean will still maintain a high import quantity and wheat will also reach about 15 billion jin 3 At present, the national grain inventory is relatively abundant, which can ensure the market supply throughout the year, but there are contradictions between varieties and regional structure From the perspective of production and inventory distribution, the climate and geological conditions of North and South China are quite different Grain production is restricted by regional economy and natural conditions, with obvious regional characteristics China's wheat production is mainly concentrated in Hebei, Shandong, Henan and Huanghuaihai regions, accounting for about 68% of the country's total output; corn production is mainly concentrated in the three northeastern provinces, Inner Mongolia and Hebei, Shandong and Henan, accounting for about 64% of the country's total output; soybean production is mainly concentrated in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia, accounting for about 50% of the country's total output; rice production is mainly concentrated in the two lakes, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Guangxi Sichuan and other provinces account for about 68% of the country's total production The advantages of grain production are obvious In line with grain production, the national grain inventory in the main grain producing areas is large and accounts for a high proportion, while that in the main selling areas is small and accounts for a low proportion 4 Grain prices are rising steadily After seven or eight consecutive years of low prices, grain prices have rebounded since last year, especially two large increases since the fourth quarter In late February 2004, the market price of Japonica rice increased by nearly 30% in a short period of time Affected by this, rice prices in other regions have also increased more Wheat and corn prices have also risen to varying degrees But in recent months, the market prices around the country have been basically stable After the opening of grain purchase market, the trend of grain price will be mainly affected by the supply-demand relationship, grain production cost, international market supply and demand and price changes and other factors From the current supply and demand trend of the international grain market, according to the monthly report of the U.S Department of agriculture in September, it is predicted that in 2003 / 2004, the global grain output will be about 1.962 billion tons, the consumption will be about 1.968 billion tons, and the gap between production and demand will be about 06 million tons; the world grain inventory will be reduced to 337 million tons, which is at a low level for many years, the global grain supply and demand is still tight, and the grain price will be Maintain at a high level Considering the large gap of domestic grain production and demand, the continuous decline of inventory, the gradual tightening of grain supply and demand and the higher price of grain in the international market, the preliminary analysis shows that the domestic grain trade will run at a higher price in the second half of 2004 Due to the unbalanced distribution of grain stocks and transportation constraints, it is not excluded that grain prices in some regions fluctuate significantly in a short period of time Zeng Liying stressed that in order to ensure the basic stability of grain supply and price, and ensure the national food security, all regions should do the following work: first, further strengthen measures, mobilize the enthusiasm of the main production areas and farmers to grow grain, promote the recovery and development of grain production, and realize the basic balance of grain production and demand in that year as soon as possible Second, we should stabilize the market price of grain at a reasonable level and create a favorable environment for the development of grain production Third, we should make full use of the two markets and two kinds of resources, and do a good job of grain surplus and shortage and variety adjustment through import and export Fourth, we will continue to improve the regulation system of grain reserves and enhance the capacity of macro-control Fifth, we will strengthen market analysis and prediction, establish and improve food security early warning systems and emergency response mechanisms, and maintain basic stability in the food market Sixthly, we should continue to give full play to the main channel role of state-owned grain enterprises and actively grasp the source of grain Seventh, further promote production and marketing cooperation, strengthen market supervision and improve the grain market system