China's feed grain consumption is expected to exceed 170 million tons this year

Introduction: according to the latest report issued by the national feed Work Office of the Ministry of agriculture, the total consumption of feed grains in China will exceed 170 million tons in 2004, and the total output of industrial feed products will exceed 93 million tons In this paper, the total amount of feed grains and the consumption of industrial feed grains in China are compared and analyzed It is found that only about 1 / 4 feed grains are directly used for feed processing at present, and the other 3 / 4 feed grains are processed by the farms themselves or fed by the farmers directly, which indicates that the potential of feed industry in the future is huge Based on the analysis of the consumption trend of livestock products, the paper points out that with the continuous improvement of the living standards and the improvement of the dietary structure of the whole country, the consumption market of livestock products has great potential for growth, and the livestock products of our country have strong international competitiveness, and the continuous growth of livestock products consumption will promote the development of animal husbandry From the analysis of grain production situation, the report points out that China's grain production, especially corn, does not have comparative advantages, but relying on the huge consumer market, as long as practical measures are taken, there should be something to do At present, China's feed grain production is speeding up to the direction of regionalization, specialization and quality In the future, feed corn production will rely on regionalization, rely on scientific and technological progress, and vigorously develop special corn and high-quality corn In particular, the State Council decided to launch the "excellent grain project" in 2004 to further mobilize the enthusiasm of grain farmers in major grain production areas It is predicted that in the next five years, the proportion of special corn in China is expected to reach more than 80%, the per unit yield and total yield of corn will be increased by about 20%, the feed corn will all reach the national standard above level II, and the water content of corn in the harvest period in Northeast and Inner Mongolia will be reduced by 3-4 percentage points This will help to improve the international competitiveness and overall economic benefits of corn According to the analysis of the import and export of feed grain in the report, the import of feed grain in China will probably increase in the future The demand for corn in feed industry and animal husbandry is increasing Although the domestic corn supply is increasing year by year, the growth rate is less than the development speed of feed industry and animal husbandry In addition, the domestic corn production cost remains high, the uniformity is poor, and the comprehensive competitiveness is weak Feed industry is one of the industries with earlier market economy mechanism, which is sensitive to the difference of raw material quality and price In this situation, the eastern coastal areas are likely to reduce production costs through import, and the increase of corn import is inevitable The report predicts that the market price of feed grain in China may keep stable or increase slightly in 2004 In the 1990s, the world average price of corn futures was 100.11 ± 17.38 USD / ton The annual decline rate of corn futures market price is 2.2% Since the 21st century, the price of corn futures market in the world remains low With the rapid development of grain trade, China's corn price will be in line with the world's corn price level Although the domestic corn price has increased this year, there is still a large gap from the historical highest price, which belongs to the price recovery Under the trend of slow growth of corn price in the international market, it is impossible for the corn price in China to rise substantially