China's autumn harvest this year may not slow down the CPI growth in the second half of the year

Introduction: according to the National Bureau of statistics, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 5.3% year-on-year in August, lower than the expected 5.4%, the same as that in July Among them, the tail raising factor was 3.7%, and the new price rising factor was 1.6% Compared with last month, CPI rose 0.7% in that month From January to August, CPI rose 4.0% compared with the same period last year The basic reason for the continuous high CPI is driven by food prices Because, according to the data in August, except for the increase of 31.8% in the price of grain, 22.5% in the price of grease, 23.5% in the price of meat and products, and 30.3% in the price of fresh eggs, the prices of clothing and other living services are in a downward trend Therefore, in promoting this round of inflation, rising food prices are the leading force Because food prices account for 1 / 3 of the CPI, while the price rose by 13.9% in August, which only drove the CPI up by 4.6% That is to say, only about 0.7% of the factors that drove the CPI up by 5.3% in that month were caused by non food factors In this case, as long as the domestic food supply-demand relationship changes, the inflationary pressure will naturally ease in the second half of the year According to the prediction of relevant departments, this year's autumn harvest in China is expected, and the CPI rising trend led by grain prices is expected to be sluggish at the time of autumn harvest In the second half of the year, CPI growth will slow down and inflation will also ease as the leading force driving CPI growth is about to weaken So, did August's CPI show "the last crazy"? Will inflation really slow down in the second half of the year? Ordinary people will feel that in the past one or two months, not only the price of food has risen rapidly, but also the price of fuel oil and water and electricity has risen faster than that of CPI this month But these are actually reflected in the data released by the National Bureau of statistics In addition, after macro-control from April to may, the prices of some overheated products were depressed, but they began to rebound after July to August It should not be said that the prices of products with very short resources, such as energy and electricity, are also rising for general products, such as cement It can be said that although the market competition of these products is very fierce, the transmission of price rise is not easy, but if these products rise in an all-round way, it may also be transmitted to consumer goods Also, how many factors will be realized that the rise will alleviate? As far as the current situation is concerned, with this year's autumn harvest, the situation of food supply and demand will improve After the autumn harvest, the rapid rise of grain prices in recent months will be stopped Is the increase of domestic grain in the past year only caused by the change of grain supply and demand? What's more, in the rise of grain prices for more than a year, have the vast majority of farmers really benefited from this rise in grain prices? If this is not the case, if the profit makers are more middlemen, then these middlemen can also control the rising trend of food prices after the change of food supply and demand What's more, under the political guidance of the central government's emphasis on solving the "three rural" problem, the improvement of farmers' income is the core of the "three rural" problem, and the level of grain price determines the level of farmers' income to a certain extent Coupled with the rapid increase in the prices of agricultural means of production and electric power this year, it is unlikely that domestic grain prices will fall rapidly In addition, in the first few months of this year, the prices of agricultural products generally rose rapidly, especially that of food, which rose more than 30% in five consecutive months However, there is always a lag in the price of agricultural products to be transmitted to the food price Especially in the breeding industry, the transmission speed of grain price rise is even slower Therefore, if the high CPI in recent months is the result of food price leading, then the situation is unlikely to ease in the short term Moreover, although housing consumption is not included in the CPI weight, due to the double-digit growth of domestic house prices, it not only directly affects the prices of consumer goods, but also the rapid rise of house prices will inevitably be transmitted to the prices of consumer goods directly and indirectly For example, the rise of house price will inevitably lead to the rise of the prices of various construction materials, which will lead to the strong demand for related goods, the rise of prices, the rise of wages of workers in corresponding industries, etc These factors will affect the inflation rate It can be said that as long as domestic house prices have been rising, it is unlikely that domestic CPI will ease Domestic monetary authorities should pay more attention to the impact of rising domestic house prices on inflation At the same time, how to improve the weight of current CPI should also be considered by monetary authorities In short, as far as the current situation is concerned, it is questionable how effective it is to measure the current domestic inflation rate with a very outdated CPI index And even with the outdated CPI standards, the conditions for high CPI to slow down in the near future are not very sufficient Facing the high CPI, it not only causes the residents to save large negative interest rates, but also makes the domestic real estate bubble bigger and bigger What can the government do in these areas?