China's Agricultural Outlook Report: Pork production is expected to fall 7.5% YoY this year

The China Agricultural Outlook Report (2020-2029), released at the 2020 China Agricultural Outlook Conference (7th), predicts that by 2020, the number of pigs produced nationwide will be 501.49 million, down 7.8% year-on-year, while pork production will be 39.34 million tons, down 7.5% year-on-year MEM According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Agriculture agricultural market analysis and early warning team pork chief analyst Zhou Lin deputy researcher, in the fourth quarter of 2019, pig production capacity showed a rising trend, due to the sharp decline in the previous production capacity, pork production will still be reduced in 2020, the end of the year production capacity basically returned to near-normal level s; The number of pigs produced in 2020 is expected to reach 501.49 million, down 7.8% YoY, while pork production is expected to reach 39.34 million tons, down 7.5% YoY overall, pork supply remains tight in 2020 and prices are running at a high level MEM for the recovery of domestic pig production capacity, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Agriculture, animal husbandry and veterinary department deputy director Wei Hongyang said at a press conference held by the State Council's joint defense and control mechanism on April 19, from the first quarter of the situation, pig production recovery continued to be good In March, the pig stock continued to grow month-on-month, by 2.8%, the sixth consecutive month of growth, while newborn piglets continued to grow by 7.3%, the second consecutive month of growth, and the pig stock increased by 3.6% month-on-month, the second consecutive month of growth Growth in these three areas is not only continuity, but also accelerating MEM China Agricultural Outlook Report (2020-2029) predicts that in the short term, the scale of pig farming in China will be further improved and pig production capacity will be restored rapidly; It is estimated that in 2021 the number of pigs produced is 635.3 million, the production of pork will reach 50 million tons, the number of pigs produced in 2025 will reach 71.832 million, the pork production will reach 57.28 million tons, and the output of pigs will reach 73.918 million in 2029, and the production of pork will reach 59.72 million tons MEM pork consumption, affected by the outbreak of new crown pneumonia, outdoor consumption in the first and second quarters of this year decreased sharply, and into household consumption Because of the high price of pork, household consumption is somewhat inhibited, especially in rural areas Overall, pork consumption is expected to be 42.06 million tons this year, down 5.6% YoY, while per capita pork consumption is 29.9 kg, down 5.9% YoY MEM pork trade, affected by the tight domestic pork supply, the impact of the outbreak of new crown pneumonia at the beginning of the year, domestic and foreign pork price differences and other factors, pork imports will continue to increase this year, the annual import volume is expected to reach 2.8 million tons, an increase of 32.7% In the future, with the recovery of domestic pig production capacity, pork self-sufficiency rate gradually rebounded, pork imports will show a steady decline, the annual import volume is expected to stabilize between 1 million and 1.2 million tons the impact of the global spread of MEM's new coronapneumonia epidemic on China's pig industry In terms of production, there are great differences and uncertainties in the resumption of production and production, especially in pig slaughter enterprises and logistics enterprises, and there is also uncertainty in pig production In terms of consumption, the outbreak of new crown pneumonia has a greater impact on domestic and foreign consumption, according to incomplete statistics, January-February comprehensive loss rate of 95%, the timing and degree of food and beverage recovery there is greater uncertainty, and thus affect market consumption On the trade side, the outbreak of xinguan pneumonia has a direct impact on the slaughter ingressofation of pork and related products, logistics operations and the degree of port opening, which will directly affect the volume of pork trade in China In terms of price, the control of the global outbreak of new crown pneumonia will affect feed costs and breeding costs, and ultimately affect domestic and foreign pork prices MEM
(Author: Li Lianmin)