China's accession to WTO: more opportunities than pressures in agriculture

OA show ('918 '); China's agricultural population is as high as 70%, and agriculture has been playing an important role in the national economy China's accession to the WTO means facing the competition in the international market Can China's relatively backward agriculture adapt to this competition? In this regard, the reporter interviewed Dr Lu Feng, deputy director of China Economic Research Center, Peking University According to Dr Lu Feng, the impact of China's accession to the WTO on agriculture needs to be analyzed from an objective and comprehensive perspective The commitment of China's agricultural opening mainly includes reducing agricultural tariff and market access For example, China's agricultural tariff should be reduced to about 17%, and the tax rate on agricultural products in the United States should be reduced to 14.5%, about 20-30% lower than the current tariff level; some agricultural products, such as meat and fruit, should be reduced by about half to two-thirds This will increase the pressure on China's grain production But the pressure is not as dangerous as some people think In terms of the contents of agricultural commitments listed in the "Protocol", considering the adjustment of domestic production, the degree of concession of different products is also different and generally moderate Therefore, as long as the response is appropriate, the agricultural agreement will not endanger the food security of our country, and will not bring disaster to our agriculture and rural economy First, in the short term, the most closely related concession to food security is that the ceiling of food import quota was raised to more than 21 million tons in 2004, which is undoubtedly affordable First of all, from the perspective of historical comparison, the figure of more than 21 million tons is roughly equivalent to the historical highest level of 20.81 million tons imported in 1995 At that time, it did not endanger China's food security If we import the same amount of food five years later, although the impact can not be ignored, it obviously will not cause substantial harm to food security Secondly, China published a white paper on food issues in 1996, which set the 5% import rate as one of the policy objectives The annual import of more than 21 million tons of food is roughly equivalent to 4% - 5% of the current annual consumption of China, which does not exceed the original policy objectives In addition, from the perspective of foreign exchange payment capacity, it is estimated that the foreign exchange used for the import of more than 21 million tons of grain should not exceed 4 billion US dollars, which accounts for about 2.6% of China's current annual export earnings According to the growth trend of China's export, the proportion of foreign exchange used for net import of grain in the export earnings in 2004 should be smaller Second, smuggling of some food products has been prohibited for many times Last year, more efforts were made to crack down on smuggling, and results were achieved However, according to the current national conditions, as long as there is a high price difference under the protection of high tariffs and quotas, smuggling is difficult to eradicate Therefore, to some extent, tariff reduction and quota increase replace smuggling import with legal import Third, at present, China is in a situation of relative surplus of grain supply and demand, which has a positive effect on digesting the external impact of agricultural opening-up Taking the import quota of bulk agricultural products as an example, the tariff quota is only an import opportunity It is promised that the annual import quota of grains and other grains is not equal to the actual imported grains, and the amount of imports will ultimately be determined by the comparative level of domestic and foreign market prices Under the situation of excess supply and demand in the domestic market, the impact of lower market prices on overseas grain imports can play a supporting role Lu Feng believes that some people only understand agriculture as food, and that it is one-sided to think that agriculture will suffer as much as the loss of food after China's accession to the WTO Agricultural products are not only limited to food, but also have a competitive advantage in some large labor-intensive food products In the past decade, China's food exports are far higher than imports Oil, sugar, fruits, vegetables and other agricultural economic crops have strong competitive advantages in the international market Vegetable production is also a highly competitive industry developed in recent years Its export volume is more than 30 times of the import volume and the export amount is more than 50 times of the import amount In terms of price, the price of main fruits in China is lower than that in the international market at present The domestic market price of apple, pear and orange is 40-70% lower than that in the international market, which has a strong competitive advantage Therefore, "WTO entry" means new opportunities for many producers or potential producers of labor-intensive products, which can promote China's agriculture to adjust its economic structure as soon as possible
After comprehensive analysis, it can be seen that there are three characteristics in the structural distribution of the profit loss and adjustment pressure of agricultural expansion and opening up after China's accession to the WTO: first, due to the relative scarcity of per capita land resources in China, under the open trade environment, land intensive products such as grain and oil and large agricultural products lacking advantages are under great pressure; second, the adjustment pressure is relatively concentrated in the middle in the region Third, the adjustment pressure is relatively concentrated on the rural residents with low income level Lu Feng believes that to meet the challenge is to make agriculture adapt to WTO rules as soon as possible First of all, the agricultural system cannot wait for opportunities It needs reform, change the control and monopoly of food, and adjust the industrial structure of agriculture If 70% of the cultivated land needs to be planted with grain, it will not achieve the effect of structural adjustment In the 1980s, we talked about adjusting the structure, in the 1990s, and now we talk about adjusting the structure But only if this process becomes a market-oriented process, and according to the differences between the market and resources, we can promote the production and export of agricultural products with comparative advantages, which will have good results Secondly, in addition to promoting reform, the work of government departments also includes improving rural education and providing information If the government's work is in place, the production, supply and marketing are well integrated and industrialization is formed, it will be easier for farmers to adapt There are some disadvantages of farmers, such as low level of education, difficulty in information collection, etc But they also have their own advantages, that is, they will not rely on some old system, they will not ask for policies, and they have strong initiative and flexibility to adjust to the market Relevant departments should select pillar industries and leading products with advantages in production and high industrial relevance for key support, so as to better adapt China's agricultural products to domestic and international market competition In addition, in order to adjust the structure of national income, it is necessary to consider appropriate income transfer payments to regions with larger income impact through fiscal redistribution, so as to alleviate the impact of local Of course, income transfer payment should not be simply understood as a means of agricultural protection, but should be combined with expanding education investment, starting rural market and rural economic system reform China feed industry information network ZNC (author:)