China keeps "unsubscribing", and imported corn suddenly "no longer fragrant"?

 　　According to data released by the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture, as of the week before April 15, the annual output of soybeans exported from the United States to China in 2020 or 2021 decreased by 51,000 tons
.
In contrast, China's purchase of old season corn from the United States has also reduced by 55,000 tons
.
nCs China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In the following week, China did not continue to import US soybeans, but purchased 264,000 tons in the previous week
.
In the following week, China also cancelled the purchase of 120,000 tons of old season corn in the United States
.
nCs China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In view of this situation, the United States did not expect China to be so straightforward
.
It is worried that China will continue to reduce the purchase of crops in the future
.
nCs China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Corn orders decreased but other crops were purchasednCs China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Overall, although China reduced its purchases of corn that week, corn sales in April were good
.
In addition, China purchased 65,000 tons of American wheat during this period, which was recently produced, and 130,000 tons of sorghum
.
nCs China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　According to Bloomberg's analysis, China's current purchases of American goods and services are 1/3 of the previously promised purchases
.
Since the signing of the agreement between China and the United States in January 2020, China’s procurement has brought the United States 123 billion yuan in revenue, which is equivalent to one-third of the United States’ procurement target of 3,781 yuan in one year
.
nCs China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The U.
S.
is very worried about China's sudden cancellation of ordersnCs China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The surge in Chinese procurement has not only brought economic income to the United States, but also other benefits to the United States
.
As China’s demand for feed began to rise last year, this directly led to the Chicago corn futures reaching its highest point in many years
.
However, over time, China's demand for corn has been declining every week, which has also led to a decline in U.
S.
exports
.
nCs China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　American traders are very worried about this and have begun to actively seek breakthroughs
.
At the same time, they are still predicting what China will do
.
Does China plan to move its purchases to the next marketing quarter? Or is it canceling orders altogether? The United States is particularly concerned about this because once imports are reduced, Chicago futures will fall sharply
.
nCs China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Regarding the reason for return, there are mainly 2 aspects:nCs China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　1.
The price of imported corn has risen sharply, while the price of domestic corn has continued to fall.
nCs China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　On the one hand, international food prices have risen due to the increase in overall commodity prices, of which corn has the largest increase; on the other hand, this year, the United States and other places have been affected by droughts and reduced planting areas.
Expectations for corn prices continue to rise, which has triggered prices.
Rise
.
nCs China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In addition, coupled with the significant surge in international freight, the cost of imported corn has risen sharply
.
nCs China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　2.
Decline in domestic demandnCs China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　On the one hand, deep processing continues to be sluggish.
On the other hand, the production capacity of live pigs has fully recovered, the price of live pigs has fallen, and the breeding industry has suffered a total loss.
Therefore, the demand for feed has fallen sharply
.
nCs China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The overall market demand for corn is far less robust than in the first half of the year.
Under this circumstance, imported corn is naturally not fragrant
.
nCs China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Will imports increase in the second half of the year?nCs China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In the first half of the year, due to the strong recovery of the domestic aquaculture industry, feed demand surged
.
In order to stabilize feed consumption, China began to increase reserves
.
Therefore, there were two major actions in the first half of the year: one is to import a large amount of corn, soybeans, wheat and other grains; the other is to adjust the price and demand of domestic corn
.
nCs China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　After half a year of adjustment, by July, the overall situation of domestic supply and demand has been basically determined, and the impact of international food prices on China is relatively limited
.
nCs China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In terms of breeding, the price of live pigs is at a relatively low level.
After collection and storage, the price has gradually stabilized
.
In the second half of the year, the overall recovery will be slow, so feed demand will gradually decline
.
nCs China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In view of the steady decline in domestic total demand in the second half of the year, the rising international corn is no longer the first choice
.
Therefore, the quantity of imported corn may be significantly reduced in the second half of the year
.
nCs China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　How will domestic corn gonCs China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　At present, due to the influence of the substitution of imported corn and wheat in the early stage, the domestic corn market has sufficient supply, coupled with the general decline in deep processing demand, corn is difficult to receive strong support, and the decline in feed demand is replaced by wheat, and the overall supply and demand are very loose
.
nCs China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Coupled with the high inventory of imported grain in the south, it is difficult to transport a large amount of corn from the main producing areas in the north, and the transportation of grain from the north to the south is blocked
.
nCs China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Therefore, from a long-term perspective, the overall decline in corn is stable, but there will be a small climax when corn is on the market in the second half of the fall, but it may fall again after the climax
.
nCs China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry