China feed market will be tight from the fourth quarter

Introduction: according to Shenzhen on September 13, a senior industry official said on Thursday that China will face a tight supply of feed from the fourth quarter of this year to the beginning of next year, due to the extremely dry weather in summer in the United States, which leads to a decrease in soybean supply, while China is the largest soybean importer BDE Chinese soybean meal prices rose to a record high in August, driven by gains in US corn and soybean prices Further tightening of soybean meal supply at the end of this year will push up pork prices and drive inflation higher Guo Feng, deputy general manager of China Textile & oil import and export company in BDE, said that from October this year to March 2013, China's soybean import is expected to not exceed 25 million tons, down 3.2 million tons from the same period last year Soybean imports are likely to decline the most in October, with the volume expected to fall to about 2.5 million tons, down from 3.8 million tons in the same period in 2011 BDE "but soybean meal consumption is still strong during this period.. Pig supply will remain high," he said at an industry conference in Shenzhen During the period from October to march of BDE, China's domestic soybean crushing volume is about 28 million tons, and the soybean import volume is 25 million tons, which means that the crushing plant needs to establish soybean and soybean meal inventory BDE Guofeng said tight supply will not ease until South American soybeans reach the market early next year BDE traders said concerns about food inflation could prompt the government to start releasing stocks of soybeans and canola oil China will announce a new leader in October, before the government will ensure stable food prices Since the end of last year, China has held soybean auctions every two weeks In May this year, the number of bids soared due to the increase of import prices At the August 16 auction, soybean sales reached a record high of 402375 tons "Rising prices have prompted the government to release 2010 / 11 soybean reserves," said Eric Zhu, President of BDE, a grain trading company BDE traders expect national soybean stocks of up to 10 million tons In the current auction, the government plans to sell 3 million tons of soybeans, with 2.64 million tons so far BDE soybean oil market has a better supply, because the government has a large amount of rapeseed oil in the edible oil reserve, which can be put on the market at any time BDE Malaysia and Indonesia are equally well supplied with alternative palm oil BDE China's state-owned edible oil reserves are expected to be 5.5 million tons, and industry insiders expect the government to release some of its stocks to help curb rising prices According to BDE, China's soybean meal demand for animal husbandry will increase by 3% in the 2012 / 13 market year starting from October, lower than the growth forecast of 7.3% this year, and the soybean import will reach 60 million tons in 2012 / 13 BDE's demand for edible oil is expected to increase by 1% in 2012 / 13, while this year's growth rate will be flat BDe