Changing the pattern of supply and demand, changing the main tone of behavior under agricultural products

Introduction: the soybean market will continue to decline In 2012, the domestic and foreign soybean market will first develop and then suppress, and the weather and supply speculation in North and South America will dominate the market trend The annual market is divided into four stages around supply speculation The first stage is the bull market driven by the weather and production speculation in South America from the beginning of the year to the middle of April The second stage is the bull market from April to the beginning of June to adjust the market The third stage is the bull market accelerated by the weather speculation in the United States from the beginning of June to the beginning of September The fourth stage is under the vibration after the end of the bull market from the beginning of September to the end of the year Down market Analysis of potential factors affecting the fundamentals of tu8 1 Weather and supply speculation in South America will become a key factor Soybean production in South America in 2011 / 2012 will be significantly reduced, while soybean production in the United States in 2011 / 2012 will also be reduced, leading to a tightening of global soybean supply Therefore, soybean supply in South America in 2012 / 2013 will determine the global new year soybean supply and demand pattern Therefore, speculation on the weather and supply in South America before the first quarter of 2013 will be a key factor affecting the soybean market The logistics and transportation of exporting countries will be the potential risk and obstacle in the later stage Although it is expected that the new beans in South America will have a high yield, the logistics and transportation problems that may occur after the new beans are listed will still trouble the market In terms of tu8 Brazil, port congestion occurs every year when grain is listed on the market Although infrastructure construction has improved transportation conditions in recent years, it still cannot guarantee smooth transportation There are also annual strike threats in Argentina, including those caused by conflicts between port workers, truck drivers and the government and farmers, which will hinder the transportation of South American new beans when they are listed In case of this, global demand will continue to rely on soybeans for a period of time, which will cause global soybean supply to remain tight in the first quarter of 2013 However, the continuous dry weather since this summer has caused severe winter water level drop in some parts of the Mississippi River in the United States, which has begun to affect the grain transportation in the United States at the end of the year The transportation bottleneck of global exporting countries may become one of the key factors affecting the agricultural products (5.82, - 0.13, - 2.18%) market next year In the spring of next year, the soybean planting area will increase Following the decline of soybean planting area in 2012, the market expects that the soybean planting area in the United States will recover in 2013 In December, Goldman Sachs released a new report saying that if weather conditions were good in 2013, U.S soybean supply would recover significantly, leading to a sharp fall in prices in the second half of the year Goldman Sachs estimates that the U.S soybean planting area will be 79 million acres next year, an increase of 1.8 million acres over this year If the yield per mu is close to the trend line level of 43.8 Pu, it will be enough to push the soybean yield to a record high, reaching nearly 3.4 billion PU However, Goldman Sachs also reminded that the key factor determining the direction of soybean price is still the pace of soybean export If the bad weather in the South American soybean producing areas threatens the soybean planting and growth and delays the harvest and export at the beginning of next year, it will lead to further decline of American soybean stocks, which will further drive the soybean price soaring again Tu8 market outlook in 2012, the soybean market experienced a bull bear transition in the market, from a historical high to a sharp decline in the market also brought more opportunities to the market Looking forward to 2013, global soybean supply and demand speculation will still dominate the market It is expected that before the first quarter, the global soybean inventory will be strained due to the 2011 / 2012 soybean production reduction in the north and South America, and the soybean prices at home and abroad will remain relatively firm After the first quarter, with the listing of New South American beans, the global soybean market supply pattern will change In addition, the slowdown of China's economic growth and the decrease of protein and oil demand will restrain soybean demand Unless there are problems with weather and production in South America, the soybean market will mainly fluctuate downward after the first quarter In 2013, the focus is still on the impact of global weather and supply speculation, China's demand, domestic and foreign macroeconomic situation on the dollar and the overall commodity market After the seasonal rebound of U8, the price trend of three major domestic oil varieties in 2012 will continue to decline Under the support of the favorable factors of rapeseed production reduction fundamentals, the price of vegetable oil is the strongest, and the main contract price difference between vegetable oil and soybean oil is as low as 148 yuan / ton in the year Due to the negative factors such as high inventory of palm oil in Mapan and the decrease of domestic bulk oil consumption, the domestic palm oil inventory has remained high Palm oil is the weakest of the three oils, with the highest contract price difference between palm oil and soybean oil reaching 2300 yuan / ton Soybean oil is sandwiched between vegetable oil and palm oil, which is more affected by CBOT soybean and DCE palm oil Its price is milder than vegetable oil and palm oil After the hype of the weather in South America and the expected increase in production in North America, the international soybean market focused on the South American soybean sowing schedule and the expected output At present, South American soybeans are still in the early stage of growth As of the first week of December, 58% of Argentine soybeans have been planted, compared with 66% in the same period last year In addition, the continuous rainfall in Argentina will further delay the sowing, which will lead to the conversion of the original corn planting area to soybean The weather in Brazil is generally favorable for crop growth By the beginning of December, 84% of Brazil's soybean planting area had been completed, down from 93% in the same period last year The recent rainfall alleviated the drought in southern Brazil, and the planting progress was accelerated in the production area The dry weather was conducive to soybean planting Before the Spring Festival, domestic oil consumption slowly recovered According to previous years' experience, domestic small packing oil will prepare the source of goods for listing in advance Recently, the tracking data of domestic oil spot market shows that with the growing popularity of futures market, the main domestic port soybean oil spot terminal buying began to increase Since the beginning of December, the spot trading volume of soybean oil in major domestic ports has risen to about 10000 tons from less than 3000 tons in the last ten days of November Stimulated by the turnover recovery, some domestic oil traders began to tentatively replenish the stock, and the market expects the stock demand to gradually recover before New Year's day and Spring Festival Optimists also expect domestic vegetable oil consumption to shift to soybean oil gradually after winter, and the demand for spot oil market procurement before the Spring Festival is gradually improving Since June 2012, the price difference between domestic soybean oil and palm oil futures has been expanding rapidly after breaking through the oscillation range In the middle of October, the maximum price difference between domestic soybean oil and palm oil futures reached 2300 yuan / ton Then, driven by the rebound of palm oil bottoming in horse market, the price difference between the two fell to 1650 yuan / ton By the end of December 7, the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil futures of Dachang was higher than 1936 yuan / ton again, and the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil in oil spot market was 2400 yuan / ton Although the price difference between domestic soybean oil and palm oil in 2012 is close to the historical high point due to its fundamental factors, such a high price difference is more foreshadowing for the consumption substitution of soybean oil and palm oil in 2013 Pay attention to the new oil policy in 2013 The new oil policy at home and abroad in 2013 mainly includes the adjustment of Malaysia's brown oil export tariff, the adjustment of China's imported brown oil quality standard and the oil price limit order and other relevant policies First of all, Malaysia's brown oil export tariff is lowered, which is conducive to brown oil export Secondly, China has revised the inspection standard for palm oil, and traders wait and see before purchasing Third, in 2013, the domestic oil price limit may be relaxed Compared with 2011, the domestic oil price limit order has shown signs of loosening in 2012 Considering the long-term operating losses of the domestic oil crushing industry, it is expected that in the second half of 2013, with the recovery of China's economy and the improvement of enterprise operating efficiency, the national development and Reform Commission will moderately release the restrictions of the oil price limit order, which will be conducive to the recovery of domestic oil consumption and the good market.