Changes of corn production in the United States in 2001

Introduction: USDA's latest corn production forecast is an accident for most market observers Although corn conditions declined during August, the September yield report showed that corn production in the United States was only 28 million bushels lower than in August However, on the big side, the corn production in the United States in 2001 was significantly lower than that in 2000 What's the reason? The sown area decreased and the unit yield of corn decreased What will the market do in 2002? It is to let farmers increase the intended planting area of corn next spring The table below shows the major states that led to significant changes in production in 2001 and 2000 Corn production in the United States in 2001 compared with that in 2000 (unit: 1000 bushels) production change in 2001 Minnesota 957000 793600-163400 Iowa 1740000 1587000-153000 Illinois 1668550 1569500-99050 Texas 235600 163300-72300 Michigan 244280 179400-64880 Ohio 485, 100 437850 - 47250 Missouri 396110 349520 - 46590 Wyoming 363000 317200 - 45800 South Dakota 431200 394400 - 36800 Pennsylvania 137160 101920 - 35240 North Dakota 104160 72600 - 31560 Kansas 416000 393700 - 22300 Indiana 815850 874000 58150 Nebraska 1014300 1090200 75, 900 other states 4118637913-3273 us 9968358 9238356-730002 US corn production in 2001 was estimated at 9238 million bushels, a decrease of 730 million bushels Although the output is lower than last year, it is still much higher than the market forecast of 8.8-9 billion bushels Perhaps the most surprising thing in the USDA's September production forecast is that corn production is only 28 million bushels less than last month The reduction of crop status report rating, irregular rainfall and extensive reports of poor grain filling of corn ears led all crop inspection teams to generally expect that corn production in September will be reduced by nearly 200 million bushels Some crop inspections even expect production to fall by 300 to 400 million bushels! The core of the decline in production compared with last year is Minnesota and Iowa Together, the two States accounted for 43% of the 730 million bushels of decline in US corn production In spring, there is much rain in the two states, which leads to the lower planting area of farmers than the intended area In most of the summer, the rainfall in the two states is irregular, which also leads to the lower per unit yield than the trend per unit yield In the United States, corn production decreased by 3.6 bushels per acre as a whole, but in Minnesota, it was 17 bushels per acre less than last year, and in Iowa, it was 7 bushels less than last year Other important corn producing states have also seen a decline in corn production this year, with Illinois (5 bushels per acre); Michigan (32 bushels per acre); South Dakota (4 bushels per acre); and other regions seeing a sharp decline compared to last year These include central Atlanta States, including Pennsylvania, Delaware, and New Jersey, with yields falling by 20 to 32 bushels per acre However, in August alone, areas with significant reductions were concentrated in Michigan, with a reduction of 19 bushels per acre; in Pennsylvania, 10 bushels per acre; and in New York, 10 bushels per acre Although these states are not the most important corn producing states, they are the areas with the most unit yield reduction in August More importantly, these lower yields mean that corn consumers in the above regions will seek corn supply in the West earlier in 2001 Corn consumers in the central states of Atlanta are located in areas where corn is scarce, which means they will be purchasing corn from farmers in the eastern corn belt In those bad harvests like 2001, these consumers will start buying corn from farmers in the East much earlier than normal In this way, the demand for corn to be transported eastward will increase Although corn production is significantly lower than last year, the past month has been a surprisingly good day for some corn farmers The U.S Department of agriculture's September corn production report showed that the improvement of unit yield in the Delta, Southeast and Missouri and Indiana regions improved corn production In the Delta, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, for example, yields rose 8 to 12 bushels per acre in August Indiana's production per acre rose 5 bushels in August, and in Southeast states such as Virginia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, it rose 3 to 5 bushels in August As shown in the figure above, the areas with the largest reduction in corn production in the United States are Iowa and Minnesota Other major corn producing states with lower yields than last year include North and South Dakota, Missouri, Kansas, Texas, and the East corn belt (with the exception of Indiana) and the Great Lakes states Only two major corn producing states, Indiana and Nebraska, produced more corn in 2001 than last year.